When I purchased my model S recently, I was under the impression that FSD would be coming out in the near future, so I elected to choose it as an option. Yesterday I went to a bbq at my close friends house in menlo park and he is a lobbyist for uber/tesla/waymo autonomous vehicles. He is the one writing the law for it here i California. After small chit chat, i asked him about the timeline for FSD and he chuckled and said "Not for a very long time... Maybe like 5 years. Actually, probably closer to 10 years." He went on and said that waymo will be the first company to go full autonomous and the rest will follow suit shortly after, but that its again 5-10 years away. So now, I'm sitting here wondering if I misinterpreted all the posts I've read/sales person or if everyone already knew this. In 5 years, I will probably have a different Tesla/another car so i'm unsure why I paid 6k for it. I mean, I do like watching it summon, but for 6k?
-
Want to remove ads? Register an account and login to see fewer ads, and become a Supporting Member to remove almost all ads.
Lobbyist for tesla/uber gave me the timeline for FSD
- Thread starter CHINI
- Start date
My conclusion at this point is that the FSD promises are nonsense.
When a car can FSD, bring it. Otherwise, shut your mouth.
When a car can FSD, bring it. Otherwise, shut your mouth.
I agree that true FSD is probably still years away, especially as a legal option for driving. You should evaluate spending the $6K on what it gets you now - Nav on Autopilot, Summon (and "soon", Smart Summon), Autopark, etc., and an upgrade to the new FSD chip (if you have an older car). I have Enhanced AP with my current 2016 car and see no compelling reason to pay the FSD upgrade fee that adds no near term value. I plan to get a new S later this year and will consider adding FSD just for the existing features since Enhanced AP is no longer an option.
iqless
Member
Based on the rate of feature adds to Autopilot, even 5 years for FSD sounds very hard to me.
Remember. Between 2015 and 2019, the only features added to Autopilot were automatic lane changes and the ability to very slowly take exits and then stop at the end of the exit. That is literally 4 years. It's preposterous to think that suddenly they will start adding features like crazy and will offer FSD in a bunch of years.
I know AP got better inbetween 2015 and 2019 but it didn't add any features, it just got better at stuff like autosteer. It even removed features for a looooong time.
Remember. Between 2015 and 2019, the only features added to Autopilot were automatic lane changes and the ability to very slowly take exits and then stop at the end of the exit. That is literally 4 years. It's preposterous to think that suddenly they will start adding features like crazy and will offer FSD in a bunch of years.
I know AP got better inbetween 2015 and 2019 but it didn't add any features, it just got better at stuff like autosteer. It even removed features for a looooong time.
DCsportsfan
Member
DCsportsfan
Member
FSD is a contradiction in terms. Implies Level 5. Call it something else, like Incremental Self Drive or Progressive Self Drive.
Here's the thing. Many are not following the script for EAP as it is. They drive distracted (or drunk) and stretch the technology beyond its safety limits. We all know you have to be vigilant when using Autosteer and TACC, meaning foot next to brake, hands on wheel, and if there's any cars immediately around you, being alert and vigilant. Between AI lectures and anecdotes galore, including the latest from the purported lobbyist , it never has seemed possible that the Level 5 will be here < 5 years. Forget Elon's hyperbolic projections, it ain't happening, and if Level's 3-4 are launched prematurely, safety-related issues will skyrocket. Boy will the mass media jump on that. So, take a deep breath and reset your expectationonometer.
Here's a recent article in the Wash Post: https://www.washingtonpost.com/tech...hat-that-will-unleash/?utm_term=.bb22cddba041
Here's the thing. Many are not following the script for EAP as it is. They drive distracted (or drunk) and stretch the technology beyond its safety limits. We all know you have to be vigilant when using Autosteer and TACC, meaning foot next to brake, hands on wheel, and if there's any cars immediately around you, being alert and vigilant. Between AI lectures and anecdotes galore, including the latest from the purported lobbyist , it never has seemed possible that the Level 5 will be here < 5 years. Forget Elon's hyperbolic projections, it ain't happening, and if Level's 3-4 are launched prematurely, safety-related issues will skyrocket. Boy will the mass media jump on that. So, take a deep breath and reset your expectationonometer.
