Long-Term Fundamentals of Tesla Motors (TSLA)

[sleepyhead]

I asked tftf directly in the short-term thread if tftf was being paid to post, and tftf said no.

Based on what I've read, I believe that tftf is not just anti-Tesla. Tftf is against automobiles in general. If tftf is a troll, I don't think oil companies are the intended beneficiaries of the trolling.

Well, he did admit to shorting TSLA, so he clearly had an agenda to spread fear and distort the truth on TSLA. He said that he exited his short positions in TSLA last week though. Now he said that he will not post here anymore, because he probably minimized his losses (or got back to break even) on shorting TSLA and will be getting out for good.

Like I said, I don't mind hearing the short story. I just get annoyed when people knowingly use false data (or twist the data) to mislead other people. That does not benefit anyone. Just because you found a document on the internet does not mean that the data is accurate. But pretending it is accurate when you know is false is unethical and has no place on this forum.

 

[Convert2013]

I asked tftf directly in the short-term thread if tftf was being paid to post, and tftf said no.

Based on what I've read, I believe that tftf is not just anti-Tesla. Tftf is against automobiles in general. If tftf is a troll, I don't think oil companies are the intended beneficiaries of the trolling.

So what if we have someone who is negative? Is that not allowed in a forum? Ignore if you don't like, comment if you have something to say. Finished. Amazed at the amount of energy spent at spats.
Tesla is going through growing pains right now. Invest at your own risk tolerance as it will likely be volatile in the short term, I think. Strong upside in TSLA in the near to medium term will likely be muted in my opinion. What will be the catalyst? Even Elon said he was uncomfortable with TSLA ATH levels. TSLA got ahead of itself with the passion surrounding its uniqueness and perfection in an otherwise boring industry together with the clean energy theme. I got caught up in that as well with all my eggs in one basket to the point that I became blind to calling an opportune time to take some profits, thinking TSLA could reach $250 sometime early in 2014! I have been through this cycle before in the market but this time I was head over heals with Tesla and became blinded. People who started buying TSLA late ($165 + ish) will likely have to wait for the long term IMO. I cashed out 75% of my TSLA around $140 and diversified into Solar as I wanted to reach a certain financial goal before year end (I am not a young buck anymore so time is more important for me than some others) or come close to it at least. I am a HUGE believer in alternative energy, whether it be cars or the power grid (I have a kid/ nieces/ nephews, and care about this world). I plan to not buy more TSLA until I have a warm fuzzy on positive catalysts. Sleepy has been talking about Solar for a while and I should have looked into it further much earlier.

 

[sleepyhead]

Since I have received a request via PM to prove the $100/kWh expectation within 10 years:

Report: Tesla Expects To Sell 500,000 Cars, Europe Model S Demand Strong

Tesla sees kWh costs to decline to under $100 over the next 10 years, which is down about 75% over today

Note: that 75% quote is from a Goldman Sachs article. They believed that TSLA was sourcing cells at $400/kWh. Just shows how clueless people were/are and that you can't trust any source for information. You need to do your own research on every topic. You would think that Goldman Sachs is a legitimate source, but it isn't. They did a very lazy calculation to get to $400/kWh.

There was also a video (that I personally viewed in May or June and even referenced in a post on TMC in CO's thread) in which Elon Musk himself said that he sees $100/kWh within 10 years, but i don't recollect which video it was. It is impossible to "google it" because without a transcript, google will not find the quote.

Let's also not forget all the Elon quotes from last year that said "we will get below $200/kWh very soon." So lets not pretend that it will be 2020 before we see $200/kWh.

 

[tftf]

Many of us concluded that tftf had an agenda against Tesla and TSLA, but we didn't know why. Now that he admitted to shorting TSLA, it has become clear that he obviously had an agenda.

Ok, I'm coming back for one LAST post because I have had it with these allegations that my short position was somehow hidden or that I have an agenda:

My posts on SeekingAlpha included a disclosure, open for you and everyone else to see for many months, sometimes even inside the post as in August of 2013:

added the remaining half of my short position at 171 USD yesterday.

A CNBC Top For TSLA ? - tftf - Seeking Alpha

Except for my last Instablog entry from this weekend since I (again) no longer have a TSLA position.

I also used the same avatar here (tftf) and linked/mentioned my SA posts: "if anyone is interested in more details, please see...", for example when I referenced the "Porsche exit strategy" blog entry or posts on Behavioral Finance.

My past TSLA positions if you are so interested:

long below $30 since autumn 2012 for first time
sold out in 2013 after TSLA doubled

then some quick long trades until $90 (stopped out, trading on technicals, these are the only ones I lost on)

went short around $125 for first time
covered half the short a few days later (after negative report from GS) at around $110

added half of covered short position liqudity again around $170-175 (see link above) in late August 2013

added more to short (0.3x) around $180 around Q3 earnings (in total 1.3x original short position)
closed out entire short last week at a little above $121.

Because my original long position was much larger I even made more on the TSLA long side than with the shorts.

If people here mocked my posts on SA they could have also read my blog entries etc. where this was disclosed.

Anyway, I plan to come back by 2015 to talk about the groundbreaking of the battery plant when things have hopefully calmed down

Done.

PS: So apparently shorts "distort the truth"? Funny enough, I rarely even talked about the fire issues over the last weeks (please check my postings here). To me this was overblown and likely sensationalized in the mass media, incident samples with EVs are too small so far imho.
As I have written before, if people started paying more attention to battery supply challenges instead of some burning car videos on YT....this is the elephant in the room (especially since this is the LT thread).

