Mars and Off Planet Colonization - General Possibilities Discussion

[ecarfan]

It will be interesting to hear the reactions of critical thinkers such as Neil deGrasse Tyson

Tyson reacted to Musk's ITS plan last year shortly after Musk presented it. You don't need to wait for Tyson's comments. Search the web. For example, see Would Neil deGrasse Tyson ever take SpaceX to Mars? Only if Elon Musk’s mom does it first.

Tyson leans towards the skeptical side. He doesn't believe that SpaceX can make the ITS Mars missions a reality without significant government support. I disagree. I think Elon wants to have the independence to design and build and launch the ITS without too many government restrictions or conditions. Yesterday Elon tweeted that he will soon be revealing his plan for how to fund the ITS. I do not expect the US government to play a major role.

 

[Nikxice]

Tyson reacted to Musk's ITS plan last year shortly after Musk presented it. You don't need to wait for Tyson's comments. Search the web. For example, see Would Neil deGrasse Tyson ever take SpaceX to Mars? Only if Elon Musk’s mom does it first.

Tyson leans towards the skeptical side. He doesn't believe that SpaceX can make the ITS Mars missions a reality without significant government support. I disagree. I think Elon wants to have the independence to design and build and launch the ITS without too many government restrictions or conditions. Yesterday Elon tweeted that he will soon be revealing his plan for how to fund the ITS. I do not expect the US government to play a major role.

Yes, familiar with NDT view that it takes the help of big government to get a Mars type project rolling. Great guy, but I can't wait to see him proven wrong! After Elon's Mars financial details emerge, would love to watch or listen to a future StarTalk episode with Tyson and perhaps Buzz Aldrin discussing the feasibility of the plan.

 

[ecarfan]

In the Space Show radio program broadcast on 7/22/2017 at http://www.thespaceshow.com/file/7663/download?token=0hnS0L2y Gywnne Shotwell said that SpaceX is not seeking investment or funding for the ITS. She wasn't very specific and the interviewer didn't press her on the details, but the impression given was that ITS development was proceeding without seeking external funding. She did not say SpaceX would "never" seek funding, obviously.

 

[Grendal]

Tim Dodd, the Everyday Astronaut, explaining why there will be no Red Dragon or powered landings for Dragon 2:

 

[Ulmo]

Tim Dodd, the Everyday Astronaut, explaining why there will be no Red Dragon or powered landings for Dragon 2:

Very awesome! Great watch. This is a fantastic video explanation of the brief thing we already knew about the same topic, but very well done. I really like how he did research and pulled together the pieces and made it a good video document, that brings something to the table for everyone watching it.

 

[ecarfan]

Article about how the Boca Chica facility will apparently be used exclusively for ITS missions: SpaceX's Texas-based Mars launch facilities to be completed as soon as 2019

 

[KarenRei]

Article about how the Boca Chica facility will apparently be used exclusively for ITS missions: SpaceX's Texas-based Mars launch facilities to be completed as soon as 2019

That's.... surprising. I can't believe they'll have enough Mars-related traffic any time soon to justify an entire facility.

Ed: actually, the article does not say exclusively.

 

[Grendal]

Boca Chica, being the first privately owned orbital launch facility, will be designed with the ability to launch all types of SpaceX vehicles. That includes Falcon 9, Falcon Heavy, BFR/BFS, and ITS. While there will be crew capability at that facility, I don't expect anything to do with Commercial Crew to happen there. Commercial Crew is a NASA program so anything associated with it would occur in NASA territory on LC 39A. The Boca Chica facility is currently low on the SpaceX priority list since they will soon have 3 launch facilities up and running. SpaceX launch cadence is already high at a launch every two weeks or so. The third launch facility should allow (though it would be pushing it) for a once a week launch cadence. Four launch facilities would allow for something even faster than that, which is beyond SpaceX's current ability to manufacture the rockets to allow for such a launch cadence.

As far as I am aware, the current build cadence is a new basic Falcon 9 rocket every two weeks. There are lots of other things interfering with that build cadence at the moment such as Block 4 and Block 5 upgrades to the design, refurbishing of flight proven cores for upcoming launches, and a heavy focus on Commercial Crew.

One of the major hurdles to launch cadence was improved this year. SpaceX used to have to spend a lot of time and effort to coordinate a launch with the Air Force. An automated system now makes that process much more simple.

 

[AudubonB]

Am I correct in assuming Boca Chica is not appropriate for circumpolar trajectories? Noting but land masses to north and south, so....

...as much as I yearn for Mars exploration, in the short run I am much more greedily longing for high speed internet in Paxson - something only SpaceX's 4,200 satellites feasibly can deliver.

 

[Mike1080i]

Am I correct in assuming Boca Chica is not appropriate for circumpolar trajectories? Noting but land masses to north and south, so....

You are correct, no polar capability from Boca Chica. Can't launch to the ISS from there either.

 

[ecarfan]

That's.... surprising. I can't believe they'll have enough Mars-related traffic any time soon to justify an entire facility.
Ed: actually, the article does not say exclusively.

Yes, thanks for correcting me, I should not have used the word "exclusively". Quote from the article:

"....the news that Boca Chica would be developed from the start of construction as a launch facility for SpaceX’s Mars colonization vehicle, the Interplanetary Transport System (ITS)."

