My first post. Been lurking everyday for the last 5 months. Hi all.
Kinda want to rant a little concerning this recall claim crap and the crazy valuation.
This is the first mass market, vehicle from this company. They have a realistic 10+ year road map for the future. If a problem was evident to them, they would address it.
They have produced 20k or so cars. (figure is unimportant. Only importance is it is lower and earlier then when they hit full stride)
Tesla wants to get this done the correct, and safe way NOW! Not when they are building 100k cars in a few years. Not when their competition has caught up. But now.
We all agree, Tesla included, that positive electric car perception is incredibly important. Much more so then ICE based cars.
If the car was flawed, whatever part it may be. INCLUDING the primary power source, Tesla would take every single action to correct it. Its that simple. A public image hit now may be painful, but is cheaper now, then when 500k cars are out on the road. If Tesla does not think its product is flawed, then I truly don't believe it is.
The major current concern is if the nhtsa might think there is a design flaw. What they might find is unknown to all of us. (This is my concern for the near future. I joined the party late and am paying for that.)
They truly might find nothing, just like TESLA did when they essentially over nite-ed all 3 burnt cars back to Cali to perform their vehicular autopsies. My guess, after they declined to investigate the first 2 fires, is no defect exists. I would buy more tesla now, but am a bit over stretched currently :-( )
While I despise conspiracy theories and all that crap, make no mistake of it. Tesla and its "accelerated" growth and interests are ruffling feathers with many in the petrol industry. Maybe not for current production (next 1-3 decades worth), but after that. It should be a good show. I don't think other automakes are worried just yet. Most develop partnerships and what not anyways. If majority of a vehicles costs are design and development. And now you have they legwork complete so all you have to do is adapt it to your companies current/future platform via licensing agreements. Sounds pretty good to me. (Tesla is already capitalizing on this with a few automakers). Its only going to get more profitable. Get your popcorn ready for the next 20 years.
Also, while I have gotten killed in the last week or so with the drop in stock price, I am not too worried about it. This stock is a lock long term.
This company/business (autos) is much more complex and difficult then say ipods. Why analysts cant grasp this concept is beyond me. Elon explained/reiterated this to all the noobs out their during the earnings report. Minimum time frame for design to in customers hands is for 2-4 years. There is a reason automakers only do major redesigns every four or more years. Its difficult and takes time/money!
People wanting/expecting rapid changes in vehicle/battery design are delusional and clearly out of touch with the auto business. The current drive train tech in Tesla cars will be the norm for the next generation or two. Hell, it may even go past the gen3. Decreasing production/manufacturing costs of said parts should help the model x/gen 3 meet the expectations of what they will cost the end user. Cost of materials as well as production efficiency and vehicle output should drive the prices down. Mass production is vs one off = lower overhead = more profits! Teslas goals with the gen3 are completely attainable with their current road map. Its that simple. The tech/demand will not stop Tesla.
The big question question mark was how would Tesla fair when a significant road block presented itself. I fortunately sold right before the first fire and watched from the side when it dipped. After watching it run past my sell point going back up, I reinvested...at a higher entrance point. I expected and assumed Tesla had met its major obstacle for being a $200 stock and would continue rise. I didn't want to miss the boat. I was wrong. Institutional and algo investors didn't see the positive guidance most of us saw and tanked the stock. This is a comon theme it seems.
I found it funny listening to analysts get all giddy about this "gigafactory" concept. Elon eluded to it by mistake in my opinion. Once the cat was out of the bag, that's all they and us as investors, whom were taking a beating wanted to hear. We wanted good news. Sorry guys. This is years away from happening. If by going off the literately hours earlier announcement of the Panasonic deal/extension. It should be assumed that this will possibly become a reality during or after gen3 production. And how many years away is that...? This gigafactory should only help the long term investor. Not the obvious quarter to quarter traders/analysts. Maybe I am getting this wrong as I am a noob myself, but this seems pretty straight forward to me. Its comical when a company exceeds expectations, yet suffers due to not meeting the "revised and over the top" expectations from an analyst who changed his predictions/valuations multiple times. I wish I could make guesses and have no consequences when I am wrong. Where do I send my resume!?!? But as I am learning, that's the stock market. Take it or leave it.
I bought in knowing the valuation was over the top. I just hoped it would continue to climb as people bought in hoping to grab some stake for the future when production meets demand. Where demand will finally max, was/is positively unknown. But no, the stock market does not like the waiting game. The drop over the last week or so is neither good, nor bad for the Tesla in my opinion. It hurts many of us individual investors, but also allows us to increase are stake. I've seen it before and read it again on these forums recently. Warren Buffets quote...
I think it goes something like, buy when others are fearful, sell when they are greedy...
I didn't get the greed part right, but am working on the fear part now. The time is now.
Also, the media sucks. I heard that there was a time when only "factual news" was reported, not made up/embellished. Must of been before me.
I have referenced a few quite a few things here, and am generally all over the place. I assume most of you can get the gist of what I am saying. Its from you as whole I have learned/researched these things. If I got something wrong, please let me know. I can use the help now...$
I just had to rant.
