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Is it actually smart to lease a Tesla?

Did you lease or buy your Tesla?


  • Total voters
    127
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One thing to keep in mind is that Tesla leases are not heavily subsidized like BMW/Mercedes. So in the case of Tesla, it's always more expensive to lease than to buy. Now of course you get guaranteed residual and there's no uncertainties in a few years, and some people value hassle-free return (compared to selling the car yourself) and leasing a new vehicle as good benefits, and the fact that you pay less in terms of monthly payment. Sure some people got great lease deals last quarter on inventory cars, but who knows what you can get in 2 years. A similar priced Tesla might cost 2-3x as much in lease payment. Just something to think about.

Those who worry AP2 will cause residuals to tank might have reasons to, but I doubt it will cause an additional 10k or so in depreciation. Tesla will still take the car in and go with a % residual (lowball probably but inline with you can get elsewhere if you consider the sales tax benefit at least in California where it's about 10%). Many car manufacturers don't even have AP (but newer models do) and they are doing just fine.

As for business write offs, you can write off both leases and purchases, so that's pretty much a wash.

I have had both leases and purchases in the past. In the 3 year leases I always felt it was a bit short. My cars were still Iike new when I returned them. 5 years though, is getting a bit stretched. I think 4 years is the sweet spot for us.

There are just many variables different from person to person. Go with what makes sense for you / your situation / your wife and decide yourself. Not everyone makes the most cost effective choice.
 
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This is the wisest move to make. The only question then is how is the Tesla on maintenance costs as you get past 3 years?

This the biggest unknown for us and yes, it does cause us concern. With all the other cars we've owned (mostly BMW and Toyota), it was relatively straightforward to track repair costs and determine when the "is it worth keeping?" curve crossed the "no" point. This is our second Tesla, having had no significant failures in 30k miles on the first and now 30k on the second, so we're thus far content to take a leap of faith and keep the car as long as we can.* There will be a decidedly noticeable uptick in concern in about 20k more miles, to be sure.

*Unless, of course, the lure of the Model X and now AP 2.0 compels us to trade our AP 1.0 P85 in on a new X. I'd be lying if I said I hadn't been considering it lately.
 
I just received quotes to lease on my yet-to-be-delivered Model X.

On a $111,000 vehicle, my 24 month lease payments are $1,600 a month with $6,000 down and an allowance of 12,000 miles a year. The interest rate is 4.32%. There is an overage charge of .25 a mile. This is on a Model X with a residual $75,000.

The three year lease payments were $1,560 a month with a residual of $65,000.

Obviously, it's a lot of money. I should have snagged a EOQ Model S lease deal, but I choked. There isn't a long re-sale history on the X. I am going to get financing numbers too.

By the way, I am dealing with: NA Financial Services | Credit Team at 3500 Deer Creek Road | Palo Alto, CA 94304. I applied through the Tesla web site.

I am tempted to buy, but I would rather get an updated model with the latest improvements. My build date was in September. Any thoughts?
 
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Lease.

There is a lot of risk to the car's value based on the rapid rate of advancement. Beyond the feeling of the car quickly becoming obsolete (eg AP2), there's a higher risk of manufacturing issues/reliability problems when a car is on the ragged edge of technology. Once out of warranty, it's a scary proposition for many.

This is especially true now that Tesla is done propping up resale value via the terminated Guaranteed Resale Value program.

That said, we leased our ICE cars too. Even without the rapid advancement always looming over your car's value, leases trade risk. For us, it's attractive to not worry about depreciation from any accident repairs or reliability problems that might end up plaguing a car we "invested" in.

The only way I would buy a Tesla is if we were the kind of drivers that tend to keep cars for 6-10 years. We aren't. We are itching for the latest thing within three years each time.

Looking forward to our next car with 350+ mile range, faster charging, full autonomy, etc is more fun for us with the stress of taking a resale hit deleted from the equation. YMMV
 
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This the biggest unknown for us and yes, it does cause us concern. With all the other cars we've owned (mostly BMW and Toyota), it was relatively straightforward to track repair costs and determine when the "is it worth keeping?" curve crossed the "no" point. This is our second Tesla, having had no significant failures in 30k miles on the first and now 30k on the second, so we're thus far content to take a leap of faith and keep the car as long as we can.* There will be a decidedly noticeable uptick in concern in about 20k more miles, to be sure.

