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Lease vs buy - a spreadsheet

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I don't know how accurate this is. I have a 2018 model 3 that I paid 56K for (granted I got 10K in tax credits) and Tesla just offered me 33K for it. That's 41% decrease in 2.5 years.

I believe the traditional depreciation is based on private party sale. Check KBB for value and I see it at least $10k higher than what Tesla trade in is offering. It's well known the trade in offers from Tesla is terrible.
 
Leased once. Never again.

In my mind, it's like paying to borrow someone else's car.

You ARE paying to borrow someone else's car (in this case the leasing entity)...with the guarantee that it is new and has a limited warranty for the entire duration you drive it, and in 2-3 years you get to get rid of it without dealing with private party selling or lowball dealership trade-in offers.

I believe the traditional depreciation is based on private party sale. Check KBB for value and I see it at least $10k higher than what Tesla trade in is offering. It's well known the trade in offers from Tesla is terrible.

KBB has a reputation for not having accurate values...but the latter part of your statement stands true.
 
Question for everyone. I've made the decision to purchase. How much do you generally put down? Is it more of a question of how much you are willing to pay per month? Is there any early pay down fee to consider?
That depends on what you otherwise would do with the down payment. If nothing, then paying as large of down payment as possible make sense. You’ll “earn” the cost avoidance inherent to a larger loan.

With today’s uncertainty and low interest rates, I’d rather have the cash, to invest or just for a rainy day, and push the cost of the car forward. Having that extra cash now, is worth the extra few thousand I’ll pay in interest spread out over the next 5-6 years.
 
That depends on what you otherwise would do with the down payment. If nothing, then paying as large of down payment as possible make sense. You’ll “earn” the cost avoidance inherent to a larger loan.

With today’s uncertainty and low interest rates, I’d rather have the cash, to invest or just for a rainy day, and push the cost of the car forward. Having that extra cash now, is worth the extra few thousand I’ll pay in interest spread out over the next 5-6 years.

Agreed. If I can get 2.5% rate, investments will return above that and split the marginal roi difference.
 
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I used KBB but you can look at private party sales and it would be closer to KBB than the trade in value of Tesla. I believe we are talking about the same things.

I was speaking in a more general sense...when I was at a dealership earlier this year for our second vehicle and had the KBB trade-in number as a guide for negotiations, the salespeople laughed. They claimed KBB was always way off and that Edmunds would usually give a "more realistic" value. Those discussions were on non-Tesla vehicles.
 
I never understood leasing. I pay 750 a month for my Y...why would I pay 250 less to have them take away the car at the end of 2 years? It especially makes no sense now with rates near 2%.

Its like here take my 40k car away from me, but yay i paid 5k less over 2 years. Even if the car is only worth 20k at the end of 5 year loan, you would have saved 12k over 5 years leasing...so I guess it comes down to whether 8-15k is worth the price of driving a newer car for the last 2-3 years....which it is not for me id rather save that money and buy a new one every 5 since the changes would be greater over that timescale anyway.

Model Y will prob be the same in 2-3 years like the 3 has stayed the same since it was introduced in 2017.
 
I never understood leasing. I pay 750 a month for my Y...why would I pay 250 less to have them take away the car at the end of 2 years? It especially makes no sense now with rates near 2%.

Its like here take my 40k car away from me, but yay i paid 5k less over 2 years. Even if the car is only worth 20k at the end of 5 year loan, you would have saved 12k over 5 years leasing...so I guess it comes down to whether 8-15k is worth the price of driving a newer car for the last 2-3 years....which it is not for me id rather save that money and buy a new one every 5 since the changes would be greater over that timescale anyway.

Model Y will prob be the same in 2-3 years like the 3 has stayed the same since it was introduced in 2017.
You don’t understand leasing, or you don’t understand leasing under Tesla’s terms?

There are leases out there that represent the low-cost solution to many buyers, in essence locking in a desirable depreciation and corresponding resale value. Tesla’s leases aren’t those.
 
