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Model 3 deprication estimate 1-2 year

voip-ninja

Give me some sugar baby
Mar 15, 2012
4,509
5,588
Colorado
I think Autolist is always overly optimistic with their estimates. If you go back and look at their old Model S projections, they were very optimistic based on today's actual market. I don't think they are accurately accounting for how much Tesla changes their cars over a 2 year span.

For example, in 2 years we will most likely have Autopilot 3 hardware going out on all new cars creating a potential step function in the depreciation curve.

I definitely don't think FSD will be possible with today's hardware. If in 18 months Tesla starts shipping their cars with even newer hardware that gets them closer to FSD it will definitely impact resale value of today's versions.

Even regular autopilot could see major improvements that could tempt some to get the newer version vs. saving money on an older one.
 
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S4WRXTTCS

Well-Known Member
May 3, 2015
6,852
8,423
Snohomish, WA
I definitely don't think FSD will be possible with today's hardware. If in 18 months Tesla starts shipping their cars with even newer hardware that gets them closer to FSD it will definitely impact resale value of today's versions.

Even regular autopilot could see major improvements that could tempt some to get the newer version vs. saving money on an older one.

I don't think it will be possible either, and I don't think it's simply a matter of swapping the AP computer.

Of course if Tesla changes hardware there is going to be one heck of a backlash against them considering they claim all cars shipping have the necessary hardware.

"All Tesla vehicles produced in our factory, including Model 3, have the hardware needed for full self-driving capability at a safety level substantially greater than that of a human driver."

This doesn't impact my decision as I'm pretty convinced that we're multiple generations away from FSD. All that I really care about is each iteration I get differs significantly from the last one.
 

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