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If you find yourself in the position of needing to fully finance any new vehicle purchase, it is very likely that interest will completely offset any electricity savings!
If you have a 4.5% interest rate, the cost of borrowing $74,000 over 7 years is $12,400. Borrowing the the cheaper $42,000 vehicle is $7000 over 7 years. However, dealerships (not Tesla) often have something like 0% or 0.9% financing. 0.9% over 7 years costs you only $1,300, a difference of $11,100.
Camalaio, just a quick note, not sure if any other B.C. residents chimed in, but in regards to the step 2 pricing. Did you factor into your calculations that you were only paying the higher .14c price?
Realistically if the car is what bumped you up into step 2, then most of your charging has still been at step 1 and 0.09c
It might be worth looking at your bill and seeing what % of the bill is step 2 then apply that % to your charging costs. It will always be a rough calculation, unfortunately.
Great write up by the way! Fun to read.
Just imagine if you were paying $1.50/L like people a bit closer to the city! You’d be payed off even sooner!
It was amazing earlier this year when we were close to $1.90, everyone I knew started talking about going electric. (Sadly I think a lot have postponed with the lower fuel costs again)
I looked back at my spreadsheet and realized I need to make a clarification.
I included in my cost the benefit of having a free lease return. That was a one time cost that affected only me. I also included the cost of installing a charger.
I was truly trying to figure out the costs to me, and my number of about $93.33 is pretty accurate.
But when you back out those two items. The difference rises to $160.72 (in favor of Tesla). So the cost of owning a Tesla over three years is 25.7% lower than the Mercedes.
So the answer to you original question is: definitely yes.
So, what I am assuming will happen.......
Elon is currently trying to bring the cost of batteries down so he can bring the costs of all of the vehicles down. Especially now that he bought out/merged with Maxwell Technologies!
Hopefully what this will mean is that future battery pack replacements will be cheaper than what they are now!
My own penny by penny detailed analysis showed that depreciation is the single biggest cost of any new car for at least the first few years and completely changes the analysis. It actually helps the tesla a lot, since at the end of your analysis period you are left with an asset worth more than the subaru. For my usage case (45,000km per year in canada where gas is more expensive) over 7 years it made a LR RWD model 3 cheaper than a mid spec camry! Not to mention at my usage, if you follow the mfg recommendation the ICE maintenance gets very costly (though in my analysis I assumed I would do my own work after warranty, which I have always begrudgingly done). Parts for a timing belt/waterpump swap are not cheap! Engine air filters, synthetic oil, filters (which recently went way up in price)...
Put away your Excel spreadsheets. It’s about the drive. The Crosstrek is a good car but it does not hold a candle to the performance and driving characteristics of an M3. This is an apples/oranges comparison. If you want the most transportation value for the dollar buy a 1 year old Camry. An AWD BMW 3 series with twin turbo six is somewhat comparable to an M3....but reliability is a problem after 4 or 5 years. I know this based on much personal experience.
Your definition of “significantly” differs from mine in this case.
Tesla battery development is a continuous process, and subtle changes in chemistry (which Tesla has implemented over the past several years) can have significant real-world consequences in terms of increased capacity and durability. And that has nothing to do with Tesla Superchargers.
I also take issue with your earlier statement:
It is not true that at 12 years/300.000km a Tesla battery has to be replaced. We have extensive Model S data showing that after the first year of 2-5% capacity loss, degradation continues at 1-2%/year (it does not increase). Using your example of 12 years at 300,000km a pack would have 75% to 85% capacity which would still be useful for many people.
And as others have pointed out, the history of storage battery technology over the past few decades shows that battery costs have dropped dramatically. Over the next decade, as EVs are built by the millions, battery cost will obviously continue to decline simply due to manufacturing scale and will also very likely decline as new technology is developed. So it is clear that EV battery pack replacement costs a decade from now will be much less than they currently are.
Do you think that a decade from now, the cost of an ICE drivetrain is going to be significantly less than it is now? Of course it won’t be. In fact, as EVs gradually take over the automotive market, and the ICE share of the market declines, ICE drivetrains are not going to be cheaper and they may very well become more costly.
Your analysis neglects all those points.
I usually pay cash for my cars, but in this case I financed my model 3 even though I had the cash for it.
0.82% interest rate over 36 months. Financed $40k (USD) for a monthly payment of $1100. It's going to cost $500 USD total for the loan, and the cash in my bank account is earning 2.04% interest, so I'll be making money off getting the loan.
Dang, Tesla gives you <1% financing in the US? I did not know this. We're subject to bank rates here, I think the lowest is around 3.5% right now.
Apples and oranges (or kumquats) was my first reaction too. However, on reflection I see where the OP is coming from. If he wants an all wheel drive car then the Model 3 AWD LR is the cheapest AWD EV with an acceptable range that he can buy. It is significantly more expensive than what he would like to pay for an ICE AWD so the question is whether he can justify the higher sticker price through fuel and other savings.