*Unless, of course, the lure of the Model X and now AP 2.0 compels us to trade our AP 1.0 P85 in on a new X. I'd be lying if I said I hadn't been considering it lately.

If the rumor is credible that eventually the Model X would have second row seats folding down that becomes the 'killer app' if upgrading.
Our MX on order is our first Tesla and sufficiently satisfied with the feature set as is.

How would you potentially get maximum value on your current P85? I hear Tesla lowballs trade ins. Are people generally able to sell private party or get a better offer from Carmax?

I haven't even made up my mind if it's smart to pay the $5k to enable all the new announced features. Cheaper now but the stuff might not even be working or be legal when I take delivery in December.

I think in your shoes already owning a very excellent Tesla, I would wait to see what they do with the 2nd row seats and work out the kinks and legality issues with the new autonomy stuff.
 
I just received quotes to lease on my yet-to-be-delivered Model X.

On a $111,000 vehicle, my 24 month lease payments are $1,600 a month with $6,000 down and an allowance of 12,000 miles a year. The interest rate is 4.32%. There is an overage charge of .25 a mile. This is on a Model X with a residual $75,000.

I would lease (ie speed of innovation, depreciation hit still in flux depending of said upcoming innovation etc)

So I take it the 2yr leases are still available right now? The website only shows 36mo.
 
I think everyone has different taste/preferences, and most importantly money situation.

If one aimed at 100% fiscal responsibility if Tesla is your car of choice, the correct answer is just buy and hold from the numerical analysis. The opinion of some leasers I feel is they think their current Tesla is just a consumer electronic good that will break and you throw away.

Hard for me to fathom throwing down 50K over 2 years with no equity to show for after two years.

I do change my iPhone every year but the money is not in the same ballpark.
 
I just received quotes to lease on my yet-to-be-delivered Model X.

On a $111,000 vehicle, my 24 month lease payments are $1,600 a month with $6,000 down and an allowance of 12,000 miles a year. The interest rate is 4.32%. There is an overage charge of .25 a mile. This is on a Model X with a residual $75,000.

The three year lease payments were $1,560 a month with a residual of $65,000.

Obviously, it's a lot of money. I should have snagged a EOQ Model S lease deal, but I choked. There isn't a long re-sale history on the X. I am going to get financing numbers too.

By the way, I am dealing with: NA Financial Services | Credit Team at 3500 Deer Creek Road | Palo Alto, CA 94304. I applied through the Tesla web site.

I am tempted to buy, but I would rather get an updated model with the latest improvements. My build date was in September. Any thoughts?

How good was the EOQ Model S lease deal?

A Bolt is not going to be a Model 3 but here is my guess on what the leasing numbers would look like for a car with identical MSRP

Bolt - 0 down, 300 per month for 35 months
Model 3 - 2500 down, 900 per month for 35 months
 
The 24 month lease deal was a special offer in September. It was probably created to move inventory for the 3rd quarter. My delivery was delayed. If I recall, the MS P90DL lease was $900+ a month. It was an new inventory car with 1,400 miles. I think I had to put $8,000 down. I would have to look at my old emails. There is an extensive topic on this site listing some of the deals. However, we don't know if there will be any more blue light specials in the future.

This is my first time ordering a vehicle. I usually just buy off the lot and the final numbers are a surprise. I can afford the lease payments, but I don't have the opportunity to give them advance consideration. The careful consideration is what's killing me. Obviously, nobody needs an electric winged SUV. If I buy, doesn't it make more sense to re-order a new vehicle?
 
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I believe I am a better driver than any automated system.
No offense but (IMO) you're wrong -- if you mean in the absolute sense of "all the time". Unless you're never driving tired, bored, sleepy, or in bad weather.

Frankly, I think it's true of every human on the planet that drives more than 100 miles a year that an automated system can and will sometimes be better.

I would suspect much of humanity thinks as you've described -- which is why I'm glad to see this tech progressing regardless of that hubris. It reminds me of seatbelts, ABS, and just about every other tech that has brought safety features -- many people think "I don't need that", while I think "incorrect, all of us do whether we want to admit it or not."
 
The opinion of some leasers I feel is they think their current Tesla is just a consumer electronic good that will break and you throw away.
Speaking as a different category than the "some" you describe (I don't think it's "break+throwaway")...
I never really considered leasing until recently.

