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Long-Term Fundamentals of Tesla Motors (TSLA)
- Thread starter Robert.Boston
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- elon is an ass investing TSLA
+1 has anyone actually read the rationale of that piece?
Debt to Equity ratio exceeds industry average. Huh? As far as I know this company's debts comprise convertible bonds and a fantasy figure for GAAP liabilities scheduled to be written off automatically in 2016. As for the industry average how many Tesla's are there in the Tesla industry? I can't see any other cash flow positive electric auto makers demonstrating 100% compound annual growth with profits.
Quick ratio raises concerns over short term cash?? What? (>$750 Million in the bank and cash flow positive quarter on quarter).
Net profit of -8.92% What??? Total GAAP fantasy.
Return on Equity - Fail. If you cannot account for the fact that the bank account is going up (no down) i.e. profits, how can you calculate ROE?
The rest of it wails on about metrics that compare quarter on quarter results with 12 months ago when the company was not even selling the Model S for the most part.
Dear [FONT=Arial, sans-serif]"member of TheStreet Ratings Staff" shape up! This piece reiterates a load of absolute rubbish. [/FONT]
I think you hit the nail on the head with the bolded part. This is where all of the TSLA bashers and analysts fall short on TSLA.
Tesla is a battery company that makes electric vehicles almost exclusively FOR NOW. It will be selling high margin residential and commercial batteries for solar energy storage via SCTY. It will also be selling battery packs for other EV's; Mercedes, Toyota, etc.
Tesla is just scratching the surface with its business model right now. There is a lot more money to be made in battery storage than there is in electric vehicles.
I have actually been looking at this from an industrial consultancy standpoint: How to design a business to compete with Tesla in the Electric Automotive space.
For starters, if your business happens to make ICE vehicles for a living you are in world of trouble from supply chain relationships to dealerships to the law (it is a nonsense to say that Tesla's industry peers are a list of legacy auto makers).
So lets say instead that you want to make a big startup electric automaker. One of the first questions worth asking is what to do with the whole-life economics of batteries and charging. One very tempting answer is to team up with an electrical utility, have that utility purchase the packs and lease them for the first 3 years to car owners. That way the economics of grid storage work out, and so does the economics of driving on pure electricity. This cannot work with batteries that are built into the car and need to be scrapped along with the rest of the vehicle at end of life. Tesla's modular hot-swappable battery packs are the key.
I would disagree that Tesla has the largest potential as a fixed-storage battery producer - the barrier to entry to making big battery packs is too low. Tesla's future giga factory may well be cost competitive and that piece of business may well be huge, probably so, but Tesla's vehicles will without doubt in my mind continue to compound in volume by 100% annually for a very long time with a very high barrier to the entry of credible competition indeed, enabling it to maintain Apple-like margins on huge volumes and ultimately huge market share.
I do believe that Tesla has got the long term economics of vehicle batteries under control. The exit strategy for a vehicle pack's residual value in SCTY is all-powerful. That opens up the entire Tesla fleet to regular upgrading at huge profit to both Tesla and SCTY. This path slashes the upgrade cost to the vehicle consumer and slashes the cost of grid storage to the home owner. It is the combined use of a battery in both vehicle and distributed grid storage (24/7 solar) that is the killer proposition where the same cost item serves two entirely separate markets and value propositions sequentially (three when you include eventual recycling).
The whole life environmental payback is also astonishing.
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Mario Kadastik
Active Member
That is pretty much what I have been telling people here every time they bring up the battery pack cost and lifetime and recycling and eco footprint. That Tesla is an energy company that produces the best cars and has a way with the battery packs for multiple uses. This will make it a huge profit area for TSLA and right now essentially all analysts are only looking blindly at the car manufacturing. The drivetrain business for others is considered marginal, the SC licensing for others is not accounted, the battery pack sales to SCTY & Co is not accounted for, the recycling of packs as a means to increase GM on re-use is not accounted. Sooner or later the stock will take all of this into account. That's why I'm long TSLA, but as my financial capacities are small I leverage on LEAPs.
