It's the Batteries, Stupid!

[JRP3]

Au contraire, if you can recharge a 150 mile pack in 3 minutes without significant negative impacts, you've got all of the benefits of battery swapping except much cheaper. Though the wiring for that would need to be able to handle ~2 kA at 400 V. Still cheaper than a battery swap.

OK, how about 5 minutes? Because that's already possible with Altairnano's and maybe SCIB's. But guess what? Their energy density is too low and their cost is way to high. So my point remains, improving charge times beyond what is already possible is pointless without lower cost and better energy density.

- - - Updated - - -

Yes, I agree, after driving out to Wenatchee and down to Portland in the Leaf, Quick charging becomes even more important.

Unless the battery is cheap enough and energy dense enough to double or triple your range.

 

[stopcrazypp]

Fast charging and larger batteries are the key to mass adoption, period.

Don't really agree. Fast charging (on the order of minutes, not the half hour that is already commonly possible) and larger batteries (hundreds of miles) are the key to converting the people who need to travel on longer trips, but is not necessary for mass adoption.

Cheaper prices on the other hand are necessary to mass adoption. The Leaf sells the way it sells mainly because of the price. A $60-100k EV like the Model S will never have "mass adoption" even if it can charge in 1 minute and can go 500 miles on a charge, simply because it is priced out of the "mass market". So the push to lower $/kWh is much more important than the push for faster charging speed (or even density, although density improvements usually go hand-in-hand with $/kWh improvements).

Even with no improvements in technology, if battery prices improve to the point where a car with the same capabilities of the 85kWh Model S (265 mile range, 265mph charging, NOT necessarily the same luxury features and body) costs $20-30k, BEVs can already reach mass adoption.

 

[EVNow]

I've always said mass market needs ...
- 3 hours of freeway driving
- 15 minutes charging
- A camry sized car for camry sized price

 

[rcc]

Don't really agree. Fast charging (on the order of minutes, not the half hour that is already commonly possible) and larger batteries (hundreds of miles) are the key to converting the people who need to travel on longer trips, but is not necessary for mass adoption.

Cheaper prices on the other hand are necessary to mass adoption. The Leaf sells the way it sells mainly because of the price. A $60-100k EV like the Model S will never have "mass adoption" even if it can charge in 1 minute and can go 500 miles on a charge, simply because it is priced out of the "mass market". So the push to lower $/kWh is much more important than the push for faster charging speed (or even density, although density improvements usually go hand-in-hand with $/kWh improvements).

Even with no improvements in technology, if battery prices improve to the point where a car with the same capabilities of the 85kWh Model S (265 mile range, 265mph charging, NOT necessarily the same luxury features and body) costs $20-30k, BEVs can already reach mass adoption.

And you've just laid out the business logic of the GenIII. How many miles of range at $30K, $40K and $50K will it take to be able to sell a reasonable numbers of them? My guess is Tesla needs to come in above 200 miles of range for a model to sell well (get some kind of mass adoption). So the winning combination would be 200 miles of range at $30K. But I they'll need to wait 5 years or more for that. So my guess is ~200 miles of range at $40K. Say, ~140 miles at $30K. And >250 miles at $50K. That positions the car right at the BMW 3-series.

And in 10 years, a 200 mile range at $30K should definitely be achievable. And that should drive mass adoption. I don't think we'll see the majority of cars be electric. But lots of families with 2 cars could go with at least 1 electric car. And many people with 1 car might go electric as well.

 

[brianman]

And you've just laid out the business logic of the GenIII. How many miles of range at $30K, $40K and $50K will it take to be able to sell a reasonable numbers of them? My guess is Tesla needs to come in above 200 miles of range for a model to sell well (get some kind of mass adoption). So the winning combination would be 200 miles of range at $30K. But I they'll need to wait 5 years or more for that. So my guess is ~200 miles of range at $40K. Say, ~140 miles at $30K. And >250 miles at $50K. That positions the car right at the BMW 3-series.

And in 10 years, a 200 mile range at $30K should definitely be achievable. And that should drive mass adoption. I don't think we'll see the majority of cars be electric. But lots of families with 2 cars could go with at least 1 electric car. And many people with 1 car might go electric as well.

Model S base prices:
- 49,900 for 160
- 59,900 for 230
- 69,900 for 300

Cut the seating in half (7 / 2 = 3.5) to a "tight" 4 (i.e. cozy not roomy).
Cut the price in half...
Bluestar base prices:
- 24,450 for 160 (31950-7500)
- 29,950 for 230 (37450-7500)
- 34,950 for 300 (42450-7500)

Again, I'm talking base vehicle here.

If they could manage to pull off something like this, demand would remain a non-problem for at least for decade. With or without cupholders or any other creature comfort beyond seats.

 

[Doug_G]

Wheels.ca Hydro-Quebec reserachers close to super-fast electric vehicle charger

 

[JRP3]

A123 new cells may eliminate temperature issues: A123 Updates Next Gen Nanophosphate EXT Batteries Solves Lithium Battery Heat Issues

And to say the results are encouraging is an understatement, they are ‘throw away your thermal battery management system’ good.

