Model 3 set to dominate it's category as early as next month

[ohmman]

The problem with this theory is that the Model 3 is only PRICED like an entry level luxury car, but it is actually more properly categorized functionally as midsize sedan, like a Honda Accord. Make that sales comparison.

Why? By your logic, this high priced but less functional car should compete terribly unfavorably with the segment listed, yet it is competing well. Seems to me you are incredibly impressed if you’re asking for that comparison.

Imagine a chocolate bar that’s similar in composition to a Hershey bar but sells at the price of a Green and Blacks. Would you compare it’s sales numbers to Hershey or to the higher tier market? If the former, I recommend education on the topic.

 

[ℬête Noire]

The problem with this theory is that the Model 3 is only PRICED like an entry level luxury car, but it is actually more properly categorized functionally as midsize sedan, like a Honda Accord. Make that sales comparison.

I've got someone I'd like you to meet! 200,000th US Delivery

I would like to hear you make your case for grouping the Model 3 as a car that is functionally equivalent to an Accord rather than a BMW 3. Detailed rather than hand-wavy, please.

 

[ℬête Noire]

Why? By your logic, this high priced but less functional car should compete terribly unfavorably with the segment listed, yet it is competing well. Seems to me you are incredibly impressed if you’re asking for that comparison.

Imagine a chocolate bar that’s similar in composition to a Hershey bar but sells at the price of a Green and Blacks. Would you compare it’s sales numbers to Hershey or to the higher tier market? If the former, I recommend education on the topic.

I suspect the later could uses some "education", too. Perhaps better put, trying to investigate why it's selling the way it is.

The problem with your analogy is the way you present the facts it suggests to me it's marketing glitz that's driving it, and maybe it should be grouped with the former.

P.S. Me, I'm in the "Teslas aren't easy to compare to ICE vehicles, in any way" category. Although grouping by price probably has to happen because that's closer to tapping into the number of people that can feasibly buy them (another deviation from the candy bar analogy), there's that "somewhat cheaper to operator" factor that makes it a little tougher. They probably are properly slotted in the market a little lower than their purchase price suggests.

 

[Eclectic]

I've got someone I'd like you to meet! 200,000th US Delivery

I would like to hear you make your case for grouping the Model 3 as a car that is functionally equivalent to an Accord rather than a BMW 3. Detailed rather than hand-wavy, please.

First, Musk himself said that the Model 3 is a high volume, mass market, affordable car. That defies the label "luxury", even at the entry level.

Second, there's this.

 

[ohmman]

I suspect the later could uses some "education", too. Perhaps better put, trying to investigate why it's selling the way it is.

The problem with your analogy is the way you present the facts it suggests to me it's marketing glitz that's driving it, and maybe it should be grouped with the former.

P.S. Me, I'm in the "Teslas aren't easy to compare to ICE vehicles, in any way" category. Although grouping by price probably has to happen because that's closer to tapping into the number of people that CAN buy them, there's that "somewhat cheaper to operator" factor that makes it a little tougher. They probably are properly slotted in the market a little lower than their purchase price suggests.

I was just trying to point out that the best comparison is on price. You are of course correct that a Model 3 buyer isn’t necessarily a 3 series buyer, nor are they necessarily a Honda Accord buyer. Until there are competitive EVs, segmenting is difficult. Price is not a great bucket method, but it’s the best available.

@Eclectic’s post is actually a supporting point for OPs breakdown, and given that he disliked that post, I’m assuming that was not his intent.

 

[ℬête Noire]

First, Musk himself said that the Model 3 is a high volume, mass market, affordable car. That defies the label "luxury", even at the entry level.

The etherial shininess of the blue and white badge aside, welcome to the BMW 3-Series! If you don't see that as "mass market" you're using the phrase wrong.

 

[Eclectic]

The etherial shininess of the blue and white badge aside, welcome to the BMW 3-Series! If you don't see that as "mass market" you're using the phrase wrong.

You're missing out on the high volume and affordable words that Musk used to describe the Model 3, words that can't be used to describe luxury class cars.

 

[ohmman]

You're missing out on the high volume and affordable words that Musk used to describe the Model 3, words that can't be used to describe luxury class cars.

How does this mean they should be compared in sales? How does it invalidate OPs analysis, as you suggest?

 

[ℬête Noire]

You're missing out on the high volume and affordable words that Musk used to describe the Model 3, words that can't be used to describe luxury class cars.

You're missing out on that being in reference to the Model S (and also certainly to the 3-series....have you seen the rest of BMW's line-up?). Tesla has a reputation, for better and worse, with the general public of being a $$$$$$ car. That line was trying to both break through that to say "you, too, can own a Tesla....and we're still selling these great cars up-market as well".

I mean, BMWblog even takes the Model 3 base as semi-comparable to the 330i (while basically coming to the conclusion I have, Model 3 is heavily differentiated from any ICE). What is the main competition for the Tesla Model 3?

While you provide a link to what is best categorized as Honda parts company ad copy.