Elon posts such an incredible video but less than 40K views. C'mon guys - lets make this a viral hit!! Forward it to every man, woman and dog you know.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TelUR5Bg9zE
Spread it on!!!
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TelUR5Bg9zE
Spread it on!!!
anticitizen13.7
Not posting at TMC after 9/17/2018
Beautifully made video. Good to see that the Model S performs well in snowy country!
InTheShadows
Active Member
It only has 40k views because it's too long. Most viral videos are less than 60 seconds. 90 seconds tops. It also doesn't have that "ooh I want to watch it again" feeling.
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The Tesla video is 4 minutes long. Of the top 30 most-viewed videos on YouTube, all but one are music videos and roughly 3-5 minutes long.
The most viewed videos on Youtube in the World of all time - Videotrine.com
Maybe Tesla needs some Korean dancers in Raybans.
I've watched it four times. But maybe I'm biased.
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In case you haven't seen this, a customer was able to upgrade his battery through tesla:
Life With Tesla Model S: Battery Upgrade From 60 kWh To 85 kWh
This seems relevant to the above discussion. Wonder what tesla will do with the old 60 kWh battery pack?
Life With Tesla Model S: Battery Upgrade From 60 kWh To 85 kWh
This seems relevant to the above discussion. Wonder what tesla will do with the old 60 kWh battery pack?
JRP3
Hyperactive Member
Probably keep it as a replacement for a faulty or damaged pack, or maybe it will go into a supercharger for load leveling. Certainly the upgrade cost doesn't make it seem worthwhile, he would have done better to do a private sale of his car and then buy an 85, but I guess he wasn't willing to wait, or buy a loaner, or another used 85 from a private seller.
JRP3
Hyperactive Member
Actually it's both hardware and software. It's the physical limitations of the smaller battery pack which prevent it from being able to supply the same amount of power as the larger pack, and Tesla sets up software limits to prevent the motor and inverter from trying to pull excess power from the pack which would damage it, or at least age it prematurely.
Take a look to the EV drag racing scene. They go a lot faster than 0-60 in 4 sec. And have much less than 60kWh on board. The pack is not entirely the limiting factor. It is the motor winding design, electronic speed control and throttle curve programming and more. You can program the 85 to always do 8 second 0-60. And you can also program it for sub 4.0 second. But only if the motor has enough power in its design.
you are right that battery aging is the first thing that happens - based on ion plating. Future battery designs will have to look into ways to get rid of the chemical byproducts so that smaller packs can be used to their full potential.
Lithium Battery Research: Plating
Reminds me of lactic acid build up in atheletes. If we didn't generate lactic acid, people could run 3 minute miles and ride bicycles to work everyday 40 miles away. Now, only real cyclists can do such miles after extensive training.
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JRP3
Hyperactive Member
EV drag racers are using high C rate chemistry, and they don't really care if it lasts 100K miles, or even 100 miles. Completely different animal. I stand by my previous post, the physical limitations of the smaller pack limit the amount of power it can safely produce.
or, perhaps, as part of a multi-stage battery. Ultracaps could quickly charge, absorbing power from regen, then slowly discharge into the main battery. Likewise, you could "spin up" the ultracaps to get extra juice for acceleration.
NHTSA REAFFIRMS MODEL S 5-STAR SAFETY RATING IN ALL CATEGORIES FOR MODEL YEAR 2014
NHTSA Reaffirms Model S 5-Star Safety Rating In All Categories For Model Year 2014 | Press Releases | Tesla Motors
NHTSA Reaffirms Model S 5-Star Safety Rating In All Categories For Model Year 2014 | Press Releases | Tesla Motors
JRP3
Hyperactive Member
Given that, is there any way possible for NHTSA to then claim a safety defect? "Yes we just gave it a 5 star rating, again, but...."
Agree, if there would be a possibility for a full blown recall, NHTSA would wait with the affirmation rather than issue it now.
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