I'm mulling over the following:
1. For the moment, ignore model 3. (I don't have enough data yet, and it complicates the thinking to try to include guesses this early.)
2. my P85D will likely hit the 50k of 4yr 50k mid next year
3. I don't plan on having my Tesla daily driver (#2) out of warranty
4. option A is get the extended warranty ($4k)
5. option B is to trade-in [~July 2017] for P100D (range bump, slight performance bump, faster supercharging in terms of mph, autonomous-ready, HEPA, cooled seats?, etc.)
6. B1 is trade-in + buy
7. B2 is trade-in + lease

Whether the lease term is 2yr or 3yr, assume for simplicity that both options B1 and B2 would conclude with "sell / trade-in" the P100 after the term.


Does anyone have a spreadsheet put together already to model the impact of depreciation on option B1 vs. the upfront+monthly for B2?


Let's take a sample (I'll list the non-defaults in the configuration):

P100D, FSDC, PUP, HACU
Buy - Cash price $148,500
Lease - 3yr, 10k mi./yr, $7,758 @ signing, $2063/mo.
Lease - 3yr, 15k mi./yr, $7,836 @ signing, $2141/mo.

Let's assume you put exactly the lease terms mileage.
Lease 10k wallet impact: 7758+(2063*12*3) = $82,026
Lease 15k wallet impact: 7836+(2141*12*3) = $84,912

Let's assume depreciation is "only" $1/mi.
Buy 10k wallet impact: 10,000*1*3 = $30,000
Buy 15k wallet impact: 15,000*1*3 = $45,000


So what does the depreciation rate need to be for Buy to match lease?

10k: 82026/(10,000*3) = $2.73/mi
15k: 84912/(15,000*3) = $1.88/mi

OR

10k: $1/mi. + $1,445/mo.
15k: $1/mi. + $1,108/mo.


Ok so that's starting to look pretty close to the "$1/mi, $1k/mo." inventory discounting standard.
 
No offense but (IMO) you're wrong -- if you mean in the absolute sense of "all the time". Unless you're never driving tired, bored, sleepy, or in bad weather.

Frankly, I think it's true of every human on the planet that drives more than 100 miles a year that an automated system can and will sometimes be better.

I would suspect much of humanity thinks as you've described -- which is why I'm glad to see this tech progressing regardless of that hubris. It reminds me of seatbelts, ABS, and just about every other tech that has brought safety features -- many people think "I don't need that", while I think "incorrect, all of us do whether we want to admit it or not."

Thank you for your politely worded opinion

Behind the wheel, driving is my top focus. No collisions of my own fault over half a million miles roughly. What makes me better than AP is human intuition, predictive/empathetic sense of drivers around me and ability to adapt to non standard situations on top of defensive driving approach. I'm no Nascar driver not even close - but I believe this is a mentality of "good experienced drivers" that survived driving as a teenager that views automation cautiously.

I'm a bigger fan of augmentation than automation (key phrase is bigger fan). Backup cameras, parking sensors, 360 radar, etc I am very excited about but I do not believe one can give up 'manual' driving fundamentals.

Based on that, I am hoping to score a cheaper model S as my personal vehicle that does not have any autonomy functions.

Being married to a female Asian driver, I am thinking I WOULD trust Tesla's software to get her from point A to B better than she can however.

Unless all cars are 100% autonomous in 10 years, my children I would insist on them being fully proficient in manual driving before they let a car do it for them.

----

I need to go over your numbers in detail but there are a few financial details that may be outside of dollars attached to the car itself.

A - Full window tint on a Model X is $2000. That's thrown away in a lease.
B - Anything else like paint protectors, floor mats, any vehicle addition is also throw way. Or go without them.
C - I need to confirm this but insurance rates for lease is higher than for owning?
D - I just started leasing a Volt 2017 another family car/ICE car with 10,000 miles per year. I can stop driving the Volt completely if I hit the limits. I think trying to not under drive / over drive on the Tesla is more difficult? The option to drive less and not lose "rent" is also nice but I don't know how to value that.
E - Is it a unknown number to return a car with door scratches, minor dings, wear/tear? If you own it you can decide to live with certain damages.
 