 

[Eclectic]

He said that about the Model 3, at its introduction. Check it out yourself.

As for what BMWblog says, who cares? It's editorializing, just like that Honda site's comparison. If you dismiss Honda's, you should dismiss BMW's as well.

I've seen lots of Model 3s now and I've driven one several times. It is much more like my sister's Accord than any BMW I've owned or driven.

Add in the Accord and Camry to the very ambiguously defined "small luxury" car class and I'll bite.

 

[ℬête Noire]

I was just trying to point out that the best comparison is on price. You are of course correct that a Model 3 buyer isn’t necessarily a 3 series buyer, nor are they necessarily a Honda Accord buyer. Until there are competitive EVs, segmenting is difficult. Price is not a great bucket method, but it’s the best available.

@Eclectic’s post is actually a supporting point for OPs breakdown, and given that he disliked that post, I’m assuming that was not his intent.

I expect at the end of the day the best place to slot the M3 in is where it leave a hole in other manufacturer's sales numbers. The tricky part of that was already partially covered earlier in the thread. Because of the 2-year reservation gap it may not be quite as clear where Tesla is leaving the hole as it was for Model S. Also there isn't a much gap between prices down at this level, it's more a continuum than relatively well defined.

 

[Swampgator]

I must have missed the story where Honda purchased a Model 3 to reverse engineer it. Or Toyota.
But I did see these:
Tesla Model 3 vehicles spotted on their way to Germany, presumably to be reverse-engineered

Tesla Model 3 impresses German automaker after being reverse-engineered

 

[ℬête Noire]

He said that about the Model 3, at its introduction. Check it out yourself.

As for what BMWblog says, who cares? It's editorializing, just like that Honda site's comparison. If you dismiss Honda's, you should dismiss BMW's as well.

Thank you. Exactly my point, definitely should toss that link you gave as garbage. ((Even though it's probably far more-so than the link I provided as a "BMW fan" would rather call the Model 3 incomparable and below the 330i , rather than the business that relived on a cheaper base priced car being on the road would want to stretch up their car to the Model 3 .))

I've seen lots of Model 3s now and I've driven one several times. It is much more like my sister's Accord than any BMW I've owned or driven.

Well.....that's one of you, I guess. But please, go on and provide details!

Add in the Accord and Camry to the very ambiguously defined "small luxury" car class and I'll bite.

Camry? ROFL

I own one of those (EDIT: an XLE Hybrid with all the assorted goodies no less), you have to be joking. EDIT: Oh wait, you already suggested the Accord apparently bald faced so I guess not joking. *sigh*

 

[Swampgator]

Thank you. Exactly my point, definitely should toss that link you gave as garbage. ((Even though it's probably far more-so than the link I provided as a "BMW fan" would rather call the Model 3 incomparable and below the 330i , rather than the business that relived on a cheaper base priced car being on the road would want to stretch up their car to the Model 3 .))



Well.....that's one of you, I guess. But please, go on and provide details!



Camry? ROFL

I own one of those (EDIT: an XLE Hybrid with all the assorted goodies no less), you have to be joking.

Yeah I have to agree with you. I am a big fan of Honda and Toyota. Have owned many over the years. Currently own 3 Toyotas including a v6 Camry. This is a nice car.
I have driven a Model S though. SO it's Tesla for me from now on. It's actually hard for me to believe the authenticity of Electic's position I'm sorry to say. For one thing, he has a pickup truck as his avatar on a Tesla forum. I've no problem with pickups, I own a Tundra. But having that for your Avatar on a Tesla focused forum is very strange, almost provocative Secondly, If Electic does own a Model S as his sig shows, he must have a much different experience than I have. After I rented a Model S for a weekend, I said I would never buy anything but a Tesla. Maybe down the road when real BEVs hit the market I may expand my horizons, but for now nothing even comes close to competing with a Tesla as a real, functional, drivers car.

 

[ℬête Noire]

Yeah I have to agree with you. I am a big fan of Honda and Toyota. Have owned many over the years. Currently own 3 Toyotas including a v6 Camry. This is a nice car.
I have driven a Model S though. SO it's Tesla for me from now on. It's actually hard for me to believe the authenticity of Electic's position I'm sorry to say. For one thing, he has a pickup truck as his avatar on a Tesla forum. I've no problem with pickups, I own a Tundra. But having that for your Avatar on a Tesla focused forum is very strange, almost provocative Secondly, If Electic does own a Model S as his sig shows, he must have a much different experience than I have. After I rented a Model S for a weekend, I said I would never buy anything but a Tesla. Maybe down the road when real BEVs hit the market I may expand my horizons, but for now nothing even comes close to competing with a Tesla as a real, functional, drivers car.

Agreed, the Camry has been a champ for us. Save for the dash left of the radio developing an unbearable squeak somewhere past the 100K mi mark, it's been rock solid. Camry has come by it's 3/4mil/year worldwide sales and top selling US car honour honestly.

