Model 3 - LR AWD Waiting Room

[Andrometer4]

We DONT know what the RWD demand was only that the wait time was longer. The LR seems to have been the more popular model overall. This is all speculation obviously. However, I can't find a good reason for tesla to lower the price unless there is something I am missing. Also prices rarely drop when demand is high. If tesla did that it's going to p.o. a lot of people. Might even lead to cancellations if someone is in the queue come Jan 1st. I just can't seem to figure out what the benefit of lowering prices would be to tesla.

I think Tesla does in fact plan on lowering the price of the LRAWD to remain competitive in 2023. The problem is, they can't do it now for 2 reasons. Reason #1, any existing order not yet delivered would have to be delivered at the new lower price, creating major $ loss for Tesla. Reason #2, if people with open orders knew for sure that the LRAWD would qualify for the rebate in 2023 with a new lower price, most would either try to delay their deliveries or cancel their order. By closing orders and not lowering prices now, they are insuring that the open orders are fulfilled and not cancelled or delayed.

 

[fishy21]

I think Tesla does in fact plan on lowering the price of the LRAWD to remain competitive in 2023. The problem is, they can't do it now for 2 reasons. Reason #1, any existing order not yet delivered would have to be delivered at the new lower price, creating major $ loss for Tesla. Reason #2, if people with open orders new for sure that the LRAWD would qualify for the rebate in 2023 with a new lower price, most would either try to delay their deliveries or cancel their order. By closing orders and lowering prices now, they are insuring that the open orders are fulfilled and not cancelled or delayed.

You summed it up nicely. You think Tesla really cares about a backlog being “too high”?

The fact that it happened at the same time the bill passed the house isn’t a coincidence.

 

[Ashhong]

I think Tesla does in fact plan on lowering the price of the LRAWD to remain competitive in 2023. The problem is, they can't do it now for 2 reasons. Reason #1, any existing order not yet delivered would have to be delivered at the new lower price, creating major $ loss for Tesla. Reason #2, if people with open orders knew for sure that the LRAWD would qualify for the rebate in 2023 with a new lower price, most would either try to delay their deliveries or cancel their order. By closing orders and not lowering prices now, they are insuring that the open orders are fulfilled and not cancelled or delayed.

You bring up a good point i didn’t really consider with reason 1. Not lowering it now means none of the people receiving their cars in 2023 would qualify. The price increased past 55k like late April, so surely they will push all of the ones before out by then.

I think they will definitely remove some feature instead of simply lowering a specific cost. Maybe as a way to avoid price matching current orders because it’s “not the same config”

 

[JB47394]

The only was I see this being viable is to discontinue the RWD. Then you can make a model 3 awd, model 3 LR and model 3P. Right now a RWD is 46000 base. A "retooled" LR3 would need to be 54999 max. Take away 7500 and it is 47499. See the problem? No one would buy the RWD anymore period.

This would do many things (all bad)
1) Tesla would need to d/c the RWD and lose those orders
2) Tesla would have ruined the 3LR model by downgrading it and lose those orders
3) Tesla would be losing money as they have now lowered prices and cost themselves orders

However, if tesla d/c the RWD made a "slightly" improved model 3 standard and sold that for 50k then the opposite happens.

So no the LR isn't going anywhere and likely isn't getting a price reduction but I think the RWD (in it's current iteration) has its days numbered

** Of course this is all speculation but to me it seems the most logical and practical route to take

Here's another interesting speculation. They're suspending Long Range orders so they can redirect 2170 batteries to Model Y production. The current Model Y Long Range should qualify for the tax credit, so demand for it is only going to increase. That increase in demand would dovetail perfectly with Tesla's Austin factory except that Austin needs 4680 batteries to really fly. Right now, they're falling back on 2170 batteries to keep production going. If they don't have enough 2170 batteries for all the lines, they'd obviously go with the vehicles with the largest profit margin. Between the Model 3 Long Range and the Model Y long range, the Model Y Long Range wins.

If this is all true, then the order page's "Available in 2023" doesn't mean "Available in January 2023" but "Available sometime in 2023". That would be because they're just going to suspend Long Range orders until they can get the 4680 production lines up to speed. A worst case would see that extending to 2024. Tesla is under no obligation to resume ordering in 2023 simply because the web page says that's when it will happen.

Edit: In this scenario, Fremont would probably restructure a bit to increase their Model Y output, helping to address the increase in demand. Tesla may just become "The Model Y Company".