I looked into whether it was worth getting an EV about two years ago and decided that is cheaper to get an efficient diesel (but instead kept my old inefficient diesel because it was cheaper still if depreciation is added to the equation). Two years on, with government incentives, acceptable ranges and the old diesel now getting expensive to keep on the road, EVs make sense financially. But I live in the UK where gas is expensive (and so is electricity).
No, Tesla won't match a rate that low. It was from a local credit union. Much better rates with a CU compared to a national bank.
I usually pay cash for my cars, but in this case I financed my model 3 even though I had the cash for it.
0.82% interest rate over 36 months. Financed $40k (USD) for a monthly payment of $1100. It's going to cost $500 USD total for the loan, and the cash in my bank account is earning 2.04% interest, so I'll be making money off getting the loan.
This seems like such an apples and oranges comparison. You're comparing two cars that are in completely different classes. No one should be cross shopping a Tesla and a Subaru. The Model 3 is more in line with the BWM 3 series, Mercedes C class or the Lexus ES.
Unfortunately there aren’t currently any EVs in the Subarus price range and you're not going to make up the price difference in gas and maintenance no matter how much Tesla likes to point out "potential savings".
P.S. " I suspect the insurance was somehow cheaper on the Tesla". "Somehow" as in "very likely". LOL
I don't know about you, but I don't shop for cars in a narrow price range. I shop for cars that fit a certain size (small vs. mid vs. large/SUV/van), and need (winter beater vs. daily commuter vs. family hauler vs. track toy).
Thanks for the correction. I misread your post, thinking that since you were in Canada you were using km.Hold up there, not 300,000km. 480,000km. The 300,000 is miles.
Those claims have some validity based on Tesla’s long history with the Model S pack and the fact that Tesla has built far more long range EVs with liquid battery cooling systems than any other manufacturer, by orders of magnitude in fact (the Nissan Leaf still only has a passive air cooled pack, which is a poor design that Tesla never used). No other auto manufacturer has anything like Tesla’s engineering expertise and experience with large, high capacity EV packs.Elon has said he expects 300,000/500,000 miles out of the Model 3 batteries. I assume these are SR+ and LR respectively, because they line up with the statement of 1500 cycle counts. That's about 800,000km for the LR. So yes, according to Elon optimism, the batteries should last beyond 480,000 by almost double. These claims are so far just claims (and they're not backing it by warranty -- warranty is only the first 192,000km with a qualification of 70% of original capacity).
Outliers mean nothing. What matters is the data. See Battery Survey « Plug In AmericaWhile we do have examples of some excellent Model S/X packs that have gone incredible distances, we also have examples of S/X packs that suffered a terrible fault later in their life that needed to be replaced.
Again, outliers mean nothing. And ICE cars with several hundred thousand miles on the odometer have a resale value of next to nothing. Buyers know that they will be a maintenance nightmare, and value them accordingly. In contrast, electric motors, properly designed (like Tesla motors) can on average last for many many years, as do the battery packs.There are million mile Honda engines out there, but most won't make it that far due to a variety of issues.
It’s fine for you to talk about your specific use case. I am discussing cost of Tesla ownership and the EV resale market.In my case 75% capacity would be no good: it's getting close to a new SR+'s range at that point, which we decided was too little for our driving needs.
One feature to consider, the air cooled HVB from Subaru is prone to degrade fast(er) if one is going to do multiple charges daily, drive in warm weather for multiple months a year. Don't buy the statement that the HVB fans turn on when plugged in for charging. Level 2 charging at 9amps will increase the HVB temperature six months a year. The HVB size (9kWh) and stated range (18 miles) is poor. The rear cargo area of the Subaru features an 8 inch rise over the "normal" floor in an attempt to fit in the HVB.
Thanks for the correction. I misread your post, thinking that since you were in Canada you were using km.
Those claims have some validity based on Tesla’s long history with the Model S pack and the fact that Tesla has built far more long range EVs with liquid battery cooling systems than any other manufacturer, by orders of magnitude in fact (the Nissan Leaf still only has a passive air cooled pack, which is a poor design that Tesla never used). No other auto manufacturer has anything like Tesla’s engineering expertise and experience with large, high capacity EV packs.
Outliers mean nothing. What matters is the data. See Battery Survey « Plug In America
Again, outliers mean nothing. And ICE cars with several hundred thousand miles on the odometer have a resale value of next to nothing. Buyers know that they will be a maintenance nightmare, and value them accordingly. In contrast, electric motors, properly designed (like Tesla motors) can on average last for many many years, as do the battery packs.
It’s fine for you to talk about your specific use case. I am discussing cost of Tesla ownership and the EV resale market.
My point remains: it is not true that at 300,000 miles a Tesla battery pack has to be replaced, as you unequivocally stated in your analysis. High mileage used Teslas will remain very useful vehicles for many people, as they will still be more than capable of handling the average daily US commute. The average daily travel for all Americans is just 40 miles/day. Of course there are people who drive much longer distances every day, as there are people who drive much shorter distances. But a Tesla with just 150 miles of indicated range on it will be a very useful car for many people, and in the future EV charging will be far more ubiquitous than it is now.