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Model 3 long range

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Realistically, what kind of range should I expect from a M3LR on this kind of weather in southern Ontario, sporty driven (nothing unsafe or too crazy, just a bit of acceleration from stop light, etc)? From 575 (theoretical) down to what, 400? 300?
 
Here are my stats. Got the car in December in Vancouver.

Screen Shot 2022-03-03 at 1.42.39 PM.png
 
Biggest range loss will be if you do many short trips vs one or many long trips. If you only drive 5 km to work/store each day leaving enough time for the car to get cold between trips and warm the car up each time you could easily get your range down to under 150km on a full charge, for a longer commute/trip it won't be that bad
 
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I'm in Quebec City so I'm sure it's as cold as south Ontario... my efficiency at various temperatures looks similar to what was posted by Ataman. I get 80-85% in the summer since I drive over the speed limits and I get 50-55% efficiency in the worst cases in winter. I do not have a heat pump as I have a 2020 Model 3 LR AWD.
 
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We avg 135 wh/km in summer and 145 Wh/km at around 0 deg C. This assumes that vehicle was preheated while plugged in, and parked outside. Model 3 SR+

At -10C without preheating, on a 20km journey we were using 160-175 Wh/km.

Without preheating and below 5C there is little to no regen, so efficiency will be poor in stop and go traffic.