Julian Cox now on TMC

[fxfx]

You didn't deconstrcut anything there

I see Petersen is still pushing his false "400+ wh /wh of battery" which I previously deconstructed here: Garbage In, Garbage Out. Bad Data Leads To Wrong Conclusion About Tesla Battery Pack - JRP3 - Seeking Alpha
Anyone who still has comment privileges on his articles feel free to post the link.

I read your stuiff 3 times but apart from personal attacks i couldn't find anything. You can call JP old-fashioned or lacking vision but he is doing his homework and when it comes to battery technology there are not many people who know more than he seems to know.
I have yet to see a rebuttal to his claims that has substance and depth. so far I see merely name-calling and empty claims without much sibstance which simpl,y state that he has it all wrong.

oh, by the way, I am fascinated by the things Musk has achieved so far with tesla and I am sure as hell it is a great car and a great Ev company. I find the stock price silly, though. ( and yes, I do know how it climbed up that much and that it could go even higher for some time. But measured by its long-term earnings power (real cash earnings - not NON-GAAP fiction) the stock may not be worth even half - if at all.

 

[JRP3]

How did you not find anything in that piece? I pointed out the error Petersen makes when he uses a study that assumes half the energy density, therefor twice the material and twice the emissions. Other people came to similar conclusions as I did, as I pointed out. Petersen does not do his homework properly and therefore comes to the wrong conclusion, because Petersen is not the battery expert that people seem to think he is and he doesn't really know the energy density of the cells Tesla uses, nor did the study authors. Just because you like his conclusion because it backs up your irrational dislike of Tesla doesn't mean it's correct. You can delude yourself that it's true if you like, that's no concern of mine.

 

[Ryo]

Haven't heard from Julian in a while.

It would be a shame to lose him as a contributor to the forum. His posts are always so eloquent.
Would be nice to hear his thoughts to the most recent Tesla news/action. I for one am pretty impressed how Elon addressed the fire in his blog.

Julian, are you out there?

 

[Norse]

He is, hopefully we will start writing again soon.

 

[Julian Cox]

Haven't heard from Julian in a while.

It would be a shame to lose him as a contributor to the forum. His posts are always so eloquent.
Would be nice to hear his thoughts to the most recent Tesla news/action. I for one am pretty impressed how Elon addressed the fire in his blog.

Julian, are you out there?

I am right here. What do I think of the current action?

Well I think there are a bunch of external things going on that have depressed the price into the fill your boots zone (so I did).

The competitive advantage and the maturing of Tesla as a cash-flow positive and profitable business is growing unabated. I think there are super gains to be had when folk stop the distraction of shutting down governments etc. Hopefully that will be fixed on Friday and Monday will be most entertaining.

 

[vfx]

He post a long comment on the Short Term thread.

 

[tslafan123]

Julian, Personal feelings aside (if that's possible), what do you think of this?

http://seekingalpha.com/article/1745832-axion-power-an-extraordinary-nano-cap-opportunity

 

[Julian Cox]

Julian, Personal feelings aside (if that's possible), what do you think of this?

http://seekingalpha.com/article/1745832-axion-power-an-extraordinary-nano-cap-opportunity

My personal feelings relate to an annoyance with seeing people get fooled.

I have not read the piece on the link, I am not inclined to be bothered.

This guy has been promoting the amazing upside potential for AXPW bagging a great deal with BMW since 2010. The AXPW CEO has a very different view on the subject.

Nonsense, avoid.

- - - Updated - - -

P.S. Highly satisfactory first trade on TSLA surrounding the government shutdown and fire event. c$165 in leveraged with $175 Oct 18 calls, c$188 out. Realized gain: 133% in about 5 days. Next up, Q3 unless something interesting happens in-between.

 

[tslafan123]

P.S. Highly satisfactory first trade on TSLA surrounding the government shutdown and fire event. c$165 in leveraged with $175 Oct 18 calls, c$188 out. Realized gain: 133% in about 5 days. Next up, Q3 unless something interesting happens in-between.

Nice! good work!!

I am not that good of a trader. An ok investor..

I am currently holding Nov 16 175 calls for ER, which I bought during the fire sale. Not great timing but not bad.

I have been holding a bunch of shares since a while. The last set of shares were supposed to be for short-term plays, which too I bought for ER play. But now I feel like I should keep them as a medium-term play and hold till Gen-3 announcement (till early 2016 or so). The core position I intend to keep till 2020 or so, we will see..

 

[Julian Cox]

Nice! good work!!

I am not that good of a trader. An ok investor..

I am currently holding Nov 16 175 calls for ER, which I bought during the fire sale. Not great timing but not bad.

