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Model 3 reveal effect on other luxury car sales

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Perhaps. Except that the gains in sales of AUDI A4 in U.S. Sales don't match the drop in BMW 3-Series sales here. I rarely ask leading, rhetorical questions, but I did this time. I'm rather certain that the continued drop in Sales for the 3-Series overall is roughly equivalent to demonstrated interest in the Tesla Model ☰. A 25.5% drop in sales of 3-Series in 2016 relative to 2015 (per GCBC) was necessary for the Mercedes-Benz C-Class to take first place in the segment -- with total sales that were ~10% lower in 2016 than in 2015. The greatly depressed sales of 3-Series were still only about 4,000 units shy of doubling A4 Sales, despite being below 90,000 units for the first time in fifteen years straight.

Some may point to the launch of a new 3-Series platform for 2017 as a reason for lame duck sales of 2016 models -- and that may be a contributor as well. Perhaps. But so far in 2017, 3-Series sales in the U.S. are already 6.6% behind 2015 through the first two months of the year. About halfway through 2015 BMW decided to decouple 3-Series sales from those of the 4-Series -- but 4-Series sales have declined precipitously as well in the past few years.


I think that people tend to buy what they want, what they need, what they can afford. In tough economic times Americans in particular gravitate toward the 'bigger is better' philosophy with their purchases. That applies to just about anything from double rolls of toilet paper to thick-soled shoes. So yeah, even those who commute to work alone might prefer a five-, six-, or seven-passenger SUV to a 2+2 Coupe when spending their own dough. I think that there are those who are beginning to think the U.S. is dangerously underpopulated, and still believe that there is some viable strategic significance to having a large standing army, and thus would be very happy if more people would get married and have multiple children. I know very few people that actually need a people mover SUV or minivan due to rapidly expanding families. I think of owning those types of vehicles as I do household chores like washing clothes, doing the dishes, or mowing the lawn. No one actually wants to do it, but once you surrender to necessity and are into the thick of it, it ain't so bad after all. :D

Well...First off I'd say take off the US lens for a second. The trend to SUVs is a world wide fashion trend. It only correlates to 1 thing, cheap gas. However, even then Compact SUVs are the segment crushing it.

Compact SUVs surge past cars in sales growth- Business News

I believe if you ask BMW drivers what they switched to many would say some sort of SUV. That said, fashion trends are just that, trends. SUVs are like station wagons and mini vans. Damn useful. Overall all though you can't take car trends out of context of overall vehicle sales. Cars are but 1 segment, add in SUV and truck sales and you'll see where people are buying.
 
Well...First off I'd say take off the US lens for a second. The trend to SUVs is a world wide fashion trend. It only correlates to 1 thing, cheap gas. However, even then Compact SUVs are the segment crushing it.

Compact SUVs surge past cars in sales growth- Business News

I believe if you ask BMW drivers what they switched to many would say some sort of SUV. That said, fashion trends are just that, trends. SUVs are like station wagons and mini vans. Damn useful. Overall all though you can't take car trends out of context of overall vehicle sales. Cars are but 1 segment, add in SUV and truck sales and you'll see where people are buying.
Pardon me, but I was pretty sure that the discussion in this thread was primarily based upon U.S. statistics. The article you linked to was about a change in focus for sales in India. Indeed, Compact SUVs are also growing in popularity, worldwide. The Honda CR-V and Toyota RAV4 both make a great showing in the U.S. and on the worldwide market, by falling within the top ten sales on each chart. But neither of them sell as well as the Toyota Corolla, Volkswagen Golf, or Ford Focus on the world market. What amazes me is that people in other countries are buying even these smaller SUVs at a fast rate, since there are so many complaints that American cars need to be smaller for use on narrower roads and crowded city streets in Europe and Asia.
 