Here's a recent article in the Wash Post: https://www.washingtonpost.com/tech...hat-that-will-unleash/?utm_term=.bb22cddba041
I agree with you, and while I applaud Elon's drive towards the goal of FSD, Tesla and the EV market doesn't need it to succeed. As you say, if pushed prematurely it is likely to do much more harm than good as it relates to the long term viability of the company.
I have noticed some really big improvements in AP and NOP in the last week, and if the trend continues, even well short of FSD, then I will be very happy with the level of autonomous driving.
I have noticed some really big improvements in AP and NOP in the last week, and if the trend continues, even well short of FSD, then I will be very happy with the level of autonomous driving.
Let's break it down to three parts.
What you thought you were buying - A package that would allow your car to take over complete responsibly for driving within a couple years. Not sure what you were expecting, but Elon has been claiming two years give or take. Where the first year would be development, and it getting better. Then the second year would be getting regulatory approval.
What you actually bought - A system that would improve it's driving capabilities over time. Like enhanced summons next month, and then city driving NoA in 6-12 months, Where in all likelihood your would be responsible for any mishap that happened over your entire 3-5 ownership.
What your friend probably knows more than me about - The regulatory situation as it exist in California for self-driving cars. Five years sounds plausible to me.
With those three things I tend to only recommend FSD to people extremely excited by FSD, and want to partake in the journey to it.
What you thought you were buying - A package that would allow your car to take over complete responsibly for driving within a couple years. Not sure what you were expecting, but Elon has been claiming two years give or take. Where the first year would be development, and it getting better. Then the second year would be getting regulatory approval.
What you actually bought - A system that would improve it's driving capabilities over time. Like enhanced summons next month, and then city driving NoA in 6-12 months, Where in all likelihood your would be responsible for any mishap that happened over your entire 3-5 ownership.
What your friend probably knows more than me about - The regulatory situation as it exist in California for self-driving cars. Five years sounds plausible to me.
With those three things I tend to only recommend FSD to people extremely excited by FSD, and want to partake in the journey to it.
KimVerska
Member
I'm a huge Elon/Tesla fan, but I'm with this poster. My husband and I had a bet, I think it was back in 2017, based on Elon's assertion that they'd have a FSD Tesla cross the country with no human intervention, by the end of the year. Nope, I win, and still waiting. This could still only happen, assuming they get street lights, stop signs and turns worked out, with some serious fudging.
If you live in PA, you should be well aware of Waymo's machines driving around town. As my Daughter says, they are a real PIA bcos you never know that they will do next. Given where they are, do you really think Elon is gonna release much of what the common man thinks of FSD in the next few years? Maybe Elon is correct and LIDAR is crap, but one thing that Alphabet/Google has that Elon does not: unlimited cash to throw at FSD.
iqless
Member
And honestly, I AM very excited about things like NoA, traffic light recognition etc. and I can't wait! But there's no way "FSD" will be available in the next 3-5 years.
KimVerska
Member
Ha ha, yes. And there was some other discussion about autonomous parking recognizing ALL parking signs in the near future. I don't know which one is more whack.
henderrj
Active Member
Although I'm firmly in the "three to five years is the dream" camp, I do think that FSD will happen rather suddenly. The gains will come on in an exponential way simply because of the way programming is done now. Will be close then all of a sudden will be there. But, could it be 10 years? Yes, I agree, it could be.
And, there is not unlimited money going towards waymo. Alphabet is not going to send everything it has that way, they do have a budget. Tesla has a fantastic advantage in data. It's collecting it at a phenomenal rate. I think that's the key. I think Tesla may very well be the first to Market.
And, there is not unlimited money going towards waymo. Alphabet is not going to send everything it has that way, they do have a budget. Tesla has a fantastic advantage in data. It's collecting it at a phenomenal rate. I think that's the key. I think Tesla may very well be the first to Market.
Slowly more and more people are realizing that FSD anytime soon is a pipe dream of Elon's.