Still I don't understand how you could put the Camry into some sort of meaningful sales category with the Model 3. Just doesn't make sense, no way no how. EV cost-to-manufacture equivalent is still above ICE but nowhere near that far.


P.S. I've seen Eclectic's explanation about planning to moving away from Teslas/EVs entirely somewhere. *shrug* I mean people have their subject opinions and whatever, and IIRC his had something to do with planning to move to Cornchute, USA were charging infrastructure is poor? I generally let that be and address the more direct matter, no need to go there IMO....but maybe that is applicable here, "I don't like the feel of EVs"** could quickly translate to "the Model 3 crap, not worth anything close to it's price". That's the thing about a heavily differentiated product, for someone that doesn't like the part that makes the product different they are going to place a very low value on the product. *shrug*

** That's fine, my world's big enough for that to be in it.

 

[Swampgator]

Agreed, the Camry has been a champ for us. Save for the dash left of the radio developing an unbearable squeak somewhere past the 100K mi mark, it's been rock solid. Camry has come by it's 3/4mil/year worldwide sales and top selling US car honour honestly.

Still I don't understand how you could put the Camry into some sort of meaningful sales category with the Model 3. Just doesn't make sense, no way no how. EV cost-to-manufacture equivalent is still above ICE but nowhere near that far.


P.S. I've seen Eclectic's explanation about planning to moving away from Teslas/EVs entirely somewhere. *shrug* I mean people have their subject opinions and whatever, and IIRC his had something to do with planning to move to Cornchute, USA were charging infrastructure is poor? I generally let that be and address the more direct matter, no need to go there IMO....but maybe that is applicable here, "I don't like the feel of EVs"** could quickly translate to "the Model 3 crap, not worth anything close to it's price". That's the thing about a heavily differentiated product, for someone that doesn't like the part that makes the product different they are going to place a very low value on the product. *shrug*

** That's fine, my world's big enough for that to be in it.

Agreed, the Camry has been a champ for us. Save for the dash left of the radio developing an unbearable squeak somewhere past the 100K mi mark, it's been rock solid. Camry has come by it's 3/4mil/year worldwide sales and top selling US car honour honestly.

Still I don't understand how you could put the Camry into some sort of meaningful sales category with the Model 3. Just doesn't make sense, no way no how. EV cost-to-manufacture equivalent is still above ICE but nowhere near that far.


P.S. I've seen Eclectic's explanation about planning to moving away from Teslas/EVs entirely somewhere. *shrug* I mean people have their subject opinions and whatever, and IIRC his had something to do with planning to move to Cornchute, USA were charging infrastructure is poor? I generally let that be and address the more direct matter, no need to go there IMO....but maybe that is applicable here, "I don't like the feel of EVs"** could quickly translate to "the Model 3 crap, not worth anything close to it's price". That's the thing about a heavily differentiated product, for someone that doesn't like the part that makes the product different they are going to place a very low value on the product. *shrug*

** That's fine, my world's big enough for that to be in it.

Well you may be correct about Electic. I always prefer to debate the actual issues rather than attack the messenger.
I did go back through all of his 11 pages of posts however and almost every one is negative towards Tesla and Evs in general. Kinda weird for a member of a Tesla Motors Club, I'm just sayin ")

 

[EinSV]

@Swampgator -- thanks for posting the charts.

Looking forward to seeing how your charts look when the Model 3 outsells the C-Class, 3-Series and A4 and then when it outsells all of them combined.

 

[GaryW]

Ok, I've added a few more models in the segment. These are actual March numbers.View attachment 292217 View attachment 292218


These are projections for April. Assumptions made:
#1 Tesla sells 6000 model 3s. I based this on the known fact that over 2000 were in route for delivery at the end of march, and that Tesla will likely build another 8000 in April, of which only half of them will be delivered to customers in April.
#2 The other competitive models will have similar sales numbers as March. Historically this applies as the April numbers tend to be close to or slightly lower than March numbers. This of course does not take into account Model 3 eating away at those competitors, so it's a best case for them.

View attachment 292219 View attachment 292220

So I project Model 3 to lead the segment this month, and increase that lead as the year progresses.
I will update this with actual numbers in early May so we can see if the projections were correct.

Thanks for taking the time to put this together!

 

[SageBrush]

@Swampgator -- thanks for posting the charts.

Looking forward to seeing how your charts look when the Model 3 outsells the C-Class, 3-Series and A4 and then when it outsells all of them combined.

Put on your best Ferenghi voice and say "half ... for me. half ... for the rest of you."

 

[kbM3]

The problem with this theory is that the Model 3 is only PRICED like an entry level luxury car, but it is actually more properly categorized functionally as midsize sedan, like a Honda Accord. Make that sales comparison.

You're missing out on the high volume and affordable words that Musk used to describe the Model 3, words that can't be used to describe luxury class cars.

You’re missing the performance aspect. Model 3 is a legit performance sedan. It is rear wheel drive or all wheel drive. It is quick with great handling, neutral balance, performance tires, suspension... It is compared favorably to a Porsche Cayman.

Do you understand the difference now?