What’s “Supercharger Revenue” on a vehicle with a lifetime of free supercharging? I may have barely passed the CPA (hung over), but to me that’s a lifetime of expenses paid by Tesla.
But to be fair, I recognize the Supercharger network as a “moat” for now.
OK, I should not say again that you might need to actually do your homework, considering that you're betting on failure. Were you not doing that, this point would be quite irrelevant.
Tesla has several distinct components for Supercharger monetisation, each of which has some permutations, and also several varieties of enabling technology:
First monetisation:
1. In the beginning of Superchargers nobody knew exactly what the process might be, and monetisation has evolved:
Free Supercharging For 60-kWh Tesla Model S: How A Lucky Few Got It
a. That makes it seem as though Superchargers had all expense and no revenue. Then, Tesla apparently allocated $2,000 for each produced car for their use, which was charged to COGS. Still older Model S and X have 'free' Supercharging for the life of the car. The accounting charges were de minimus, so have not been directly reported. The bear position clearly has grounds to question that open ended commitment.
b. Supercharger buildout advanced to cover most of Europe, much of China and Japan, not to mention the US and everywhere else Tesla is sold. That has become a larger cost for construction and operation. So:
-Model S and X changed to have Supercharging free for the first owner only, and new owners had to have a referral code to get that benefit.
-Model 3 has a pay for use model, as do Model S and X without a referral code.
-FWIW, Tesla Semi is to have a pay-for-use model also.
c. In some countries and some specific customer cases Tesla sells Superchargers that are then maintained. by the buyer. Prominent examples include Russia, Jordan, and several large Tesla taxi fleets (Amsterdam Schipol may be the most widely reported),
d. In other commercial use cases Tesla is transitioning to a pay-for-use model.
2. Establishing Superchargers as large commercial users becomes highly technical and has been totally ignored and unreported by almost everyone, but is perhaps the largest clue to how Tesla is managing Supercharger monetisation:
a. A notable feature is the steady conversion of many Supercharger sites to use solar power, while most sites have significant battery storage. Conventional wisdom vies this as a green idea to reduce long term electricity costs and gain plaudits with BEV fanatics.
b. The full story becomes highly complex and arcane. However it is absolutely obvious and hugely significant if one actually studies how commercial electricity pricing works. Luckily one specific case in Australia has been publicly and widely publicised:
Hornsdale Power Reserve
A month in, Tesla's SA battery is surpassing expectations
without going into the arcane details, the Hornsdale case is absolutely normal for electrical grid operation worldwide. At time when the grid has too much supply commercial users are paid to absorb the excess and maintain stability. At times of excess demand the same users are paid to supply energy to the grid. Tesla storage can react to these changes in milliseconds. By participating in such plans with Supercharger stations Tesla can reduce teh net cost of energy supply by very large percentages.
While Superchargers are not designed to be profit centres they are vastly more than they appear to be. If you read the Australian data, then think about how Supercharger installations with both photovoltaic electrical generation and battery storage can profitably support electrical grid stability. Finally, if you ignore the photovoltaic side and then consider massive Supercharger installations such as:
First look at world's largest Tesla Supercharger station in Shanghai, China
These have equally massive storage batteries that are grid connected, and are installed in large commercial complexes that have highly variable energy consumption, so those batteries can stabilise the commercial use. As you may know, BEV peak charging hours are cobra-cyclical with peak commercial energy use.
I am sorry that this response must be so long. FWIW, this is exceedingly superficial. It takes several weeks of research and analysis of commercial energy use and utility production/use cycles to begin to really understand this subject. if you do check out Tesla executive presentations over the years you'll discover that J. B. Straubel discussed this in detail in 2012, and Elon has too. Nobody but geeks and techies has paid attention.
If you do your research on this subject you might well discover that even Model 3 is really not the story, although it does qualify as very important. Tesla Energy is growing faster than cars and is becoming more important. Precisely zero securities analysts have troubled themselves to understand this, bulls and bears combined. That is natural because Tesla Energy is really a commercial and industrial category with nice sizzle from such products as Solar Tiles and Powerwalls. The sizzle is important, but pales in comparison to grid stabilisation products like Superchargers.
Finally, this is my opinion. You do not know me nor do you know if I am qualified to make these statements or even if they are true.
Doing direct research will show you why some very diligent investors are long Tesla. It will also explain why Tencent bought in. If you do that you'll possibly see why China is so important and why Superchargers are something entirely different than you have been thinking. You need not rely on my words.