I rented a Model S in December and decided to buy one. Started researching in January thinking buying used between AP1 and AP2+ for the FSD promise. The more I researched and thought about it critically, the less I believed that FSD would happen anytime soon and decided to go for AP1 and save money. I ended up with an AP2.5 car due to the March Q1 sales push (big discounts on inventory cars) but I have no belief that my car will ever be self-driving, and I plan on keeping this thing for 8 years. Thing is I do a LOT of research when making big purchases, I bet most Tesla buyers, especially those who went with FSD did minimal research on their purchase, at least related to the FSD option they're buying.
I think throughout this year and early next year, the illusion that FSD will happen soon will fade away. Tesla knows this, it's why they've re-vamped pricing and removed EAP since everything they can sell is just an EAP feature. By moving that stuff to FSD, they can get a little more money because people will have to choose FSD if they want autopark, lane change, summon, etc. Plus with the new FSD definition, Tesla won't have to put FSD purchases into deferred revenue anymore since they deliver most of what the "FSD" package is now.
They also probably wouldn't be wasting time developing a pickup truck if FSD is anytime soon. FSD doesn't make much sense for pickup trucks, at least not if they're being used for actual work. Parts would be much better spent on building Model 3's and Y's to throw into a robo-taxi fleet if that was feasible anytime soon, but it's not. That's why they're making a pickup. They need to sell cars for everything OTHER than FSD, and that's definitely something they can do as the cars are awesome. They're going to need to somehow think of a way to back away from FSD without tanking the stock.
I rented a Model S in December and decided to buy one. Started researching in January thinking buying used between AP1 and AP2+ for the FSD promise. The more I researched and thought about it critically, the less I believed that FSD would happen anytime soon and decided to go for AP1 and save money. I ended up with an AP2.5 car due to the March Q1 sales push (big discounts on inventory cars) but I have no belief that my car will ever be self-driving, and I plan on keeping this thing for 8 years. Thing is I do a LOT of research when making big purchases, I bet most Tesla buyers, especially those who went with FSD did minimal research on their purchase, at least related to the FSD option they're buying.
I think throughout this year and early next year, the illusion that FSD will happen soon will fade away. Tesla knows this, it's why they've re-vamped pricing and removed EAP since everything they can sell is just an EAP feature. By moving that stuff to FSD, they can get a little more money because people will have to choose FSD if they want autopark, lane change, summon, etc. Plus with the new FSD definition, Tesla won't have to put FSD purchases into deferred revenue anymore since they deliver most of what the "FSD" package is now.
They also probably wouldn't be wasting time developing a pickup truck if FSD is anytime soon. FSD doesn't make much sense for pickup trucks, at least not if they're being used for actual work. Parts would be much better spent on building Model 3's and Y's to throw into a robo-taxi fleet if that was feasible anytime soon, but it's not. That's why they're making a pickup. They need to sell cars for everything OTHER than FSD, and that's definitely something they can do as the cars are awesome. They're going to need to somehow think of a way to back away from FSD without tanking the stock.
Tesla has not claimed FSD will be complete by the end of the year, only that it will have the listed features. I expect it will work about as well as AP2 at the start. It might be easier to drive without it than with it. But it will at least try to drive everywhere. Then over the course of a couple of years it will improve to a level that is fairly usable. That's what we've all bought. Heck, they originally sold this final part of FSD for less than EAP. Robotaxi would be great, but not what I've been expecting for $3k. Five to ten years for Robotaxis? I wouldn't be surprised.
Dithermaster
Member
Legislation should not stop Tesla from developing features. If Autopilot still says you are in control, but is able to do increasingly more complex things, it's still a great feature to have.
Tesla could have done better with the naming of their driver assistance and autonomous driving features.
With AP2+ vehicles, Tesla really has 3 levels of features:
Tesla has made two major design decisions not shared by the other manufacturers. They (Musk) believes they can implement FSD using less expensive 360 degree cameras, front facing radar and proximity sensors vs. using more expensive LIDAR. In theory, since humans don't have the equivalent of LIDAR, it should be possible to implement FSD without LIDAR, though using LIDAR should make object tracking (distance, movement direction, speed) much easier.
