What battery capacity for the 2015 are you looking at? I would think even an S60 could do your daily commute, but you wouldn't have much play if you wanted to run errands after work, its rainy and windy, etc. Since you are in San Jose, I am guessing you won't have to worry about super cold winters taking a bite out of your winter range.
I am looking into the S85 mileage as my commute consists of driving over a hill and to consider any cold weather during the year.
Do you have home charging available? If not, is the work charging situation pretty reliable? (Like - they aren't full every day or have people unplugging others, etc.)
I work at ChargePoint. We have our Charging stations located all around our HQ, and we have DC fast chargers also available. Home charges are also available, and I get a discount price!
As far as depreciation - you are going to have lots of depreciation no matter what you buy with that kind of mileage. Model S's do take pretty big hits, especially compared to an Accord, as they are more akin to the luxury market, which is known for lots of depreciation. Tesla also updates their cars constantly, so your car may become 2 autopilot revisions behind while you own it if they keep their current pace vs a traditional maker which only does major revisions every 5 years.
Should I end up purchasing the vehicle, I plan to own it for a very very long time. My concern as you mentioned, that I would eventually be a few revisions behind with any software/firmware updates.
Life of the battery: you will have an 8 year unlimited mile warranty if you buy an S85 or greater. S60s had a mileage cap on their battery warranty, so I would recommend getting an 85 if you can swing it.
85 indeed!
Be aware of the maintenance/reliability issues with an S. While they do have fewer moving motor/drivetrain parts, they have lots and lots of fancy electronic equipment that is prone to go bad. Door handles, center screens, etc are known potential failure points and will be pricey to fix out of warranty. Some people have good luck and not many repairs, but it is luck of the draw. I had a CPO 2013 P85 which only had minor issues, whereas my husband has a CPO 2015 P85D that has had to be towed once for a failed power steering and is currently spending 2 weeks in the service center for suspension work plus a center screen replacement. He has owned it less than a year. If you are used to Accords, this may be a change.
Would you mind if I asked how much it would have cost you to make the above repairs out of pocket? One of my other concerns is once the warranty expires, how pricey will these service parts and maintenance become for me. Should I experience some electrical issues down the road after expired warranty, am I looking at thousands of dollars in repairs? :/
Now for something you may not have thought about: Autopilot. Depending on your commute route, if it is favorable for AP usage, you can really cut down your fatigue and stress levels using autosteer with traffic aware cruise (radar cruise). If your commute has any stop and go, AP really shines in those conditions. If you have high speed highway driving on clearly marked, not crazy curvy roads, you will also be able to use a lot of AP. Buying a 2015 will have AP hardware, and you should be able to turn on the AP software if the car wasn't optioned with it.
The first 45mins of my commute consists of windy roads through a hill, followed by stop and go commute through various freeways. I could very well benefit with the autopilot feature!
I agree with Hank - rent one and try your commute out. See how you like it.