Pardon me, but I was pretty sure that the discussion in this thread was primarily based upon U.S. statistics. The article you linked to was about a change in focus for sales in India. Indeed, Compact SUVs are also growing in popularity, worldwide. The Honda CR-V and Toyota RAV4 both make a great showing in the U.S. and on the worldwide market, by falling within the top ten sales on each chart. But neither of them sell as well as the Toyota Corolla, Volkswagen Golf, or Ford Focus on the world market. What amazes me is that people in other countries are buying even these smaller SUVs at a fast rate, since there are so many complaints that American cars need to be smaller for use on narrower roads and crowded city streets in Europe and Asia.

I quoted an Indian source to show that the C SUV sales are a phenom everywhere because India is about the back of the line in terms of car trends. In the US all car segments are down and SUVs and Pickups are up. There is just a trend that is completely outside of Tesla's control, going to be a factor in Tesla sales though. I hope that they'll crush the small german/japanese fancy small car market (bmw 3 series, acura, lexus LS, Passat, etc) but we'll see. I am very very hopeful that in 3 years we can sell 300k+ electric cars a year because at that point it is going to get very interesting in terms of an overall market movement. You won't see the full impact by only looking at the car market but one has to also look at all market segments. Really no need to break out by brand even, just look at dollar range and vehicle types.
 
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March numbers are now in:

2017_03%20Model%203_zpsnccouz5u.jpg


This "segment" continues to under perform. January 2017 is down 3k from 2016, February is down 6k, and March is now showing down 9k. Anyone else see a trend there? ;)

As I noted in the Model S sales tracker, U.S. Sales are now trending down overall too. 12 months ended March 2016 had 17,595,067 light vehicle sales, while 12 months ended March 2017 had 17,503,974 sales. Looks like we have now officially entered "shrinking pie territory". For those interested, here are the numbers:

yrr2_zpsbtadrcgb.jpg


Given that the SUV segment has been very strong, and the luxury sedan segment has been quite weak, it will be interesting to see going forward how this plays out in the Model 3 segment. The cars shown above in the spreadsheet totaled 691k units in 2016, or only about 4% of the 17M vehicles sold per year.

Getting back to the individual vehicles, we see the following: The Prius combined sales are still trending down despite good sales of the Prime. Combined March sales of 7,416 are below last years 8,144. It will be interesting to see where the Prime ends up peaking with the Model 3 release coming sooner rather than later.

The Benz C and E classes are doing much better than last year. The C class may even outsell the Prius line for all of 2017. That would be a pretty big swing given the 2016 final numbers (114k Prius vs. 86k C-class).

The BMW 3-series is off to a good start, up 3.81% so far. The Audi's at the top are doing well, as is the Volvo S60. That covers all the vehicles with positive sales increases.

Lexus is the clear loser: IS down 35%, GS down 57%, ES down 26%.

Which brings us to the Bolt. Please refer to the 39,675 page thread discussing why even though 3 months sales of 3,092 are only 10% of the GM projected 30,000 annual sales, the future of the Bolt is so bright you have to wear shades :cool:

RT
 
Interesting article at automotive news
7 hours ago
For Lexus sedans, it could be do or die

With car sales falling at Lexus, Toyota's top branding officer says the luxury line is contemplating sedans that are more casual and sporty - and maybe even a station wagon.
You have to wonder the 3 has huge demand and interest as a sedan. When the Y is revelald it's going to be twice the reservations and demand of the 3!
 
My wife is a great crossover example. After sedans she's had two Lexus 3xx and is now on her second MB 350 (ML, GL). Compared to a sedan she says they are much easier to get in/out, more comfortable and safe feeling to drive sitting up high, easier to carry stuff (groceries, plants/gardening, etc.), and just as good handling (for her).

She switched to MB because they are quieter and smoother than Lexus and handle much better in snow/ice (I think she cured a sales person of thinking he needed to go along on every test drive). Now she says that even if Lexus were quieter and smoother she'd not want to be seen in a car with such a massive ugly grill.