PPS: If shorting a stock is un-american according to some I invite you to read the story of Bill Ackman vs MBIA. If only people listened to him before the housing bubble burst a few years later.

 

[Discoducky]

So, like many folks on the forum, I've lost quite a bit of money on my long position. But also, like many, I hold that position as I believe in the products long term, I provide what I hope is valuable feedback to the company to keep the products at the best possible value level for their target demographic, I stay vigilant when approached by just about everyone with their best impressions of Clevon that tease about the bad press (wow, that is tough, especially from generally well informed and bright people) and hope that the innovators, early adopters, EV enthusiasts, technically brilliant and financial wizards all can weather this time and keep the value of this forum high.

These last few weeks have been hard and from an engineering POV I have no worries in how the product is built and rolls down the road as it will keep my family safe and I'm happy TM pays for the damage no matter what (thanks Elon!).

Also, I'm going to spend more time on the Model X, GenIII and R2 threads as my S is humming along nicely with 5.8 thank you very much! Making those products better are the best way I can help ensure the stock hits a new ATH.

 

[Mario Kadastik]

Also, I'm going to spend more time on the Model X, GenIII and R2 threads as my S is humming along nicely with 5.8 thank you very much! Making those products better are the best way I can help ensure the stock hits a new ATH.

You sure that hum doesn't need to be looked at, should be silent Just kidding, couldn't resist...

 

[NigelM]

Mod Note: some posts went here - snippiness

 

[wycolo]

> So, like many folks on the forum, I've lost quite a bit of money on my long position. But also, like many, I hold that position as I believe in the products long term, [Discoducky]

So you've 'lost' quite a bit, ie 'paper' losses, but you are still holding your pre-November positions? Just checking.

'Many folks on the forum' (myself included) should consider taking profits on a more or less regular basis whenever possible. In the long run you will come out ahead since you will miss fewer opportunities.
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[JRP3]

I took some "profits" around $50, huge mistake. Obviously times are different now but if I had kept taking profits from then on up I certainly would have been out of the stock probably well below $100.

 

[wycolo]

Taking profits should be all about your income profile for the tax year, or of course covering a major purchase/gift. You can buy more of the same stock with those profits as soon as the cash settles (3 days); the more profit you pump into the holding the less of 'your money' is in there.
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[Norse]

Maybe old news but I find this car interesting: http://www.fool.com/investing/gener...just-lose-the-battle-for-electric-trucks.aspx

It's good to see that Mr Lutz is fighting along with Tesla. But who wrote this? No info on the car whatsoever, and still it won the battle against Tesla?
And now Tesla can't sell trucks? LOL.

 

[sp4rk]

Perhaps you have no understood Elon's plan?
He relishes competition.
His goal is to encourage and / or force the big guns to build electric.

I saw the Via video last week and if I am not mistaken they convert existing new vehicles to electric ... i.e. not built electric from the get go.

In my book that's an E. For Effort, but how can you make money by taking a gas truck and converting it; ripping out all the gas rubbish and selling it on?

But for those that buy, when Tesla does come 'round and built trucks, and this Via is worn out, theirs will be the brand of choice.

 

[JRP3]

Via makes hybrid vehicles, they are no competition for Tesla, and that article is a ridiculous piece of garbage.

 

[Norse]

Perhaps you have no understood Elon's plan?
He relishes competition.
His goal is to encourage and / or force the big guns to build electric.

And perhaps you do not understand english? Where do I write anything about this is bad for Tesla? I wrote it is good that Mr Lutz are into EV.

I do not understand the point of your posts, but please stop reply to mine.

 

[Russell]

> So, like many folks on the forum, I've lost quite a bit of money on my long position. But also, like many, I hold that position as I believe in the products long term, [Discoducky]

So you've 'lost' quite a bit, ie 'paper' losses, but you are still holding your pre-November positions? Just checking.

'Many folks on the forum' (myself included) should consider taking profits on a more or less regular basis whenever possible. In the long run you will come out ahead since you will miss fewer opportunities.
--

It depends on an individual's strategy.

I bought big when it was at 32.5 and 2 weeks ago sold all at 136. If I sold half when it doubled, to get my original investment back and play with the "house's money", I would have half as much profit.

 

[Norse]

EVs have a market share of 14% in Norway this month. Considering that it is pretty Cold here, that is very impressive and shows that the EV revolution is starting.

 

[hcsharp]

EVs have a market share of 14% in Norway this month. Considering that it is pretty Cold here, that is very impressive and shows that the EV revolution is starting.

My family is of Norwegian decent. OK, that was a few generations ago, but maybe that's why I like EVs so much?:biggrin: Of course it helps to have government incentives, high petrol prices, and above average cultural concern for the environment.

 

[masontrang]

Do you guys think they will be able to maintain sales on Model S if they don't make any significant changes for many years? If Model X and Gen3 come out in the next year to 3 years, the current Model S might seem like an 'obsolete'/old car and less people will want to buy it. Doesn't that leave Tesla to have to put out a new Model S soon after Gen3?

 

[EnergyMax]

Do you guys think they will be able to maintain sales on Model S if they don't make any significant changes for many years? If Model X and Gen3 come out in the next year to 3 years, the current Model S might seem like an 'obsolete'/old car and less people will want to buy it. Doesn't that leave Tesla to have to put out a new Model S soon after Gen3?

Elon mentioned the S would have a life span of ~7 years, and receive a refresh halfway into its life. So we could see the freshened S in 2ish years.

 

[Norse]

Electric Vehicle News: Japan's Sekisui Chemical develop Silicon based 600 km range battery

good to see progress in the battery industry.