I have been holding a bunch of shares since a while. The last set of shares were supposed to be for short-term plays, which too I bought for ER play. But now I feel like I should keep them as a medium-term play and hold till Gen-3 announcement (till early 2016 or so). The core position I intend to keep till 2020 or so, we will see..

in general terms I would expect fire sale $175's for Nov 16 would be beyond awesome. Congrats in principle on your portfolio.

 

[tslafan123]

in general terms I would expect fire sale $175's for Nov 16 would be beyond awesome.

I paid $20 for them, the IV was way too high and somehow I didn't pay attention, nor I caught the bottom. So this shows my trading skills I guess

The core position has done quite well over time. 300%+ in last 6 months on a sizable position (a few thousand shares). Hopefully they will continue..

- - - Updated - - -

That brings me to another question, what do you think of Sal Demir's (2nd) pricing model? Many here seem to think it's aggressive.

In my opinion, I don't see a rhyme or reason for the chosen P/Es. But per my own theories, I still see prices in the ball park of his. So wanted to know your take on this..

 

[Julian Cox]

That brings me to another question, what do you think of Sal Demir's (2nd) pricing model? Many here seem to think it's aggressive.

I like Sal and I like what he does because his writing is accessible. Most of the short arguments are pretty basic quasi trolling and it is no bad thing to pour a bath of warm water on the conversation from time to time to even things out. That said Sal has more or less come to the same actual conclusions as myself for Q1 and I think for Q2 also. I would not be comfortable arriving at those conclusions by his methods and he would have a fair point if he said exactly the same thing with regards to me. Whatever works is good.

Regards to long range predictions, I think Sal is heading in the right general direction give or take an acceptable margin of error - whereby that acceptable margin is very large. Where Sal scores, again, is to explain his ideas with approachability and to the extent that shores up sentiment in the right general direction and provides a mass market counter to disinformation then that is a very good thing, even if in the event some years down the track the general idea was correct for entirely different reasons than the ones that made it happen.

 

[Julian Cox]

New Article posted on Investnaire.com

Tesla. A Much Needed Reality Check (in depth). | Investnaire: Focused Investing to Millionaire


A critical analysis concerning the validity of the four central underpinnings supporting calls of overvaluation with regard to (TSLA) in recent weeks.

Please note. The following article is very long and aims to address each of the following concerns in detail.

1. That all stocks are inevitably prone to a correction when they exhibit an unusually high Price to Earnings Ratio (P:E) and therefore the price of TSLA will inevitably fall.

2.The term “overvalued” applied independently of any valid frame of reference. That is to say in case of Tesla, valuation metrics that differer from the metrics that apply to the traditional auto industry are inherently unreasonable or absurd.

3.That Tesla’s faces competition that will catch up and overtake its current technological and engineering leadership and flood the market with cheap and credible alternatives.

4. That the TSLA stock performance is indicative of a bubble.

read more...

 

[clmason]

New Article posted on Investnaire.com

Tesla. A Much Needed Reality Check (in depth). | Investnaire: Focused Investing to Millionaire


A critical analysis concerning the validity of the four central underpinnings supporting calls of overvaluation with regard to (TSLA) in recent weeks.

Please note. The following article is very long and aims to address each of the following concerns in detail.

1. That all stocks are inevitably prone to a correction when they exhibit an unusually high Price to Earnings Ratio (P:E) and therefore the price of TSLA will inevitably fall.

2.The term “overvalued” applied independently of any valid frame of reference. That is to say in case of Tesla, valuation metrics that differer from the metrics that apply to the traditional auto industry are inherently unreasonable or absurd.

3.That Tesla’s faces competition that will catch up and overtake its current technological and engineering leadership and flood the market with cheap and credible alternatives.

4. That the TSLA stock performance is indicative of a bubble.

read more...

Terrific article. Well constructed as usual. It made me want to go out a buy more shares.
Your estimate of $210 post Q3 earnings, if accurate, would be very well received in these parts.

 

[JRP3]

Yes very well done, a number of great points made.

 

[Ryo]

Yes very well done, a number of great points made.

I concur. Big thanks to Julian for the time and effort he puts into these articles.

It's too bad the larger community does not get this benefit. Shame on Seeking Alpha.

 

[JRP3]

I've linked it in a few comments on SA where applicable.

 

[Bonken]

All Ive got to say is WOW... Its pretty much what I wish I could say to the shorts and the doubters but never found the words or the way to articulate... Extremely well done Julian!

Ive held since the IPO but after reading this I am seriously debating to put more money in... I just wish we could get this out to the general public in some way...

 

[kevin99]

I've linked it in a few comments on SA where applicable.

Yes it is a powerful rebuttal that will put all the FUD to shame.

 

[Soflason]

Another fantastic piece Julian, I'm hoping this gets republished or referenced in more "mainstream" media (or even just linked by TMC members to spread the word) so more folks get a chance to read your POV...