She likes the X but one comparable to a GL is about $28k more (90D, 5-seat, +premium, +cold) without any autopilot, premium sound, or towing. Quiet and smoothness are different in the GL and X. GL has less road noise and is smoother over rough roads, X has less engine noise/vibration. Given how bad MN roads are she's leaning towards the rough road smooth and quietness of the GL on this one.

She expects the 3 to be enough lessor of a car than the GL based on above (and not really a crossover anyway) to not be much of a consideration though she's waiting to see and will then decide between 3, X, and GL. I think she'll go X, but we'll see.
 
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Interesting article at automotive news
7 hours ago
For Lexus sedans, it could be do or die

With car sales falling at Lexus, Toyota's top branding officer says the luxury line is contemplating sedans that are more casual and sporty - and maybe even a station wagon.
You have to wonder the 3 has huge demand and interest as a sedan. When the Y is revelald it's going to be twice the reservations and demand of the 3!

Bottom line is Lexus sales down 35% the first 3 months, just as my chart shows. Maybe the brand simply goes away at some point like Oldsmobile?

You do have to at least give the credit for speaking for 10 minutes and not even mentioning fuel cell vehicles as a path for saving Lexus. Must be drinking out of a different drinking fountain than his Toyota counterparts.

Only 3 days till the April sales update. Is everyone as excited as I am??? :)

RT
 
Bottom line is Lexus sales down 35% the first 3 months, just as my chart shows. Maybe the brand simply goes away at some point like Oldsmobile?

You do have to at least give the credit for speaking for 10 minutes and not even mentioning fuel cell vehicles as a path for saving Lexus. Must be drinking out of a different drinking fountain than his Toyota counterparts.

Only 3 days till the April sales update. Is everyone as excited as I am??? :)

RT
Don't get me wrong my point of posting that article was to point out the demand is shifting to suvs and cuvs
Lexus has some of the best of these in the RX and Nx (I've owned both and drive an nx300h hybrid now) and a new UX compact cut coming in about a year.
The main point is the 3 is popular the Y will be off the charts insane popular because it's a cuv, and an EV and a tesla.
 
Don't get me wrong my point of posting that article was to point out the demand is shifting to suvs and cuvs
No, not from Sedans. Checking sales figures, the best selling Sedans of a decade ago are still the best selling Sedans today. The Compact SUVs (not really Crossovers) have effectively replaced Minivans among the most popular vehicles. Ten years ago, only the Honda CR-V among Compact SUVs at #19 cracked the top twenty vehicles sold in the U.S. In 2016 the CR-V was joined by RAV4, Rogue, Escape, and Equinox within the top fifteen, with three of them in the top ten. No Minivans appeared in the top thirty in 2016.

The main point is the 3 is popular the Y will be off the charts insane popular because it's a cuv, and an EV and a tesla.
It is true that among 'luxury' brands SUVs of all types have become far more popular than flagship Sedans. Typically their SUVs outsell those Sedans by at least a 2:1 ratio, and often by 3:1 or better on a monthly basis. The single best selling vehicle with a premium badge is currently the Lexus RX annually, though it has never sold as well as the BMW 3-Series prior to the unveiling of Tesla Model 3. I expect the Model Y will do very, very well.
 
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Just a quick post before updating the sales numbers later this week...

I was watching a couple TV shows last night, and saw this specific commercial run about 3-4 times:


Ends with "The most fuel efficient car in America"

Looks like Hyundai is going full throttle on the disemboweling of Toyota. So you now have the Model 3 eating into the Prius drivers looking to go full electric but waiting for a long distance car, and Hyundai on the low end selling a more fuel efficient car for less money than a Prius. Lots of good meat on the bone, let the feasting begin...

lions_zpsnls4d1ka.jpg
 
April numbers are in:

2017_04%20Model%203_zps6pg9d3gk.jpg


The web site I use does not (yet) separate out the Ioniq hybrid vs. EV numbers. Insideevs says there were 19 EV's sold in April, so the 1,316 number for the hybrid shown is mostly spot on. Prius sales slipped further from down 26.3% to down 28.8%. The Prius Prime is doing fine however, hitting 1,819 in April.