 

[wiparker824]

I think Tesla does in fact plan on lowering the price of the LRAWD to remain competitive in 2023. The problem is, they can't do it now for 2 reasons. Reason #1, any existing order not yet delivered would have to be delivered at the new lower price, creating major $ loss for Tesla. Reason #2, if people with open orders knew for sure that the LRAWD would qualify for the rebate in 2023 with a new lower price, most would either try to delay their deliveries or cancel their order. By closing orders and not lowering prices now, they are insuring that the open orders are fulfilled and not cancelled or delayed.

This seems spot on. If you think about it the last price before they shut it down was starting at $57,990 I believe so, if they plan to get it to say $54,990 AND it qualifies for $7,500 off at point of sale you’re looking at going from $57,990 to $47,490. Which is a massive difference to a buyer… on a 60 month loan this is roughly $200 a month difference. Not only does that mess up M3LR potential sales in remainder of 2022, it also messes up new sales of the M3SR in 2022… who would want to pay $46,990 (current SR price) for a SR when they can get a LR for $500 more? If they do plan to lower the price, they pretty much had to do this for remainder of 2022.

 

[ZZ118]

Here's another interesting speculation. They're suspending Long Range orders so they can redirect 2170 batteries to Model Y production. The current Model Y Long Range should qualify for the tax credit, so demand for it is only going to increase. That increase in demand would dovetail perfectly with Tesla's Austin factory except that Austin needs 4680 batteries to really fly. Right now, they're falling back on 2170 batteries to keep production going. If they don't have enough 2170 batteries for all the lines, they'd obviously go with the vehicles with the largest profit margin. Between the Model 3 Long Range and the Model Y long range, the Model Y Long Range wins.

If this is all true, then the order page's "Available in 2023" doesn't mean "Available in January 2023" but "Available sometime in 2023". That would be because they're just going to suspend Long Range orders until they can get the 4680 production lines up to speed. A worst case would see that extending to 2024. Tesla is under no obligation to resume ordering in 2023 simply because the web page says that's when it will happen.

I've seen this theory but it holds no water. They're not canceling orders only stopping new ones so no diversion of resources for months while they lower the current backlog and fulfill those orders

 

[JB47394]

I've seen this theory but it holds no water. They're not canceling orders only stopping new ones so no diversion of resources for months while they lower the current backlog and fulfill those orders

In this scenario, they'd like to have the cells as soon as possible, of course, but you don't cancel that many orders. It would be a public relations disaster. So they wind down the Model 3 Long Range to free up 2170 production as of January. If true, it suggests to me that they're not that confident that the 4680 lines can be ramped up very quickly. They don't see a serious ramp by the end of the year - and then some - because they're suspending production of a successful product.

 

[ZZ118]

In this scenario, they'd like to have the cells as soon as possible, of course, but you don't cancel that many orders. It would be a public relations disaster. So they wind down the Model 3 Long Range to free up 2170 production as of January. If true, it suggests to me that they're not that confident that the 4680 lines can be ramped up very quickly. They don't see a serious ramp by the end of the year - and then some - because they're suspending production of a successful product.

I get that but still why? The model 3 is their second best selling model and the LR is surely driving a large chunk of that. They made a great profit off the LR3 too. Are they really willing to jeopardize thousands of potential future sales just to squeeze a little more profit out of the Y. A profit that they will not be able to capitalize on for many months as well since they still need to fill current 3 orders before they divert resources.

 

[ZZ118]

Here's my overall speculative view of this situation with the LR.

Yes it has to do with the EV credit but not in the way you think. The EV credit already exists and Tesla doesn't qualify, and they still have very high demand. So Tesla is in no rush to reinvent the wheel so to speak since they already have excessive demand.

Instead, Tesla is locking the doors and circling the wagons. Historically tesla has honored price decreases for preorders while locking in prices against increases. Right now the wait list for a LR 3 is extending way into 2023 and tesla will be losing money on them should another increase happen since they are locked into a lower price. Elon has talked about this before with price increases being based on projections of future costs of materials.

The second and more "sinister" reason has to do with the EV credit but not how you think. Tesla is essentially forcing people who already preordered the LR prior to any decrease or rebate to take the car at that price point. You can't leave the line now and you can't get in. This prevents people from shopping around and/or hedging bets by preordering a RWD then switching to a LR etc.

