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model 3 dual motor long range/range

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In the summer on my 15 mile commute to work where it's mostly 40-55 mph, I can get <200 wh/mi, I've hit 180ish sometimes, but usually it's in the 190's, no A/C usually, windows up, etc, now that it's winter, I get about 300/320 wh/mi, sometimes higher when it's really cold, HVAC on 68 degrees, seat heat on 2 bacons, driving pretty much the same way.

Thank you for that, I'll now be thinking of bacon whenever I use my seat heater!! If I find myself stopping at Denny's on my way to work, I'm blaming you ;)
 
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It's probably do to speeds. higher speeds have lower efficiency. Your city driving is probably a lot lower speeds avg.
Slower speeds and more chances for regenerative braking. My uncle owns a Prius that he mostly drives in city mode and he almost never hears the gas engine kick in while in the city.

Hybrids and electrics work kind of in reverse to ICE in that stop and go traffic actually is somewhat more efficient due to the combination of slower speeds and ability to do regenerative braking.
 
Slower speeds and more chances for regenerative braking. My uncle owns a Prius that he mostly drives in city mode and he almost never hears the gas engine kick in while in the city.

Hybrids and electrics work kind of in reverse to ICE in that stop and go traffic actually is somewhat more efficient due to the combination of slower speeds and ability to do regenerative braking.

Precisely!! (in Doc Brown voice)

While all cars get better efficiency at city speeds (25-45MPH) vs hwy speeds, ICE cars "waste" that advantage when they slow down or stop (which is why ICE MPG is at its worst in stop and go traffic). Hybrids and EVs use regenerative braking to recapture losses from slowing down for lights/traffic. Further, since there's no running engine while you're stopped, slowing, or coasting, you maintain your efficiency there too. Hence the higher MPG in the city.
 
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Is there a direct connection to your calculated average Wh/mi and displayed range at a percentage (or full capacity)? I've seen a steady decrease in my 100% charge range (extrapolated from my typical 80% charge level) over time from an initial 311 miles to now 288 miles (about an 8% reduction) at 8,700 miles and 7.5 months of age. My typical drive comes in at about 300 Wh/mi. I asked Tesla service about this, and they said:

"Our engineering team performed a log review based on the given timestamps and found that there were no issues present at this time. The technician also performed the HV system global autodiag and there are no issues preset at this time. Technician performed the range warranty autodiag and the results are as follows. The HV battery capacity retention is within acceptable range, no replacement needed. HV battery capacity retention is 94.3 %. This Autodiag examines the CAC (calculated amp capacity) of a similar aging fleet vehicles and provides the difference between the customer and the fleet average. The battery inside VIN 5YJ3E1EB8KF493xxx has a CAC of 201 Ah. This is 4.1 % lower than the average of similar vehicles, which is 209.6 Ah. The CAC of this battery does NOT reside in the concerning bounds."

I'm wondering what a histogram of CAC might look like and how many SD's my car might be out from the mean. Thoughts on all of the above would be appreciated.