lol...your response is deflecting. It is fine if these are the items that aggravate you about Elon and his goals, but they do not have a bearing on whether Tesla will be worth more or less going forward.
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Hi, I’m a short seller
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lol...your response is deflecting. It is fine if these are the items that aggravate you about Elon and his goals, but they do not have a bearing on whether Tesla will be worth more or less going forward.
Analyst out with a note that rings near exactly true with what many bears have been saying for awhile.
Tesla stock falls after Bernstein issues cautious note on services margins, automotive gross margins
sundaymorning
Active Member
There aren’t bear analysts and there are bull analysts, it’s clear that this one is bearish. Wasn’t he one of the analyst who asked a boneheaded question on CC?
SpiceWare
Member
You're almost there. It's not an important metric at this time. It'll become meaningful once people are no longer waiting for options (Dual Motor, Performance, Short Range, White Interior, etc.) they desire to become available.
I changed my mind.
I love shorts. I love the fact that they are rooting for Tesla to collapse and go bankrupt. I love the fact that hook or crook, they would go to any extent to spread lies and false narratives to achieve their goals. I love their greed. This is what Wall Street is all about. Make money on the corpses of innovative new companies. I love shorts.
nwdiver
Well-Known Member
??? So if someone placed a bet that your house would burn down you wouldn't hold that against them? I would find THAT odd...
Yeah... the desire to see a sustainable future crumble so it can be sold off for parts is loathsome... kinda highlights the worst traits of humanity... the 'screw everyone else as long as I get mine' attitude is beyond pathetic.
$$$ is a means to an end. The Shorts have that backwards....
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Hating the scum of the financial industry, is a natural human tendency I would think
Not just betting. Betting is fine. But actively working to make sure their bet wins is what makes them scum of the earth. It is like shorts working hard in cutting the water lines to your house, so that you lose the ability to douse a fire.
Not just betting. Betting is fine. But actively working to make sure their bet wins is what makes them scum of the earth. It is like shorts working hard in cutting the water lines to your house, so that you lose the ability to douse a fire.
If by take rate you include the people who say "Yes, keep my $1000 because I do want to buy a Model 3" or "take my $1000 and apply it towards a S or X" -- I agree; that is a good metric.
Oh, but that isn't what he asked. He asked, essentially, how many people are opting to buy the particular LR, PUP M3 that you are selling now? He asked that ignorant of the fact that many other people are simply waiting for the $35k bare bones, or waiting for the $78k Performance, or they are already driving an S or X. An ignorance that appears to be shared. It was a bone headed question as it was exactly the kind of stupid misleading stat that would only be used to spin a negative story.
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Nope. He was not ignorant. He exactly knew what he was asking, and he exactly knew how to spin it negatively whatever the answer is.
If the reply was 30% (which is a great take rate BTW for just one high end variant), then headlines would have been "70% of reservationists rejected Model 3", possibly due to poor quality, increased better choices in the horizon and too expensive.
SpiceWare
Member
Doubt it's hate, most likely a minor variation to Upton Sinclair - "It is difficult to get a man to understand something, when his
that is the "expert" which also was shorting Apple (of all companies). Here is some discussion on his "analysis":
Analyst Toni Sacconaghi to Clients: I Still Don't Understand Apple | The Back Page | iPodObserver.
He is also was the genius about "too much automation" .
Tesla as everybody knows consists of 4 parts:
Fremont autofactory, Nevada battery factory, and service centers (I include here superchargers), Solar Factory in Buffalo.
As everybody knows Tesla cut significantly service sector (a bit more than 3000 jobs cut and relocation of few hundreds to other places). As everybody knows firing people is always accompanied by severance packages. Money. As everybody knows the restructuring started in january.
They have built a bunch of new service centers and desperately preparing their network for inevitable service hell thankts to the great influx of new customers. But visibly the main loss comes from solar city reorganization. Killing a whole bunch of home depots teams (800?) is no joke.
But Tesla finally packs solar in the one package with power-walls and autos, something they had to do from the start.
And please: he is comparing Q1 2018 with Q3 2016. Really? Why not with Q4 2006?
Anyway Tesla writes in Q1 letter:
"Service and Other revenue in Q1 2018 increased by 37% compared to Q1 2017 primarily due to higher used car sales, but
decreased by 9% sequentially as used car sales were lower in Q1 2018 compared to Q4 2017 due to a lower inventory of used
cars available for sale during the quarter.
Service and Other gross loss in Q1 2018 increased to $118 million as a result of the continued growth and maturation in our
service infrastructure. Our used car sales had slightly positive gross margin."
T
I agree with @Reality that Tesla's margins are unlikely to be as good as Musk claims. But the shorts are going to be disappointed again when worse than anticipated margins don't suppress SP. A traders job is to figure how SP will move, not declare how it should move according to their rules.
Tesla writes that the margins on M3 are bad yet (Q1 negative), which is the norm for any new model in any country. Will they come to the same 25% normal for S and X? No. The predicted m3 margin is going to be ~15%.
The possible reason to squeeze Tesla even by loosing big money is to dry Musk's financial bucket and to push him to IPO SpaceX. It's not that difficult to identify connections and links between attacks on SpaceX and Tesla. It's not about money.
Actually I don't understand why Musk didn't say B and didn't build a team of IT detectives to uncover massmedia narative around his name. The jerks circle is not that big.
Example of blunder: it's really no secret in auto-bussiness that Clarkson in Top Gear was collecting big money from european manufacturers to make "right shows", instead of opening it up he tried to use legal british system to clean roadster name (lol). There are more cases like that.
lol. Size of battery cell means nothing. Tesla has chosen a big bigger size because they had some spare space under. Diameter was maxed for optimal cooling. There is no other reason for size update.What is important for batteries is their chemical composition, quality of production, temperature management and electronic control. Both S and X have time proven effective battery packs.
unlike it's the case with all other brands you won't find complains about battery capacity reduction. What is the worst most of established brands end up choosing pouch cells which will cost them dearly. Apparently everybody wants to repeat Nissan mistakes.
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