This allows Tesla to use the backlog to their advantage. They can ride out their current orders well into 2023, assess how the credit is working for other automakers and how demand still is. All without changing a thing on their end and still collecting the LR payments at a higher price point. In addition, they have time to potentially retool the LR if they so desire to hit the rebate.

Now do I think tesla will retool the LR? Doubt it. Why fix what isn't broken. The EV credit already exists and Tesla is still outselling its competitors by a long mile. Tesla is well on track to be a top world automaker in the next few years. People say but complcency destroys companies, I agree but Tesla isn't complacent. Also this is not a netflix thing as another company can't just start buying up software rights. Tesla has built a giant infrastructure of batteries, production, materials, chargers. etc. That takes physical time to do and you can't just flip a switch and have that if you are another automaker. The headstart tesla has right now is massive and growing. They continue to innovate software and refine hardware. So no I don't think they are worried that not having a 7500 credit will undermine sales. It didn't for me and it didn't for anyone reading this who has or is taking delivery of a car this year. You could have bought BMW or Porsche or Leaf or Bolt and gotten the rebate. But you didn't and there is a reason why. Tesla knows this and they are capitalizing on that.

So for the tldr, at the end of the day I think this is just tesla trying to clear a backlog while also reassessing their options and protecting their current price point. Might some things change when the LR is put back online in a 2023, yes but I don't think its going to be as major as people are making it out to be.

 

[JB47394]

I get that but still why? The model 3 is their second best selling model and the LR is surely driving a large chunk of that. They made a great profit off the LR3 too. Are they really willing to jeopardize thousands of potential future sales just to squeeze a little more profit out of the Y. A profit that they will not be able to capitalize on for many months as well since they still need to fill current 3 orders before they divert resources.

You brought up the fact that a cut-rate Model 3 Long Range that qualified for the tax credit would cannibalize sales of the Model 3 Rear Wheel Drive. That same effect is in force here; the Model Y Long Range with a tax credit will cannibalize sales of the Model 3 Long Range. Lower the price of the Model Y Long Range by $7,500 and Model 3 Long Range sales will dry up. The Model 3 Rear Wheel Drive remains sufficiently cheaper that it won't be affected.

As for priorities, everything that Tesla is doing in this area is focused on the Model Y. There is no gigafactory for the Model 3. There are no gigacastings for the Model 3. There are no 4680 batteries for the Model 3. It's all about the Model Y. That matches the industry trend of stepping away from sedans and towards SUVs and crossovers.

 

[ZZ118]

You brought up the fact that a cut-rate Model 3 Long Range that qualified for the tax credit would cannibalize sales of the Model 3 Rear Wheel Drive. That same effect is in force here; the Model Y Long Range with a tax credit will cannibalize sales of the Model 3 Long Range. Lower the price of the Model Y Long Range by $7,500 and Model 3 Long Range sales will dry up. The Model 3 Rear Wheel Drive remains sufficiently cheaper that it won't be affected.

As for priorities, everything that Tesla is doing in this area is focused on the Model Y. There is no gigafactory for the Model 3. There are no gigacastings for the Model 3. There are no 4680 batteries for the Model 3. It's all about the Model Y. That matches the industry trend of stepping away from sedans and towards SUVs and crossovers.

My counter reply is not everyone wants a suv or the model Y. I know I don't. It's ugly. Looks like a block on wheels. The 3 to me looks sleek. Yes I know not everyone feels that way and I know the Y is getting front priority but I don't think Tesla will gut their second most popular car just to squeeze out a little more for the Y. That's like chopping off your left hand to get an extra finger on your right hand.

I've argued before the RWD has no place existing especially if the LR gets a price chop. Tesla seems to softly discourage people from buying it as well by not including things like floor mats lol and making people wait in limbo for over a year.

You do make good points and only time will tell the reasons behind these moves

Thank you for the friendly debate while we pass the time

 

[SCJaguars]

If the model Y is considered a SUV with the 80k price cap, I could see a big price increase to maintain the buffer from the Model 3LR.

 

[JB47394]

My counter reply is not everyone wants a suv or the model Y. I know I don't. It's ugly. Looks like a block on wheels. The 3 to me looks sleek. Yes I know not everyone feels that way and I know the Y is getting front priority but I don't think Tesla will gut their second most popular car just to squeeze out a little more for the Y. That's like chopping off your left hand to get an extra finger on your right hand.

I've argued before the RWD has no place existing especially if the LR gets a price chop. Tesla seems to softly discourage people from buying it as well by not including things like floor mats lol and making people wait in limbo for over a year.

