PHEVs are good in theory. In practice, you get the worst of both worlds. Low electric range, long recharge time, still have to fill gas, increased maintenance, poor performance, noise, pollution, etc.
Fully electric vehicles are the way to go. They are superior to gasoline, diesel, hybrids, plug-in hybrids, hydrogen, CNG, etc. And Tesla is the largest manufacturer of fully electric vehicles. They have a solid foundation on which to continue to build their business. Here's my view on the electric competition until 2020:
2018, Jaguar i-Pace, ~20k/year, Model Y competitor
2019, Audi e-tron, ~30k/year, Model X competitor
2019, Mercedes EQC, ~30k/year (?), Model Y competitor
2020, Audi e-tron Sportback, ~30k/year, Model S competitor
2020, (Volvo) Polestar 2, ~20k/year, Model 3 competitor
2020, BMW iX3, ~50k/year (?), Model Y competitor
2020, Porsche Taycan, ~20k/year, Model S competitor
This results in market shares for 2020:
Model S, 50k/year vs others, 50k/year: 50% market share
Model X, 50k/year vs others, 30k/year: 63.5% market share
Model 3, 480k/year vs others, 20k/year: 96% market share
Model Y, 250k/year (?) vs others, 100k/year: 71.4% market share
I would argue Taycan competes with Model 3 Performance. Closer in size and performance.
Model S is larger and not good on a track.
Ok - if I was a short, and I am certainly not, I would be looking at the strange VIN / delivery numbers that might point to a continued slow ramp of the 3.
What’s going to be total Model 3 production for Q2?
If i was a short, I would be nervous Tesla is changing VIN reporting to hide production for a Q2 announcement surprise.
As a long, I am nervous the VIN counting does indicate reduced production. Although @neroden convinced me that Canadians are less likely to report VINs #BlameCanada.