The Bolt, of course, is well on the way to 30,000 sales for the year. After selling 4,384 total in the first 4 months, sure seems likely they will average 3,202 per month going forward. Those better at teh Maths can correct me if I have this wrong ;)

3 months until the Model 3 gets added to the list. ;) Deferred purchases by those waiting for a Model 3 are likely already baked into the numbers, which could be why they are down. Everyone is buying SUV's now though, so YMMV. But even if your mileage varies, an EV will cost less to operate.

RT

P.S. California gas tax goes up $0.12 per gallon on November 1st. This is indexed to inflation too. Absolutely going to have some TBD affect on gas car sales.
 
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May numbers are in:

m3_zpswqpumwop.jpg


The site I use for the above numbers does not (yet) show separate numbers for the Ioniq Electric. Insideevs says they sold 75 in May versis 19 in April. Prius Prime was the best selling plug in car in May, but not in enough volume to make up for overall lagging normal Prius sales.

RT
Hmmm... I can't tell how this list is sorted. Is it sorted at all, or is it just a random collection of vehicles?

Also, shouldn't the Chevrolet BOLT have the '579' number in the 'Total 2016' column on the far right? That would get rid of the shown '#DIV/0!' error in the '% Change (2017/2016)' column, I think.
 
Hmmm... I can't tell how this list is sorted. Is it sorted at all, or is it just a random collection of vehicles?

Also, shouldn't the Chevrolet BOLT have the '579' number in the 'Total 2016' column on the far right? That would get rid of the shown '#DIV/0!' error in the '% Change (2017/2016)' column, I think.

Sage,
Cars are in random order. Selection is not random, but vehicles chosen are deemed to be in the rough MSRP range of the Model 3. Prius, Ioniq and Bolt in there despite possible Apples/Oranges to Model 3. I keep the order the same because it allows for easier cutting/pasting from prior years months.

The "Total 2016" column on the right shows total 2016 to May 2016, to allow for YOY comparison to 2017 sales. Bolt did not start selling until later in last year, hence the current 0. The "Total 2016" on the left does show the entire years sales, compared to 2015.

RT
 
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Sage,
Cars are in random order. Selection is not random, but vehicles chosen are deemed to be in the rough MSRP range of the Model 3. Prius, Ioniq and Bolt in there despite possible Apples/Oranges to Model 3. I keep the order the same because it allows for easier cutting/pasting from prior years months.

The "Total 2016" column on the right shows total 2016 to May 2016, to allow for YOY comparison to 2017 sales. Bolt did not start selling until later in last year, hence the current 0. The "Total 2016" on the left does show the entire years sales, compared to 2015.

RT
OK, cool. I wasn't sure what was going on, whether they were supposed to be alphabetical, by price range, by size category, market segment, by drivetrain, or something else I hadn't guessed yet. But if I may suggest? Perhaps you should include a few other cars in the list, considering how wide the selection is already:

Acura RLX
Alfa Romeo Giulia
Buick LaCrosse
Cadillac CT6
Chrysler 300

Jaguar XE
Lincoln Continental
Lincoln MKZ

These all seem to be about the same size and price range of many of the other cars in your list, while still being seen as at least 'Premium' brands by a lot of Americans. FYI...? 'GENESIS' is now its own brand, separate from Hyundai.
 
Acura RLX
Alfa Romeo Giulia
Buick LaCrosse
Cadillac CT6
Chrysler 300

Jaguar XE
Lincoln Continental
Lincoln MKZ

The Alfa Giulia and Jaguar XE are direct Model 3 competitors.

The rest are large or larger cars.

The Acura RLX is a tenth inch larger than Model S.

Even though Lincoln MKZ is based on the "midsize" Fusion it is within two inches of Model S.

The Cadillac CT6 is a whopping 204"(8" longer than Model S) long and has a base price of $54k. Cadillac's compact, ATS, and midsize car,CTS, are properly represented on the list.