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The best analogy I can come up with is the way a Blackjack dealer can throw one card to one player at a time. Most cars built during September are for US delivery, then October will be most of the exports and November a blend of what is left. Since the line can make up to 1000/wk then i have to guess they are dealing cards to one particular location at a time for best sales results versus most happy worldwide customers. October will be Australia, a few more to HK, few to Japan and Europe but November starts to grow more foreign deliveries as ships, trains and transport is more efficient with a larger bulk order. Musk did say boats going to China are almost all empty and I presume similar for Hong Kong. But they would't want to ship 10-30 per ship but rather more like 50 or more in a larger set. The US is still the primary customer base of Tesla with maybe 60% of Q3 sales being the US. But I think they will catch up on back orders for HK by year end, if not end of January.
while one region is getting cars, it gets attention and that leads to more orders and 3-4 month waits. It is not efficient for keeping store employees working hard for three months but rather for one hard month and two slower months. Maybe as they grow, they will have a smoother flow of deliveries. For example, my local US sales gallery has nearly 40 cars ready for end of Sept delivery. But they will be very quiet in October for deliveries. We just had a national plug on day event at the Tesla site and that may lead to a few more orders for Q4. Nearly 300 visitors. However, many drove in with their plug in vehicles and so prospective buyers may have been outnumbered by the already-initiated.
another business issue I must guess is that if they ran the line at 1500 per week they would exhaust worldwide backlog and need to rely only on new orders or loaner car buildout to go into an inventory basis. That is a dangerous position to be in as it would be a big negative for the stock price as it reverses the point about being production constrained rather than demand constrained. An eventual flushed backlog is a balancing act being carefully, uh, balanced.
@lx3h: have you heard any further information from TM about your delivery?
Hi, new to this thread. Nice to meet you all Tesla guys
Sequence # (if known, seems it wasn't issued after January 2014 deposits): 4??
TMC user Name: EddieY
Deposit date: Sep 13
Confirmation date: Feb 14
In-production date (when available):14 Aug
"TMC guess" of delivery date (will be adjusted until a more firm date is received from TM):
TM estimate date: Oct
Actual delivery date: 30 Sep or 3 Oct
VIN (last 6 characters of the long number on your My Tesla, My Dashboard, when available): P47165
60 60S 85 P85 P85+: 60
Seats: Tex SWh Blk Tan Gry: Gry
Decor Ycht P.Blk Ob.M Ob.G Lcwd Cbn: P.Blk
Paint color: Blue
Panoramic roof: Yes
Air suspension: No
Tech package: Yes
Dual chargers: No
Sound package: No
Sensors: Yes
Light option: No
Fog light: No
Center Aisle: No
Alcantera: No
Nappa: No
19"