Luxury car makers are so screwed

[dennis]

Our Model S averages about 335watts/mile. Charging efficiency is about 85%. We pay 0.19 cents per kWH for electricity. Thats 7.5 cents per mile.

You might benefit by changing to PSE&G's RLM rate which is a Time-of-Use structure. It lowers the off-peak cost to $.10/kwh and would cut your charging cost almost in half. From this page comparing the rates:

PSE&G also offers a “Time-Of-Use” or “TOU” rate known as the Residential Load Management, or “RLM” rate, which may be advantageous for EV owners to consider... the average PSE&G customer’s bill without an electric vehicle tends to be about the same on either the RS or RLM rate. In fact, larger than average PSE&G residential customers do tend to save on the RLM rate even without an electric vehicle.

 

[Spidy]

You write with great confidence about details that have not been released to anyone. I doubt that even upper management at Tesla is certain about the pricing structures or what exactly would be standard. Perhaps you should contact them and inform them as to how they are going to execute.

I don't expect more things to be standard on it than on a Model S. So that pretty much only leaves us with Supercharger access, which was not default on the cheapest Model S in the past and we also have the letter from Tesla regarding filled up spots at superchargers.

 

[wdolson]

People who think they will want a $35000 Model 3 will be really disappointed when the configurator is released. Nobody will want that base model. Add some basic stuff like tech package, supercharger access and some small design changes and you are easily above $40k. In addition I expect less features to be default so we might already be at $45k. Battery upgrades and AWD as well as some less important upgrades will probably push the car to $70-80k.

Also don't expect everyone to get a $7500 tax credit it won't be left for long. And maintenance on a Model S in $600. Ask your friends what they pay for an oil change, even if the Model 3 would cost half as much that's probably still more expensive.

In addition there are already competing cars in that class with the eGolf, B-Class and i3. We will probably see the 2nd generation of those cars around the same time, maybe a bit later, but I wouldn't be surprised if Tesla is a bit late, too.

I doubt the average price for the Model 3 will be $70K, but it will be closer to $50K. Additionally what information is known about the Model 3 says that it will be about the same size as a BMW 3 Series, which is larger than the eGolf and i3. Those cars are sub-compacts and the 3 Series is called a luxury compact sedan. Cars of similar size are the Subaru Impreza, Ford Focus, Honda Civic, Toyota Corolla, and Chevrolet Cruze. I don't believe there are any pure electric vehicles in that size range. It's also one of the more popular car sizes on the market. If Tesla uses space as efficiently on the Model 3 as they did on the Model S, the interior and cargo space is going to compete with mid-sized sedans, which is the biggest market niche for non-truck vehicles in the US.

Tesla is banking on the Gigifactory lowing the cost of batteries by about 30%. The batteries are the biggest cost factor in the Model S. If it were an ICE car, the Model S would sell for about the same price as a Toyota Avalon or Ford Taurus. When the Gigafactory gets going the Model S and X will probably see a price reduction of $10-$15K. Elon Musk has said that the Model 3 can't be mass produced without the Gigafactory, both from a volume as well as a price perspective.

 

[davidc18]

Elon has also made various and repeated comments on timelines and items that have never materialized. The latest being autopilot features and X release date. I would love for there to be a model 3 someday at the 35k price point. We need a second car, but I have zero belief that it will arrive as currently quoted by Elon. Right now, I hope they simply survive the X rollout which seems to be in serious trouble.

Elon has stated on the record, repeatedly, that the Model 3 base price at launch will be $35K WITHOUT ANY INCENTIVES.
Obviously that will be RWD with no options. And it is likely that, based on Tesla's history to date, initial production will be heavily optioned cars. But the base price will be $35K. Which means demand will be enormous no matter what gasoline prices are at the time. Most people who buy EVs don't buy them primarily because of the cost of gas. However, gas prices do heavily influence hybrid vehicle sales.

 

[Spidy]

I doubt the average price for the Model 3 will be $70K, but it will be closer to $50K.

I menat $70k for the version with all options. I agree $50k is closer to the average price, but that's my point. $35k is really just a base model price and that's usually never what people buy or want.

 

[Panoz]

My on-order Model S isn't as reliable as an Audi? I'm cancelling the order right now...

 

[perdru]

My on-order Model S isn't as reliable as an Audi? I'm cancelling the order right now...

Enjoy your Tesla, but if you should be unlucky enough to visit the Service Center for the nth time, bear in mind that you could have avoided these trips by purchasing a car from a company with more experience of making luxury cars :wink:.....

Good luck with your Model S !

 

[jerry33]

Enjoy your Tesla, but if you should be unlucky enough to visit the Service Center for the nth time, bear in mind that you could have avoided these trips by purchasing a car from a company with more experience of making luxury cars :wink:.....