I leased BMW 330i for $620 per month 40 terms with zero down pay. The car is almost 60k plus tax. So leasing only paid half of the car value. The buy out option is 27k but the dealer told me they only pay 23k for same car so buyout is not wise. That's why I like lease. You only paid half of the tax.
But for my next M3 , I am not sure lease or cash. I calculate the lease total is only 14k difference vs buy after tax.
 
I am a big lease fan as I tend to switch cars frequently so buying has never paid off personally. I am set to lease my MY for 24 months / 15k per year / Money Factor 0.002019 currently and am happy with the numbers. I also worry less about the car with things like PPF or wraps as if I only have the car for 2 years it’s not as big of a concern for me. To each their own I suppose but everyone has to do the pro/con analysis for themselves to see what’s right. Hope this helps.


Are you using a non-Tesla leasing solution? I only see 3 years as the shortest lease. I have leased a couple of times and vowed to never do it again because I seem to switch up cars a lot and also hate predicting my usage. But.... have to say I'm a little concerned about resale value of the Y - seems like it would be like high end Apple Watches the way technology changes, competition is around the corner, etc. So wanted to consider again but I like two years vs. three...
 
Are you using a non-Tesla leasing solution? I only see 3 years as the shortest lease. I have leased a couple of times and vowed to never do it again because I seem to switch up cars a lot and also hate predicting my usage. But.... have to say I'm a little concerned about resale value of the Y - seems like it would be like high end Apple Watches the way technology changes, competition is around the corner, etc. So wanted to consider again but I like two years vs. three...
Nope...through Tesla. When you actually get into the application process you can select 24 months vs 36.
 
Reading so many delivery complaints from different sources, I am hesitated to buy a Y. I really don't need to worry if hood is aligned or not if I just lease. Also, if what Battery Day predication becomes true only 50% in 3 years, can we expect a cheaper and longer range Y will be available for purchase a few years later?
 
Reading so many delivery complaints from different sources, I am hesitated to buy a Y. I really don't need to worry if hood is aligned or not if I just lease. Also, if what Battery Day predication becomes true only 50% in 3 years, can we expect a cheaper and longer range Y will be available for purchase a few years later?
By the time you get to take advantage of the technology introduced on Battery Day, another exciting technology will be there right around the corner. Whether that'll come from Tesla or another automaker, is anyone's guess. That's how technology works. It's iterative and continuously improving.

Simple example, by the time the iPhone 12 hits the market in Oct/Nov, the design/development team at Apple is already working on iPhone 13 for next year. Do people stop buying new iPhones? No. They understand the cost of owning an iPhone and are perfectly willing to trade it in for whatever it's worth when the new one comes out.

Sorry about being long-winded but I say all of this because at the end of the day, do what makes you happy. I've leased cars with $1500 payments where people thought I was crazy but I loved every minute of that experience. I do understand being fiscally responsible and smart has its merits but what does it mean to save all that money if you can't enjoy some of it every now and then? :cool:
 
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By the time you get to take advantage of the technology introduced on Battery Day, another exciting technology will be there right around the corner. Whether that'll come from Tesla or another automaker, is anyone's guess. That's how technology works. It's iterative and continuously improving.

Simple example, by the time the iPhone 12 hits the market in Oct/Nov, the design/development team at Apple is already working on iPhone 13 for next year. Do people stop buying new iPhones? No. They understand the cost of owning an iPhone and are perfectly willing to trade it in for whatever it's worth when the new one comes out.

Sorry about being long-winded but I say all of this because at the end of the day, do what makes you happy. I've leased cars with $1500 payments where people thought I was crazy but I loved every minute of that experience. I do understand being fiscally responsible and smart has its merits but what does it mean to save all that money if you can't enjoy some of it every now and then? :cool:
Agree with you that we should not make decision based on next big thing in the fast moving tech world. The thing bothering me is so many complaints round MY. You can easily find tons of articles on MY quality issues. Is there any statistics if those issues are addressed at root?