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Okay, so I'm only sixteen days in "the waiting room," so clearly am still a rookie at all this.
That said, observing the estimated delivery dates of the folks here bounce around like popcorn makes me shake my head. Quixotic is the word that comes to mind.
We can assume that Tesla has a pretty refined picture of the daily production coming out of Fremont. They know what models, what colors, and what trims they are going to build today. And tomorrow. And Wednesday of next week. And Thursday of the week after.
Their logistics department surely knows, to within a few hours, how long it will take to get however many cars to whichever region.
They know the churn rate - the percentage of VINs that are put on hold or are rejected, and thus need x number of additional hours/days to match to another buyer.
They know precisely what their order queue looks like, where each of those orders is to be delivered, and the order date - the priority via which to assign VINs.
Adding all these together into our EDD soup shouldn't be hard. It's what computers do.
And yet we constantly see EDD windows shrink, then get larger again; get pushed out, then get pulled in again.
Supply chain issues come to mind as, perhaps, one reason for Tesla's mysterious inability to accurately predict delivery. But Tesla's delivery numbers in 2021 strongly suggest that whatever difficulties those supply chains impose... happen upstream of the factory floor. Tesla's parts people and software teams have clearly managed to make supply chain problems a manageable issue.
What you'd expect is that when you submit your order you'd get an initial, worst-case window. Say 30 days. Then, as you marched towards that window, succeeding EDD's would each get smaller and more precise... ending up with an assigned VIN and a scheduled delivery.
It obviously doesn't work that way.
Anyone have a clue as to how Tesla derives the EDD dates that they do?
That said, observing the estimated delivery dates of the folks here bounce around like popcorn makes me shake my head. Quixotic is the word that comes to mind.
We can assume that Tesla has a pretty refined picture of the daily production coming out of Fremont. They know what models, what colors, and what trims they are going to build today. And tomorrow. And Wednesday of next week. And Thursday of the week after.
Their logistics department surely knows, to within a few hours, how long it will take to get however many cars to whichever region.
They know the churn rate - the percentage of VINs that are put on hold or are rejected, and thus need x number of additional hours/days to match to another buyer.
They know precisely what their order queue looks like, where each of those orders is to be delivered, and the order date - the priority via which to assign VINs.
Adding all these together into our EDD soup shouldn't be hard. It's what computers do.
And yet we constantly see EDD windows shrink, then get larger again; get pushed out, then get pulled in again.
Supply chain issues come to mind as, perhaps, one reason for Tesla's mysterious inability to accurately predict delivery. But Tesla's delivery numbers in 2021 strongly suggest that whatever difficulties those supply chains impose... happen upstream of the factory floor. Tesla's parts people and software teams have clearly managed to make supply chain problems a manageable issue.
What you'd expect is that when you submit your order you'd get an initial, worst-case window. Say 30 days. Then, as you marched towards that window, succeeding EDD's would each get smaller and more precise... ending up with an assigned VIN and a scheduled delivery.
It obviously doesn't work that way.
Anyone have a clue as to how Tesla derives the EDD dates that they do?
White/black/19" sports wheel/No FSD
Original order date: 12/5
latest EDD: 2/13-2/19
Vin: xxxNF171717
Should I delay or take? 171 should have the latest update right?
My wife's car is currently an A7 with all snow/winter wheels/tires setup and we are thinking of delaying delivery for the max 1 month
any recommendations/
thanks
Original order date: 12/5
latest EDD: 2/13-2/19
Vin: xxxNF171717
Should I delay or take? 171 should have the latest update right?
My wife's car is currently an A7 with all snow/winter wheels/tires setup and we are thinking of delaying delivery for the max 1 month
any recommendations/
thanks
You should definitely NOT take it since that's the exact configuration I'm impatiently waiting for
In all seriousness, I don't see why you would reject it. 171xxx is a pretty high VIN and almost certainly has the AMD + Lithium Ion LV battery.
Your car will have the latest computer and battery. It will come with all season tires. Driving a Tesla in slick conditions does take a few times of practice and I suggest setting Regen to low and accell to chill during icy conditions.
The day after Groundhog Day and I feel like I’m in that movie, lol. Woke up to the same EDD (2/8-2/21) with no vin/vision agreement. It’s been like this for almost 2 weeks. My OD is 12/5. Thinking they’re just clearing out Oct/Nov orders that were placed on hold and then they’ll get to me? That seems to be the pattern, although I’ve seen several east coast deliveries with early Dec ODs and no holds.
No, it was a rumor based on the M3 manual accidentally updating to show the same ventilated seats as the MS. Almost definitely a glitch. But IF it is intentionally added and coming out for M3, absolutely nobody can predict when.
Gray/black/19" sports wheel/No FSD
Original order date: 12/11
latest EDD: 2/8-2/19
Vin: 170 (2/3)
Original order date: 12/11
latest EDD: 2/8-2/19
Vin: 170 (2/3)
the_real_tdog
Member
Looks like our cars will be on the same truck my EDD is 2/14-2/17
Crany
Member
I ordered on 10/30, put on hold till 12/30. After the hold I received an EDD of 2/5 - 3/5 and as of this morning the EDD still has not changed. You never know what is going to happen with the EDD's. Some peoples never change. Some people get eight to ten different EDD. Some get their VIN when after the EDD shrinks to two weeks and I have seen some recently get a VIN while having a one month EDD.EDD 02/26/2022 - 03/26/2022 hasn't changed since the order was placed a month ago.
I did see a new black performance model pop up as available today in Miami... I told myself if it was still available when I got home from work id try and switch my order.
It was gone before lunch
Like many others I sold my car and am sharing one with the wife until my Tesla arrives. Its not the end of the world but.. I haven't not had my own transportation in 20+ years!
I haven't had anyone reach out from my local Tesla, nor have I received any updates.
Orlando Florida, M3LR, Grey / Black / Aero
Crany
Member
I have the same OD, Same Config other then FSD, Opposite coast. Hoping this is a good sign for me as well.
Crany
Member
I've seen Texas, Ohio, Carolina's, Michigan, New York and Pennsylvania in the last day or two but no New England states.
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New EDD Feb 17-21 -- Birthday and a 4 day weekend what a time to be alive
I have changed from White exterior to MSM exterior and it had no effect on my place in the line. You are placed based on your original order date even though the order date updates when you make a change to your order.
Doggerton
Member
Central Coast Community Energy: Electrify Your Ride Program - 3CE And Monterey Bay Air Resources District: Electric Vehicle Incentive ProgramThat's awesome!!
I'm in Contra Costa County. Were your rebates specific to your city/county? I'm only seeing the ones below.
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