“In high-temperature testing, A123’s Nanophosphate EXT cells are exhibiting a rate of aging that is about three to four times lower than cells from a competing manufacturer of commercially available lithium ion technology. Specifically, in testing conducted at 75 degrees Celsius (167 Fahrenheit), A123’s Nanophosphate EXT cells are showing more than twice the life compared with the competition after about 700 full DOD cycles (at an aggressive 4C discharge rage). “

 

[brianman]

discharge rage

I approve this term.

 

[mt2]

A123 new cells may eliminate temperature issues: A123 Updates Next Gen Nanophosphate EXT Batteries Solves Lithium Battery Heat Issues

Just to repeat, that is 167 degrees Fahrenheit they are testing these pack ats; hotter than any recorded temperature on Earth.

I think they meant "pack rats".

 

[VolkerP]

High temperature in battery packs come from heat created by charge/discharge current meeting internal resistance: P = I² R. This heat must be dissipated to the environment. High outside temperatures hinder heat transfer. If there is no heat transfer, pack internal temp keeps rising just all the time.

While the new chemistry might survive the highest temperature ever recorded sitting still, it can die from lack of cooling when it has to deliver power or must take a charge.

 

[hcsharp]

High temperature in battery packs come from heat created by charge/discharge current meeting internal resistance: P = I² R. This heat must be dissipated to the environment. High outside temperatures hinder heat transfer. If there is no heat transfer, pack internal temp keeps rising just all the time.

While the new chemistry might survive the highest temperature ever recorded sitting still, it can die from lack of cooling when it has to deliver power or must take a charge.

Unless it has a really low internal R. Correct me if I'm wrong but I got the impression that was the case - it doesn't heat up much to begin with.

 

[VolkerP]

Googling 18650 cell internal resistance. Appears to be around 100mOhm. The Roadster pack is 69 cells in parallel x 99 in series, giving 0.1 x 99 / 69 Ohm = 140mOhm. At a peak discharge rate of P=215kW and 375V I calculate discharge current of 573A. This gives power lost to internal resistance as P = I²R = 45kW or 6.7W per cell.

I don't know the thermal capacity of the ESS but I figure it would get really hot after tens of seconds. Of course, peak discharge rate lasts few seconds, at most.

 

[Doug_G]

During a recent acceleration run, my Roadster recently (and briefly) generated 788.22 amps at 303.5 volts, or 239 kW*. Assuming nominal 375V open circuit voltage this indicates a 91 milliohm source resistance. This implies the drive train load was 294 miilliohms.

During 18 seconds at full throttle the pack released about 0.8 kW of energy, roughly a quarter of which was dissipated in the pack.

(*The actual peak was probably a little higher, given that the log resolution is once per second.)

 

[JRP3]

High temperature in battery packs come from heat created by charge/discharge current meeting internal resistance: P = I² R. This heat must be dissipated to the environment. High outside temperatures hinder heat transfer. If there is no heat transfer, pack internal temp keeps rising just all the time.

While the new chemistry might survive the highest temperature ever recorded sitting still, it can die from lack of cooling when it has to deliver power or must take a charge.

No, the nanophosphate chemistry A123 uses has very low internal resistance, as does the nanotitanate chemistry of Toshiba SCIB and Altairnano, which is why they can deliver and accept high rates of power. Googling "18650 resistance" is rather meaningless since it's completely dependent on the chemistry, construction methods, and materials used in a particular cell.

 

[YoungStranger]

Just published on Green Car Congress

Green Car Congress: NEC develops prototype 4.5V, long-life manganese Li-ion battery; 30% more energy density, high capacity and light weight

I thought I would post this, because whilst there are many articles about research, these batteries have the possibility of production by a large multinational in the near future, and therefore could be be purchased by Tesla. If so, a estimated 30% increase over the 320 mile range would be approximately 400 miles - a significant development (or an increase to 320 miles from the official range of 265 miles). If they are lighter that would help as well.

 

[dsm363]

Just published on Green Car Congress

Green Car Congress: NEC develops prototype 4.5V, long-life manganese Li-ion battery; 30% more energy density, high capacity and light weight

I thought I would post this, because whilst there are many articles about research, these batteries have the possibility of production by a large multinational in the near future, and therefore could be be purchased by Tesla. If so, a estimated 30% increase over the 320 mile range would be approximately 400 miles - a significant development (or an increase to 320 miles from the official range of 265 miles). If they are lighter that would help as well.

I wonder if Tesla is locked into the 18650 format cells for the time being or if they could easily make these work too.

 

[dpeilow]

This NEC battery is better than NEC's others of that chemistry, but not necessarily than the Panasonic/Tesla type. So we may see a Nissan LEAF with 30% better range but I doubt Tesla will be worried.

 

[VolkerP]

Adding 30% to 73 miles is 95 miles. Still short of 100. Sigh.

 

[Grendal]

Discussion of liquid metal battery on Colbert Report with Donald Sadoway:

Donald Sadoway - The Colbert Report - 2012-22-10 - Video Clip | Comedy Central

 

[Nh1]

Not sure if this is big news but it might help battery prices (and no 'laboratory breakthrough' stuff for a change). Also, model S gets a mention! :smile:

http://business.financialpost.com/2012/10/26/canada-lithium-will-produce-hard-rock-lithium-in-march-2013/