ICE Obsolescence

[eyedrop]

What are your 1, 2, 5, 10+ year predictions on where ICE vehicle industry will end up?

I’m personally very bullish on EV adoption, to the point where I find the 2030-2040 ICE bans in some countries to be unnecessary.

With the way the tech and battery cost is moving, I wouldn’t be surprised if manufacturers just give up on ICE altogether in just 5-10 years.

It’s a lot like the death of the 2 stroke dirt bike back in the mid 2000’s... Industry tech and performance moved faster than the EPA regulations and before you knew it, you couldn’t find a 2 stroke in showrooms.

It’s already apparent that battery cost and capacity will exceed the performance of a traditional car. 900 mile range in a $30k Camry 8 years from now and an improved charging infrastructure wouldn’t surprise me one bit...

Obviously there will probably still be old gas car contraptions in service. But the actual manufacturing and sales will likely be relegated to legacy/niche customers...

 

[adaptabl]

2040 at the earliest. There are too many with a passion for cars that will not give up ICE cars.

 

[suwaneedad]

It's game over for ICE, other than for hobbyists/collectors of course.
By 2025, mfrs will have admitted the end of their ICE mfg eras, probably stopping ICE production by 2030 assuming they can get ample battery supplies.
Because by then, it will be apparent to all that EV TCO is less than ICE TCO, AND EVs are safer and more fun to drive than ICEs from Day1.
ICE mfrs will help ease people into EVs by offering friendly monthly lease payments, not to ensure their compliance car volume has a home as they've done to date in the US, but because it's a low-risk bet for the mfrs to do so given the low TCO/high sustained value of EVs relative to ICEs. Example: if I needed a local vehicle, I'd go get a LEAF 2011 for $5k with 20-30k miles on it. They're available all day long, run as well today as the day they were brand new, and so on. That's incredible! And yet no one is talking about that yet.
I think the biggest issue ICE mfrs will have to reckon with is how to get their dealer network to survive given the ebbing volume of ICEs being sold/serviced, combined with EVs not needing to be serviced. I'm curious whether any ICE mfrs will turn their backs on their dealers (I believe GM pulled this off during the recession, as did Ford w/r/t some Lincoln dealerships) and sell direct, pay off the dealers in some way, or how this will sort out.

EVs are finally here for good. Let's see if it is in time to preserve the planet.