HUGE DUMP of 2018 Inventory!

[PhilDavid]

I wonder how much of an impact the newer models (2016 - 2yr leases) will adjust prices of the large amount of 2015 inventory they already carry. Been in the market for an 85D/P85D lately and am wondering if it's a bad time to buy.

If you are patient for a few months, you can buy an 85D for the mid $40s or a P85D for the low 50s.

They have been artificially holding values high by limiting inventory but at some point they will have to sell those cars. With an increasingly greater focus on making a profit, it is obvious how unprofitable it is to withhold used inventory that depreciates every day it is not sold.

Now is not the best time to buy a used Tesla. They are just now starting to release used inventory that they have been withholding and 3 year leases for 2015 cars and 2 year leases for 2016 cars will all hit the used market by the end of the year. Prices will then trend down and stabilize and that's the best time to buy.

 

[Evil Twin]

wish they were all p100d's....drive the price down faster

 

[islandchick]

Thanks, Chris!

 

[ngng]

I wonder how much of an impact the newer models (2016 - 2yr leases) will adjust prices of the large amount of 2015 inventory they already carry. Been in the market for an 85D/P85D lately and am wondering if it's a bad time to buy.

It never hurts to wait for non-collectable vehicles. If you follow Tesla's CPO pricing you can get a baseline. With more desirable facelift models coming to market I think you'll see prices drop quite a bit more.

 

[JPUConn]

If you are patient for a few months, you can buy an 85D for the mid $40s or a P85D for the low 50s.

I thought the same thing a year and prices went up since then. Anyone who patiently waited at that time is going to keep waiting.

 

[PhilDavid]

I thought the same thing a year and prices went up since then. Anyone who patiently waited at that time is going to keep waiting.

Not sure what you mean by "prices went up." Did you mean like when they priced used P85Ds around $100K until just a few months ago to control the used car market by withholding inventory and setting prices so high that it made little sense for anyone to buy at those prices?

What some on this thread are saying is that withholding inventory to manipulate used car prices is not a sustainable practice as you are going to end up with a larger inventory that eventually needs to be sold and the value of that inventory drops every day. When AP2/Refresh cars hit the used car market in the coming months, it will add extra downward pressure on AP1 cars. If and when Tesla releases a meaningful AP2 self driving update, some buyers may not even want to consider an AP1 car any more. Then, there is also the Model 3PD.

People who waited out the P85Ds priced around $100K until a few months ago will now be able to buy a P85D for the mid to early $50Ks in a few months. There are already P85Ds available to buy today for the late $50Ks and early $60Ks.

Yeah, seems like people who did not overpay and were patient waiting for the prices to stabilize made a very smart call financially, as they can now buy a P85D for about $30K less than prices we saw several months ago.

 

[Cheburashka]

Not sure what you mean by "prices went up."

A Tesla is like a fine wine, prices only go up! Just check what people are asking for their cars on TMC!

 

[brianman]

( Experience: ) "Inventory new" cars -- especially right now while the full $7,500 is available -- can be a pretty sweet deal.

 

[Don TLR]

A Tesla is like a fine wine, prices only go up! Just check what people are asking for their cars on TMC!

Its those signed ones that really ask the big prices He still hasn't sold it

 

[JPUConn]

Not sure what you mean by "prices went up." Did you mean like when they priced used P85Ds around $100K until just a few months ago to control the used car market by withholding inventory and setting prices so high that it made little sense for anyone to buy at those prices?

What some on this thread are saying is that withholding inventory to manipulate used car prices is not a sustainable practice as you are going to end up with a larger inventory that eventually needs to be sold and the value of that inventory drops every day. When AP2/Refresh cars hit the used car market in the coming months, it will add extra downward pressure on AP1 cars. If and when Tesla releases a meaningful AP2 self driving update, some buyers may not even want to consider an AP1 car any more. Then, there is also the Model 3PD.

People who waited out the P85Ds priced around $100K until a few months ago will now be able to buy a P85D for the mid to early $50Ks in a few months. There are already P85Ds available to buy today for the late $50Ks and early $60Ks.

Yeah, seems like people who did not overpay and were patient waiting for the prices to stabilize made a very smart call financially, as they can now buy a P85D for about $30K less than prices we saw several months ago.

Pre AP cars were selling for low $30k (even P85's) in summer 2017. now they're low $40's at best.
I agree that newer inventory, especially those with higher options will face sharp price cuts (just like any premium vehicle) as the first couple years depreciation is the steepest and options do not hold their value as well.

What i'm saying is - The pricing cliff that everyone (including myself) expected the preAP calls to fall of that would subsequently drag down AP cars has not happened.

 

[Xenoilphobe]

Just wait... depreciation is just around the corner... when the P1XXDL comes. Frankly I think the 3 is going to drive depreciation on the AP cars now that they have competition.... a brand new P3D+.... no way I would buy a AP1 S, when I could get a an AP2 3 new for half the price.. Combine that with the bow wave of leases coming home... Houston we have problem... I still owe $60K on AP1 and its only worth XXXX

 

[ngng]

A Tesla is like a fine wine, prices only go up! Just check what people are asking for their cars on TMC!

Maybe if it's the "signature edition"

 

[CA_MD]

They’ve been saying p1xxdl for a while now. Interior refresh has been confirmed for end of 2019 and full refresh for 2021. Why release a p1xxdl with an ‘old’ body style? I say earliest p1xxdl is coming with the interior refresh.

 

[ngng]

They’ve been saying p1xxdl for a while now. Interior refresh has been confirmed for end of 2019 and full refresh for 2021. Why release a p1xxdl with an ‘old’ body style? I say earliest p1xxdl is coming with the interior refresh.

with the porsche taycan coming near the end of 2019, a p1xxdl makes sense along with the interior refresh as well.

 

[Xenoilphobe]

No charging network, no Taycan or anything else in my driveway..

 

[ngng]

No charging network, no Taycan or anything else in my driveway..

but for those who don't need the network it's a direct competitor. regardless, it should help bring used car values down.

 

[candersoh]

seems difficult to find a p85dL...is a CPO with ludicrous hard to find?

 

[hBomb]

I haven’t seen any in 2 months of looking. There was a 2014 that had the Ludicrous underlined badging, but didn’t have it on the Tesla.com spec sheet. There is a Cpo p90dl for sale right now though:
Inventory Search | Tesla

 

[candersoh]

I haven’t seen any in 2 months of looking. There was a 2014 that had the Ludicrous underlined badging, but didn’t have it on the Tesla.com spec sheet. There is a Cpo p90dl for sale right now though:
Inventory Search | Tesla

thanks. was hoping to see a bit more depreciation on those as i'd like to pick one up...

 

[PhaseWhite]

I think well see a shift of demand in Q4 when potential buyers start to fret if they can get thier custom order delivered before 12/31. This will lead them to buy inventory and prop up prices until 2019. Then there will be a reckoning.

I agree P3D is also causing a hit now. You can get into a new base P3D for 70k with AP 2.5 and essentially the same 0-60 as a P85D.