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The 24 month lease deal was a special offer in September. It was probably created to move inventory for the 3rd quarter. My delivery was delayed. If I recall, the MS P90DL lease was $900+ a month. It was an new inventory car with 1,400 miles. I think I had to put $8,000 down. I would have to look at my old emails. There is an extensive topic on this site listing some of the deals. However, we don't know if there will be any more blue light specials in the future.

This is my first time ordering a vehicle. I usually just buy off the lot and the final numbers are a surprise. I can afford the lease payments, but I don't have the opportunity to give them advance consideration. The careful consideration is what's killing me. Obviously, nobody needs an electric winged SUV. If I buy, doesn't it make more sense to re-order a new vehicle?

Right and the thread you're referring to is how I secured a 2yr lease. Your message initially sounded like you currently had a Q4, 2yr lease offer, but I think what you meant was that you had secured a 2yr lease in Q3 and are awaiting delivery then?

@MKWing, I know you were not asking me, but I'll share anyway :) I took a 2yr lease at the end of Q3: $6k down, $745/mo including taxes. 2016 pre-facelift, 5k miles. I pulled the trigger early when that thread appeared...this was a no brainer vs. buying (at least for my brain...)
 
I would like to pose a question but set aside responses from two populations since the answer would be very skewed.

1 - Money is no object. If you can take a delivery of a 90P on Tuesday, and return it on Friday because the 100P came out I don't think question applies to you. :)

2 - If your business or tax infrastructure allows you to write off most if not all of the lease,this question would not apply to you. :)

My wife was telling me "you should have leased instead of bought the Model X because technology changes all the time". This was in response to the AP2.0 announcement yesterday.

I told my wife no because "THE LEASE IS FRIEKEN EXPENSIVE AND YOU HAVE NOTHING TO SHOW FOR THE FRIEKEN EXPENSIVE PAYMENT".

Model X 75D - Cash Price = 93,500

Lease for 15,000 Miles (Why wouldn't you drive this thing every chance you could get?)

5500 Upfront Cash
1400 every month * 35 = 49,000
Cost to lease for 3 years = 54,500

vs

Cash Price 93,500*(1.08 for tax) - 10,000 for Federal and California Rebate = 90,980.

Subtracting the difference, I cannot see the Model X being worth only $36,480 after 3 years. I can drive it for as little as I want and as much as I want for miles. Without seeing a lease contract the residual has got to be higher than $36,480 as well if you wanted to buy it out.

Hypothetically, If leased for 2 more years at $1,400 per month that would be $33,600. 54,500 + 33,600 = 88.100

For just two more years of payments, you'd own the car outright, have the equity and no car payment. You would have the option of driving it to the ground or still have some value > 0 after 5 years.

I can't see any kind of upgrades worth losing so much equity over.

On the other hand. I have a 36 month lease on a 2017 Volt Premier with all options.

$299 per month for 35 months, *0* money down. I can deal with 0 equity for the cost of $10,500 over 3 years for the right to exchange into a 2020 Volt if I chose to do that path.

Am I making sense.. or missing anything in my calculations?

Lease vs purchase is just a way to finance / business question. All things factor in. Even #1 doesn't make sense. Those people didn't get to be #1 scenario without analyzing things (unless it was given to them).

My option was just simply did Tesla mess up residual amount by $18,000. I guessed no and purchased. Not sure who was right yet.

Is it impossible to lease a Tesla in Georgia?
 
I've never been lucky enough to get a nickel extra for add-ons at trade-in OR private sale time. So in my experience stuff like Tint or protection films are throw aways in both cases.


Thank you for your politely worded opinion

Behind the wheel, driving is my top focus. No collisions of my own fault over half a million miles roughly. What makes me better than AP is human intuition, predictive/empathetic sense of drivers around me and ability to adapt to non standard situations on top of defensive driving approach. I'm no Nascar driver not even close - but I believe this is a mentality of "good experienced drivers" that survived driving as a teenager that views automation cautiously.

I'm a bigger fan of augmentation than automation (key phrase is bigger fan). Backup cameras, parking sensors, 360 radar, etc I am very excited about but I do not believe one can give up 'manual' driving fundamentals.

Based on that, I am hoping to score a cheaper model S as my personal vehicle that does not have any autonomy functions.

Being married to a female Asian driver, I am thinking I WOULD trust Tesla's software to get her from point A to B better than she can however.