Good luck with your Model S !

I have had my Model S for 2.5 years and 57K miles. It's been far more reliable than the last German car I had. On a forum like this, most posts are about problems. Few post six o'clock and all's well.

 

[Vizir]

People who think they will want a $35000 Model 3 will be really disappointed when the configurator is released. Nobody will want that base model. Add some basic stuff like tech package, supercharger access and some small design changes and you are easily above $40k. In addition I expect less features to be default so we might already be at $45k. Battery upgrades and AWD as well as some less important upgrades will probably push the car to $70-80k.

Also don't expect everyone to get a $7500 tax credit it won't be left for long. And maintenance on a Model S in $600. Ask your friends what they pay for an oil change, even if the Model 3 would cost half as much that's probably still more expensive.

In addition there are already competing cars in that class with the eGolf, B-Class and i3. We will probably see the 2nd generation of those cars around the same time, maybe a bit later, but I wouldn't be surprised if Tesla is a bit late, too.

That case could be made for any car. The base model always comes without all the flair and the automakers entice you into wanting the cool features for extra.

 

[artsci]

Mine is. The Model S is a great car, but my previous car (Audi A4) was far more reliable. I've been back over 10 times now for fixing issues and overall the German carmakers have a much better fit and finish, better chairs, better warranty (atleast in Europe), etc.

If Audi, BMW or Mercedes will make an eletric car with decent range (350km+) and a reliable Supercharger netwerk I'll be back on the "old nest".

Your experience with German cars has not been mine, my brother's, or several of my good friends. One thinks his wife's Mercedes is the biggest piece of junk he's ever seen, so bad that they no longer drive it. And he owns and runs an auto mechanic shop.

 

[green1]

Elon has also made various and repeated comments on timelines and items that have never materialized. The latest being autopilot features and X release date. I would love for there to be a model 3 someday at the 35k price point. We need a second car, but I have zero belief that it will arrive as currently quoted by Elon. Right now, I hope they simply survive the X rollout which seems to be in serious trouble.

If you listen carefully to the things Elon touts, there's always one real signature thing for each vehicle, and everything else can fail as long as that thing happens. For Model X it was the falcon wing doors, Elon made a big stink about them, and there was no way that vehicle would be released without them, even if it delayed the launch or drove up the cost.

For the model 3 the signature thing is the price, they'll hit $35,000 for the base model, that part is pretty much guaranteed. Anything else is still up in the air, and I fully expect them to miss their schedule by a substantial margin, but there is no way they'll let that price slide.

 

[roblab]

I have had my Model S for 2.5 years and 57K miles. It's been far more reliable than the last German car I had. On a forum like this, most posts are about problems. Few post six o'clock and all's well.

82,000 miles and all's well. No charge ever for things needing correcting (early door handle issues, squeak in dash and door, bent frunk latch) but those were years ago. Always treated like family, have borrowed loaners twice, usually don't need one. Haven't been to the Service Center in months and months, car rides and drives beautifully.

I have talked recently (National Drive Electric Day Ride and Drive meetings last week) to many "luxury car owners": BMW, Audi, Porsche, MB. When we get to the service and maintenance, the repair, it is a real sore spot. These are random people off the street, not grouchers posting on a forum. From my limited point of view, Tesla is doing it right.

 

[mspohr]

Enjoy your Tesla, but if you should be unlucky enough to visit the Service Center for the nth time, bear in mind that you could have avoided these trips by purchasing a car from a company with more experience of making luxury cars :wink:.....

Good luck with your Model S !

Your anecdotal impression of Audi is much different than my experience. Over the past 30 years I have owned 6 Audis. I didn't find them particularly well made but we had a very good local mechanic who specialized in Audis and knew all of their quirks. I had one which I forced the company to buy back under the Lemon Law because it was so unreliable. We kept buying them because they were one of the few 4WD sedans/wagons on the market. The only alternative was Subaru but they were notoriously bad in the early years.
My Model S (85D) is, now, vastly superior in every way to the Audis and has been much more reliable (no problems in 6 months and 20,000 miles). I also really appreciate not having to take it for an oil/filter/etc. every 3 months (I always found this a colossal waste of time).

 

[perdru]

Your anecdotal impression of Audi is much different than my experience. Over the past 30 years I have owned 6 Audis. I didn't find them particularly well made but we had a very good local mechanic who specialized in Audis and knew all of their quirks. I had one which I forced the company to buy back under the Lemon Law because it was so unreliable. We kept buying them because they were one of the few 4WD sedans/wagons on the market. The only alternative was Subaru but they were notoriously bad in the early years.
My Model S (85D) is, now, vastly superior in every way to the Audis and has been much more reliable (no problems in 6 months and 20,000 miles). I also really appreciate not having to take it for an oil/filter/etc. every 3 months (I always found this a colossal waste of time).