You do make good points and only time will tell the reasons behind these moves

Thank you for the friendly debate while we pass the time

Oh I agree on the styling of the Model Y; it looks like a Model 3 with the mumps. The point here is not that the Model 3 has appeal, but that the Model Y already has so much more appeal on the market, and the tax credit puts that appeal on steroids while at the same time it will eat into the Model 3 Long Range orders because of price overlap. Tesla already knows about the long term appeal of the Model Y and is putting a lot of research and development into it. The tax credit just reinforced that strategy, making it important that they have the battery supply for the increase in Model Y production. It's just a lot of effects and forces that favor the Model Y over the Model 3.

And yeah, we'll just have to wait and see. I speculate about things all the time and I'm invariably wrong My thanks to you in return for the debate. It's nice to be among adults on the web.

If the model Y is considered a SUV with the 80k price cap, I could see a big price increase to maintain the buffer from the Model 3LR.

It looks like Tesla won't bump the Model Y price because they just set everything in motion to accommodate a higher order volume. Right? Austin was built in large part to deal with Model Y order volume. Now they've suspended Model 3 Long Range orders which will allow them to switch over even more production to the Model Y come the new year. Tesla has encountered the perfect storm for one vehicle, and that's the Model Y Long Range. They're hitting the ground running to build as many of them as they possibly can.

 

[MSM4thewin]

New EDD Sept 16 to Oct 21. Feels like it’s starting to get close and hoping for no push back.

 

[ZZ118]

Oh I agree on the styling of the Model Y; it looks like a Model 3 with the mumps. The point here is not that the Model 3 has appeal, but that the Model Y already has so much more appeal on the market, and the tax credit puts that appeal on steroids while at the same time it will eat into the Model 3 Long Range orders because of price overlap. Tesla already knows about the long term appeal of the Model Y and is putting a lot of research and development into it. The tax credit just reinforced that strategy, making it important that they have the battery supply for the increase in Model Y production. It's just a lot of effects and forces that favor the Model Y over the Model 3.

And yeah, we'll just have to wait and see. I speculate about things all the time and I'm invariably wrong My thanks to you in return for the debate. It's nice to be among adults on the web.

It looks like Tesla won't bump the Model Y price because they just set everything in motion to accommodate a higher order volume. Right? Austin was built in large part to deal with Model Y order volume. Now they've suspended Model 3 Long Range orders which will allow them to switch over even more production to the Model Y come the new year. Tesla has encountered the perfect storm for one vehicle, and that's the Model Y Long Range. They're hitting the ground running to build as many of them as they possibly can.

While I 100% percent agree with the model Y having such appeal I just can't wrap my head around the idea it's to divert resources. Why stop taking orders then on your second most popular car. Even then they will not be able to divert resources until next year since they still have many LR3 to fulfill. They can't reap those extra batteries until mid 2023 without sending current lr3 orders into a limbo. Even more so then (lol) why didn't they just keep the books open and let the LR languish in production hell like the RWD. Those people are waiting 12-18 months and seem to be staying around. There's a lot going on but I just can't buy the idea that this was just simply to get more batteries into the Y in mid 2023

Your argument about the pricing and rebate for the Y may hold some merit but this still seems like the strange thing to do. As I was implying before there are many people who will not buy the Y regardless of the point simply cause they don't want an (ugly) suv thing.

 

[Murky-Article]

 

[sbmike]

Omg, EDD jumped back now up wtf.

New EDD: Aug 31 - Sep 28

 

[sdornan]

I have a VIN and my EDD is August 23-27. I’m a bit tempted to cancel the order to see what 2023 brings with the tax credit. But I’m also afraid my 2020 SR+’s trade-in value will go down if I wait too long. I’ll probably just end up taking delivery of it.

 

[Ashhong]

Omg, EDD jumped back now up wtf.

New EDD: Aug 31 - Sep 28

EDDs have been known to randomly jump out months away and then correct themselves. I thought your 2023 EDD was weird and didn’t make sense. I recommend starting the Adelfi application very soon.

 

[HeatherW22]

Hey Folks! I am taking the delivery of my M3LR on 08/13. MVPA on the website shows an odometer rating of 15 miles. Is it normal for a new car to have 15 miles on the odometer already? Maybe I am overthinking this but posts like this make me worry: Tesla Sold Me A Wrecked M3 As New

Yeah mine said 15 as well. But when I got there it was only 7. They said they just put that in there so they. An drive it around the lot etc