Unless all cars are 100% autonomous in 10 years, my children I would insist on them being fully proficient in manual driving before they let a car do it for them.

----

I need to go over your numbers in detail but there are a few financial details that may be outside of dollars attached to the car itself.

A - Full window tint on a Model X is $2000. That's thrown away in a lease.
B - Anything else like paint protectors, floor mats, any vehicle addition is also throw way. Or go without them.
C - I need to confirm this but insurance rates for lease is higher than for owning?
D - I just started leasing a Volt 2017 another family car/ICE car with 10,000 miles per year. I can stop driving the Volt completely if I hit the limits. I think trying to not under drive / over drive on the Tesla is more difficult? The option to drive less and not lose "rent" is also nice but I don't know how to value that.
E - Is it a unknown number to return a car with door scratches, minor dings, wear/tear? If you own it you can decide to live with certain damages.
 
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Every time I needed a new car for the past 40 years, I've done the "lease vs. buy" calculation. It's always come out that leasing is more expensive.
When you think about it, the leasing company doesn't have any magic access to lower cost of money or higher resale prices. (The only exception would be manufacturer subsidized leases.) The leasing company has to take all the risk and they add on their profit. They also have to account for the high depreciation of the car in the first three years.
Leasing is only for times when you want a car for a short time (so you can always have the latest and greatest) or when you can write off a business expense. But it always ends up being more expensive.
I also tend to keep my cars a long time. My current second car is a 17 year old Land Rover which costs me close to nothing to maintain... my total maintenance expenses for the LR over the past 5 years have been less than $1000 although one year prior to that had expenses of $5000. Total maintenance for 17 years has been less than $10,000.
I'll keep my Tesla for a long time, too. The aluminum body and simple electric drive train should last a long time. Software updates will keep adding features within the limits of the hardware. I'm not sure I want full autonomous driving but I can make that decision when my Model 3 is delivered.
 
Right and the thread you're referring to is how I secured a 2yr lease. Your message initially sounded like you currently had a Q4, 2yr lease offer, but I think what you meant was that you had secured a 2yr lease in Q3 and are awaiting delivery then?

@MKWing, I know you were not asking me, but I'll share anyway :) I took a 2yr lease at the end of Q3: $6k down, $745/mo including taxes. 2016 pre-facelift, 5k miles. I pulled the trigger early when that thread appeared...this was a no brainer vs. buying (at least for my brain...)
You're correct. I ordered in Q3. My delivery is in November.
 
Just to clarify a few things on how leases actually work:

With a lease, you have most of the same options as with a purchase. You can get rid of the car anytime by selling it to someone privately, just like a purchase. You're not bound to the time frame of the lease. You cannot trade it back into Tesla, but that is likely not a smart move with a purchase anyway.

If the lease residual is low, then you can sell the car on the open market and pocket the difference. So, if the cars are holding up well but lease residuals don't reflect that (unusual), you can take advantage of that gap any time or at lease end.

Assuming one plans to trade, sell, or otherwise part with a still-functioning car, you are equally responsible for the condition of the car to the car's next owner. The difference is under a lease, you have an upfront offer to buy the car back from the leaser. Again, you are not obligated to pass the car on to that next owner. You can find a different one. Any next owner will inspect the car and judge it's worth based on its condition.

A lease trades the risk of ownership for the interest payment. In Tesla's case the lease rate is 4.3% and the buy rate is 1.5%. So it's more expensive to lease. The reason for that is Tesla is hedging against the car potentially depreciating more than anticipated.

If you buy, you're just saying you're more comfortable with that risk than Tesla is. If you tend to keep your car for a long time, that's probably a wise choice. If you keep your car for 4 years or less, it may be a better idea to lease it.

It's almost never a good idea to keep the car at the end of a lease, so you aren't concerned with the residual value except to the extent it impacts your payments, or if you want to try to sell the car yourself instead of returning it to turn a profit.

Generally leases are a good fit if you prefer to drive the latest model, don't want to worry about the resale value of your car (eg if the car is crashed and needs paint work or there's widespread mechanical issues affecting resale -- this will not affect you at all, unlike if you own the car), and don't generally drive too many miles more than granted in the lease. (.25 per mile overage can get expensive).