So interpret that how you will.

 

[jkn]

You are correct, no polar capability from Boca Chica. Can't launch to the ISS from there either.

I don't see why they could not launch to the ISS from Boca Chica.

 

[RDoc]

I don't see why they could not launch to the ISS from Boca Chica.

I believe the issue is that the trajectory to get to the ISS is to the north east which would go over the continental US. They'd have to do some kind of dog leg launch to avoid overflying populated areas, possible, but needs lots of energy.

 

[ggr]

I believe the issue is that the trajectory to get to the ISS is to the north east which would go over the continental US. They'd have to do some kind of dog leg launch to avoid overflying populated areas, possible, but needs lots of energy.

No, not quite. I found a really good web site while trying to figure out how to explain this. The ISS is in an orbit with inclination 51.6 degrees. So every now and then it passes over Cape Canaveral, at 28 degrees North. But it could be heading northeast at the time, or it could be heading southeast. If you launch from Cape Canaveral, and all you care about is getting the most possible payload (all else being equal) into orbit, you launch due east to take advantage of the earth's rotation, and you end up with an orbit inclined at 28 degrees. If you want to dock with the ISS, you have to spend extra energy to match it's inclination, and that amount depends on the amount of angle change. View it on a sphere and it becomes easy to see that catching it while going northeast is much easier than catching it when it's going southeast, because the Cape is in the northern hemisphere, at least if you're in a hurry. But you could launch to the southeast, to match orbits. You don't get quite as much advantage from the earth's rotation. (I think this is right, but ... maybe not. It's complicated.) This might take you over a few of the Caribbean islands though.

The bottom line is that for the cost of a bit of time and a small amount of extra energy, they could launch from Boca Chica to the southeast. My guesstimate is that the track would take it over Cuba, and maybe even clip South America, but by that time it's already in orbit. Since Boca Chica is at 26 degrees North, it actually gets a very slight assist from being closer to the equator.

 

[Mike1080i]

I don't see why they could not launch to the ISS from Boca Chica.

@RDoc and @ggr Pretty much covered it, overflight of populated areas. To the Northeast is the rest of the United States and to the Southeast is Mexico's Yucatán Peninsula and Cuba between there and Florida. It doesn't leave a lot of options when it comes to launch azimuth.

This page hasn't been updated with Boca Chica information, but it covers most other launch sites and their launch azimuth restrictions and available inclinations.

Maybe one day if BFR's reliability gets to that of commercial airliners, overflight could be reconsidered and would almost have to be to allow Earth to Earth flights.

 

[jkn]

@RDoc and @ggr Pretty much covered it, overflight of populated areas. To the Northeast is the rest of the United States and to the Southeast is Mexico's Yucatán Peninsula and Cuba between there and Florida. It doesn't leave a lot of options when it comes to launch azimuth.

This page hasn't been updated with Boca Chica information, but it covers most other launch sites and their launch azimuth restrictions and available inclinations.

Maybe one day if BFR's reliability gets to that of commercial airliners, overflight could be reconsidered and would almost have to be to allow Earth to Earth flights.

Yucatán is ~900 km away. I thought it is far enough.

SpaceX Falcon 9 Block 4 - Iridium Next 21-30 - SLC-4E
shows about 700 km danger zone. So Yucatán is rather close.

But what is too close? If 2. stage engine fails a moment before reaching orbit it could fall to other side of Earth. Perhaps it and most loads will burn to nothing in this case.

Perhaps SpaceX should launch from Guam.

It will take very many launches to prove BFR as reliable as commercial airliners.

 

[Mike1080i]

Yucatán is ~900 km away. I thought it is far enough.

SpaceX Falcon 9 Block 4 - Iridium Next 21-30 - SLC-4E
shows about 700 km danger zone. So Yucatán is rather close.

But what is too close? If 2. stage engine fails a moment before reaching orbit it could fall to other side of Earth. Perhaps it and most loads will burn to nothing in this case.

Perhaps SpaceX should launch from Guam.

How close is a good question. In no way am I an expert (I work in TV not aerospace, just a lifelong spaceflight fan), but it is interesting to use the Cape's Eastern Range as an example. If you draw a line (Google Earth is handy for this) at the 35 degree limit it avoids the Outer Banks of North Carolina at about 550mi/900km downrange and stays off shore all the way up to Nova Scotia, Canada over 1300mi/2100km downrange.

It will take very many launches to prove BFR as reliable as commercial airliners.

That's very true.

 

[ecarfan]

And here I thought this thread was about Mars...

 

[Mike1080i]

And here I thought this thread was about Mars...

I guess the journey to Mars starts with picking good launch sites!

 

[jkn]

I didn't found link to this from this forum. Sorry if my search was inadequate

Panel - The SpaceX Plan for Mars - 20th Annual International Mars Society Convention
The Mars Society, Published on Sep 19, 2017


A panel to discus about SpaceX. They did get Elon to speak, but its interesting anyway.

Edit: 36:44 "Elon Musk is a out of science fiction. You do realize that. Okay, Okay.
Heinlein wrote him up long ago."

I trust somebody has read Heinlein's book