I find it a bit unfair to compare 30 year cars to new ones.
A new car is not expected to have problems - maybe the climate in Norway, which is very much different from California, has a bad impact on American cars.
Since Teslas seem to be having more quality-related issues overseas than in the US - waiting times at the SC´s over here are considerable - maybe European luxury cars´ quality decrease likewise when crossing the Atlantic.

 

[mspohr]

I find it a bit unfair to compare 30 year cars to new ones.
A new car is not expected to have problems - maybe the climate in Norway, which is very much different from California, has a bad impact on American cars.
Since Teslas seem to be having more quality-related issues overseas than in the US - waiting times at the SC´s over here are considerable - maybe European luxury cars´ quality decrease likewise when crossing the Atlantic.

Most recent Audi was 2010 so not quite 30 years old. This particular Audi (A6) was quite mundane in appearance and performance. Drab interior. Ate up a lot of tires. Above average visits for repair/maintenance. We had this car when we lived in Switzerland so it should have been good, being close to home. Audis, in my experience, are just not very good cars.

 

[jerry33]

I find it a bit unfair to compare 30 year cars to new ones.
A new car is not expected to have problems - maybe the climate in Norway, which is very much different from California, has a bad impact on American cars.
Since Teslas seem to be having more quality-related issues overseas than in the US - waiting times at the SC´s over here are considerable - maybe European luxury cars´ quality decrease likewise when crossing the Atlantic.

In general, cars are designed for the local conditions because that's where the engineer usually live. Some companies have engineers in other countries but my guess is that they don't have nearly as much input as the ones near global HQ. In North America, Mercedes, VW, and BMW do not have a particularly good reliability reputations. My one foray into German cars ended up costing 22 cents per mile for maintenance alone and was just disappointing. When the trim melts off, it's not a good sign.

 

[Krugerrand]

I find it a bit unfair to compare 30 year cars to new ones.

I'd find it unfair too if that's actually what he did, but he didn't. He said, and I quote: "Over the past 30 years I have owned 6 Audis." So he has 30 years of history owning several Audis and has found them all to be not particularly well made and quirk.

 

[svp6]

I also really appreciate not having to take it for an oil/filter/etc. every 3 months (I always found this a colossal waste of time).

What Audi's did you have? The A4 I had 10 years ago required once a year or every 15,000 miles oil change. Synthetic oil goes a long way. It was the same for all other 4 German cars I owned over last 15 years (2000 Passat, 2006 SLK280, 2009 335xi, 2012 650xi). The BMWs had free maintenance first 4 years (the Audi had it too at the time I leased it).

I had no major problems with my P85D for 8,000 miles, and I really like the car. But to say the interior is on par with the luxury level found in comparable German cars is an overstatement. Try the S-class (same price as my model S), BMW 6 series, Audi 6/7/8. If any of these had a comparable sedan I would not hesitate to cross-shop.

 

[mspohr]

What Audi's did you have? The A4 I had 10 years ago required once a year or every 15,000 miles oil change. Synthetic oil goes a long way. It was the same for all other 4 German cars I owned over last 15 years (2000 Passat, 2006 SLK280, 2009 335xi, 2012 650xi). The BMWs had free maintenance first 4 years (the Audi had it too at the time I leased it).

I had no major problems with my P85D for 8,000 miles, and I really like the car. But to say the interior is on par with the luxury level found in comparable German cars is an overstatement. Try the S-class (same price as my model S), BMW 6 series, Audi 6/7/8. If any of these had a comparable sedan I would not hesitate to cross-shop.

Auto makers have been recommending longer intervals for oil changes since they know this is a major pain point for consumers. Most mechanics, however, still recommend 3month intervals for the health of the engine. Synthetic oils are more durable but still accumulate acids and combustion products so should be changed. I've had "free" oil changes from my Audis and other cars but it still eats up half a day each time and I value my free time. Also, at the "free" oil change they always seem to find something that needs fixing so... not free (I think they plan it that way).
With the Model S, I just drive it and don't worry about routine maintenance. I just keeps running.

 

[perdru]

Most recent Audi was 2010 so not quite 30 years old. This particular Audi (A6) was quite mundane in appearance and performance. Drab interior. Ate up a lot of tires. Above average visits for repair/maintenance. We had this car when we lived in Switzerland so it should have been good, being close to home. Audis, in my experience, are just not very good cars.

Sorry.
Just tired of Teslaowners riediculing other car makers ( when sitting in a glass house regarding car quality ).
My experience with Audi is the opposite of yours ; something you probably can live well with.
I wish you would try out more drab Audi interiors ; please go to a Audi dealer and check out an RS7 in the same
price range as your Tesla and be surprised.