Buying the car will always be more flexible - with a lease you have to return the car close to the agreed on period, but you can trade a car you bought the month after or ten years later.

With a lease, you're betting the car will be worth less than the residual at the end, the company is being it'll be worth more.

Teslas have historically held up very well for their price class once you factor in the rebates I believe - but from what I've read that hasn't usually been reflected in the lease residuals.

I personally am not comfortable with leasing - always being responsible to someone else for the condition of the car, having to live within mileage limits (like most other new Tesla owners, I'm finding I drive it more than past cars,) and paying out money for years with no result to show for it, but if you understand what you're getting in to and it makes sense to you, great. :)
 
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I've never been lucky enough to get a nickel extra for add-ons at trade-in OR private sale time. So in my experience stuff like Tint or protection films are throw aways in both cases.

If you kept your car longer than 3 years, you can average out your costs longer. If the protection film ends up not damaged at all after 3 years, you still have awesome flawless paint. Even less reason to let your car go.


Every time I needed a new car for the past 40 years, I've done the "lease vs. buy" calculation. It's always come out that leasing is more expensive.
When you think about it, the leasing company doesn't have any magic access to lower cost of money or higher resale prices. (The only exception would be manufacturer subsidized leases.) The leasing company has to take all the risk and they add on their profit. They also have to account for the high depreciation of the car in the first three years.
Leasing is only for times when you want a car for a short time (so you can always have the latest and greatest) or when you can write off a business expense. But it always ends up being more expensive.
I also tend to keep my cars a long time. My current second car is a 17 year old Land Rover which costs me close to nothing to maintain... my total maintenance expenses for the LR over the past 5 years have been less than $1000 although one year prior to that had expenses of $5000. Total maintenance for 17 years has been less than $10,000.
I'll keep my Tesla for a long time, too. The aluminum body and simple electric drive train should last a long time. Software updates will keep adding features within the limits of the hardware. I'm not sure I want full autonomous driving but I can make that decision when my Model 3 is delivered.

I have a fully loaded Volt 2017 Premier I leased for 303 per month with 0 down. $10,605 over the course of 3 years. I believe I would end up way ahead than an outright purchase. A Tesla with the same MSRP would cost around 1200 per month. Tesla profits handsomely on their leases.

Just to clarify a few things on how leases actually work:

With a lease, you have most of the same options as with a purchase. You can get rid of the car anytime by selling it to someone privately, just like a purchase. You're not bound to the time frame of the lease. You cannot trade it back into Tesla, but that is likely not a smart move with a purchase anyway.

If the lease residual is low, then you can sell the car on the open market and pocket the difference. So, if the cars are holding up well but lease residuals don't reflect that (unusual), you can take advantage of that gap any time or at lease end.

Assuming one plans to trade, sell, or otherwise part with a still-functioning car, you are equally responsible for the condition of the car to the car's next owner. The difference is under a lease, you have an upfront offer to buy the car back from the leaser. Again, you are not obligated to pass the car on to that next owner. You can find a different one. Any next owner will inspect the car and judge it's worth based on its condition.

A lease trades the risk of ownership for the interest payment. In Tesla's case the lease rate is 4.3% and the buy rate is 1.5%. So it's more expensive to lease. The reason for that is Tesla is hedging against the car potentially depreciating more than anticipated.

If you buy, you're just saying you're more comfortable with that risk than Tesla is. If you tend to keep your car for a long time, that's probably a wise choice. If you keep your car for 4 years or less, it may be a better idea to lease it.

It's almost never a good idea to keep the car at the end of a lease, so you aren't concerned with the residual value except to the extent it impacts your payments, or if you want to try to sell the car yourself instead of returning it to turn a profit.

Generally leases are a good fit if you prefer to drive the latest model, don't want to worry about the resale value of your car (eg if the car is crashed and needs paint work or there's widespread mechanical issues affecting resale -- this will not affect you at all, unlike if you own the car), and don't generally drive too many miles more than granted in the lease. (.25 per mile overage can get expensive).

Great angle of looking at things. Before I return any lease vehicles I'll check how much its worth and see if there a possible arbitrage play My question is are people generally able to sell their Teslas privately if they wanted to? The potential market pool is not very large compared to say selling a CIvic. And this is just a guess from my part but my 'sense' is that people would rather get Teslas's from Tesla themselves. Either new or CPO.