So, this is my first post here. I have been a reader for a long time, but I felt this was a good time to join in with my thoughts.
So, regarding what news we may get at the Model 3 event, this is what I hope for and/or predict.
I should probably start by disclosing that I am a share holder, and I probably could be considered a fanboy. Anyhow:
First, the Model 3 will be a beautiful car with great performance. This is a prediction that I think most of us here agree to, and that the demand will be high is something that even the most skeptic bears seem to start wrapping their heads around. My guess is 50k to 100k reservations the first 48 hours. 200k to 300k the first week and between 300k to 500k until the summer.
I do not expect the Model 3 the come with full autonomy, but rather similar autopilot functionality as the Model S and Model X has today. Not sure about if it will come standard or as an option. One of the cards that I think Elon has been considering keeping close to his chest is in my mind more likely to be if he should reveal that Model S and X will shortly be equipped with full autonomy capable hardware. I would expect another few years before the software is launched and legal to use. But of course it would be a great and pleasant surprise if this will be available for Model 3 already from launch.
I don't consider it to be completely unlikely that Tesla will launch four separate versions based on the Model 3 platform. First of all, obviously, the sedan we're all expecting. What I consider most likely is that the SUV version, "Model Y" will be presented as well. Further I'm hoping for a Model 3 as a station wagon and a convertible. I, for one, would reserve the convertible in a heartbeat. I can't think of a better driving experience that a Tesla with the top down.
With many of us expecting a large number of reservations, the problem that remains seem to be production. Especially regarding the batteries from the Giga Factory. If I was in charge, this is what I would do:
First, the bottle neck in the Giga Factory. Is this really an actual limitation? Both Panasonic and LG has provided Tesla with batteries in the passed. I would have prepared an agreement with both of them to buy their full production for the next couple of years, until the Giga Factory is up and running at full capacity. Elon most likely feels pretty confident as well about the demand. After all, the Model 3 is the most important step for Tesla so far, if not ever, and I really cannot see any reason for Tesla not to deliver above and beyond most speculations in this important moment. I presume that Elon is fully prepared for how big the success will be, and that he has planned carefully to execute on it the best way possible. As soon as I saw people starting to line up, even before the event, I would sign the agreement with LG and Panasonic.
So let's assume that the batteries are not the big concern. How could they possibly ramp up production fast enough? There has been rumors about future Tesla production in China and Europe, more or less confirmed, as I understand, by Elon himself. What would be a better time to do this than now, with the launch of Model 3? I would have prepared contracts to buy existing factories, and started very secretly to prepare the orders for the necessary machinery. I don't expect employees to be scarce when the time comes. So instead of ramping up production to 500.000 cars per year in 2020, wouldn't this make it possible perhaps to reach this capacity already in 2017 or 2018 when serious production is expected to start?
I would make sure to be able to present this news at the event. I hope Elon will leave this news for his last comments in the presentation. Something like: "So far we have 100k reservation, and if you're reserving your Model 3 today, as it looks now, you will all be able to receive yours in the first quarter of 2018, as we have just expanded our production capabilities dramatically."
What do you think? Does all this seem completely unreasonable or could this be a real possibility?
So, regarding what news we may get at the Model 3 event, this is what I hope for and/or predict.
I should probably start by disclosing that I am a share holder, and I probably could be considered a fanboy. Anyhow:
First, the Model 3 will be a beautiful car with great performance. This is a prediction that I think most of us here agree to, and that the demand will be high is something that even the most skeptic bears seem to start wrapping their heads around. My guess is 50k to 100k reservations the first 48 hours. 200k to 300k the first week and between 300k to 500k until the summer.
I do not expect the Model 3 the come with full autonomy, but rather similar autopilot functionality as the Model S and Model X has today. Not sure about if it will come standard or as an option. One of the cards that I think Elon has been considering keeping close to his chest is in my mind more likely to be if he should reveal that Model S and X will shortly be equipped with full autonomy capable hardware. I would expect another few years before the software is launched and legal to use. But of course it would be a great and pleasant surprise if this will be available for Model 3 already from launch.
I don't consider it to be completely unlikely that Tesla will launch four separate versions based on the Model 3 platform. First of all, obviously, the sedan we're all expecting. What I consider most likely is that the SUV version, "Model Y" will be presented as well. Further I'm hoping for a Model 3 as a station wagon and a convertible. I, for one, would reserve the convertible in a heartbeat. I can't think of a better driving experience that a Tesla with the top down.
With many of us expecting a large number of reservations, the problem that remains seem to be production. Especially regarding the batteries from the Giga Factory. If I was in charge, this is what I would do:
First, the bottle neck in the Giga Factory. Is this really an actual limitation? Both Panasonic and LG has provided Tesla with batteries in the passed. I would have prepared an agreement with both of them to buy their full production for the next couple of years, until the Giga Factory is up and running at full capacity. Elon most likely feels pretty confident as well about the demand. After all, the Model 3 is the most important step for Tesla so far, if not ever, and I really cannot see any reason for Tesla not to deliver above and beyond most speculations in this important moment. I presume that Elon is fully prepared for how big the success will be, and that he has planned carefully to execute on it the best way possible. As soon as I saw people starting to line up, even before the event, I would sign the agreement with LG and Panasonic.
So let's assume that the batteries are not the big concern. How could they possibly ramp up production fast enough? There has been rumors about future Tesla production in China and Europe, more or less confirmed, as I understand, by Elon himself. What would be a better time to do this than now, with the launch of Model 3? I would have prepared contracts to buy existing factories, and started very secretly to prepare the orders for the necessary machinery. I don't expect employees to be scarce when the time comes. So instead of ramping up production to 500.000 cars per year in 2020, wouldn't this make it possible perhaps to reach this capacity already in 2017 or 2018 when serious production is expected to start?
I would make sure to be able to present this news at the event. I hope Elon will leave this news for his last comments in the presentation. Something like: "So far we have 100k reservation, and if you're reserving your Model 3 today, as it looks now, you will all be able to receive yours in the first quarter of 2018, as we have just expanded our production capabilities dramatically."
What do you think? Does all this seem completely unreasonable or could this be a real possibility?