The other major difference is Tesla's AI approach with fleet learning. Musk believes they will be "feature complete" with the FSD software soon. This doesn't mean FSD will be ready - it means the major functionality will be implemented in the software, waiting for the AI rules to be developed that will actually drive the vehicle. Because Tesla has access to data from all vehicles produced since late 2016, including the huge number of Model 3's being delivered, Tesla has a gigantic advantage if they can utilize all of this data to develop and fine tune the driving rules. Other manufacturers are relying more on simulation and the use of a limited number of test vehicles; with Tesla's fleet learning driving their AI rules, it's possible that once the FSD software is "feature complete", Tesla may be able to move much more rapidly to safe operation (in driver assist mode) in more conditions than the other manufacturers.
Regulatory approval is an unknown - coupled with managing liability when accidents happen (which cannot be eliminated).
Rather than getting FSD approval for all roads and conditions, what we're likely to see with Tesla (and other manufacturers) is FSD approval in limited conditions - such as on limited access highways or operations on surface streets at reduced speed (which is likely what we'll see for FSD delivery/taxi applications initially).
Will Tesla deliver FSD approved to operate everywhere sometime next year - highly unlikely - though I do expect we'll start seeing more value in owning the "FSD" feature in the next 12 months - and with Tesla's fleet learning/AI strategy, new functionality could be added pretty quickly.
With AP2+ vehicles, Tesla really has 3 levels of features:
- Driver assisted operation on limited access highways and limited features on other roads. This is the standard AutoPilot in the latest vehicles or Enhanced AP in AP2 vehicles, and much of this available is becoming available from other manufacturers today. Limited access highways have the simplest environment - without the complications on urban streets (pedestrians, parked vehicles, intersections, traffic lights, stop signs, …).
- Driver assisted operation on almost all roads and under almost all conditions. This is Full Self Driving, before regulatory approval. This is significantly more complicated than the standard AutoPilot because the software has to operate safer than a human in many situations, especially complicated due to the lack of standardization and the unpredictable actions of the objects being tracked. Anyone purchasing FSD is primarily going to see this level of operation, and an expanding number of roads/conditions for most of the time they own their vehicle.
- Fully autonomous driving (no driver interaction) requiring regulatory approval. This is what everyone is shooting for. We will see FSD vehicles in limited conditions soon - such as trucks driving on limited access highways or delivery/taxi vehicles driving in limited areas (moving slowly or stopping when something unexpected happens).
Tesla has made two major design decisions not shared by the other manufacturers. They (Musk) believes they can implement FSD using less expensive 360 degree cameras, front facing radar and proximity sensors vs. using more expensive LIDAR. In theory, since humans don't have the equivalent of LIDAR, it should be possible to implement FSD without LIDAR, though using LIDAR should make object tracking (distance, movement direction, speed) much easier.
The other major difference is Tesla's AI approach with fleet learning. Musk believes they will be "feature complete" with the FSD software soon. This doesn't mean FSD will be ready - it means the major functionality will be implemented in the software, waiting for the AI rules to be developed that will actually drive the vehicle. Because Tesla has access to data from all vehicles produced since late 2016, including the huge number of Model 3's being delivered, Tesla has a gigantic advantage if they can utilize all of this data to develop and fine tune the driving rules. Other manufacturers are relying more on simulation and the use of a limited number of test vehicles; with Tesla's fleet learning driving their AI rules, it's possible that once the FSD software is "feature complete", Tesla may be able to move much more rapidly to safe operation (in driver assist mode) in more conditions than the other manufacturers.
Regulatory approval is an unknown - coupled with managing liability when accidents happen (which cannot be eliminated).
Rather than getting FSD approval for all roads and conditions, what we're likely to see with Tesla (and other manufacturers) is FSD approval in limited conditions - such as on limited access highways or operations on surface streets at reduced speed (which is likely what we'll see for FSD delivery/taxi applications initially).
Will Tesla deliver FSD approved to operate everywhere sometime next year - highly unlikely - though I do expect we'll start seeing more value in owning the "FSD" feature in the next 12 months - and with Tesla's fleet learning/AI strategy, new functionality could be added pretty quickly.
Similar threads
