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Model 3 set to dominate it's category as early as next month

Swampgator

Active Member
Apr 27, 2016
1,561
3,142
Florida
This is what should be reported, not the FUD I have seen this week.

Here is a chart I made based on March sales figures for the major players in the entry level luxury sales space. I didn't include Lexus or Alfa as their sales are rather low. If Tesla manages to sell 6000 units in April as they are on target for, they will take over the lead in the category.
March 2018.png
 

P85Dave

Member
Jan 30, 2018
324
384
McLean, VA
This is what should be reported, not the FUD I have seen this week.

Here is a chart I made based on March sales figures for the major players in the entry level luxury sales space. I didn't include Lexus or Alfa as their sales are rather low. If Tesla manages to sell 6000 units in April as they are on target for, they will take over the lead in the category.View attachment 292077

Great chart but could you please update with unit counts as well for perspective?
 

Swampgator

Active Member
Apr 27, 2016
1,561
3,142
Florida
Why did you include the A3 but not the CLA or 2-series?
I will add a couple more charts tomorrow along with some of the smaller players in the space. The main issue is what is the space? A BMW 2 series is a much smaller car than a Model 3, but I admit could be considered entry luxury.
I'll do a percentage of sales, total count as bar graph. I will also project April sales. BTW, sales are down for just about all players (except Alfa and Tesla)
 
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TT97

Active Member
Aug 6, 2017
2,173
2,911
Los Angeles
I will add a couple more charts tomorrow along with some of the smaller players in the space. The main issue is what is the space? A BMW 2 series is a much smaller car than a Model 3, but I admit could be considered entry luxury.
I'll do a percentage of sales, total count as bar graph. I will also project April sales. BTW, sales are down for just about all players (except Alfa and Tesla)

I was actually thinking the opposite - the A3, CLA & 2-series are all considered luxury compact segment and should not be included. However, A4/A5 and 3/4 series are typically grouped together as they are the variation of the same car (similar to how the C Class has both 2 door and 4 door models).
 
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Swampgator

Active Member
Apr 27, 2016
1,561
3,142
Florida
Ok, I've added a few more models in the segment. These are actual March numbers.
March 2018 sales pie charts.JPG
March 2018 sales bars.JPG



These are projections for April. Assumptions made:
#1 Tesla sells 6000 model 3s. I based this on the known fact that over 2000 were in route for delivery at the end of march, and that Tesla will likely build another 8000 in April, of which only half of them will be delivered to customers in April.
#2 The other competitive models will have similar sales numbers as March. Historically this applies as the April numbers tend to be close to or slightly lower than March numbers. This of course does not take into account Model 3 eating away at those competitors, so it's a best case for them.

April 2018 sales projections pie.JPG
April 2018 sales bars.JPG


So I project Model 3 to lead the segment this month, and increase that lead as the year progresses.
I will update this with actual numbers in early May so we can see if the projections were correct.
 

cizUK

Member
Mar 13, 2017
316
272
UK
Ok, I've added a few more models in the segment. These are actual March numbers.View attachment 292217 View attachment 292218


These are projections for April. Assumptions made:
#1 Tesla sells 6000 model 3s. I based this on the known fact that over 2000 were in route for delivery at the end of march, and that Tesla will likely build another 8000 in April, of which only half of them will be delivered to customers in April.
#2 The other competitive models will have similar sales numbers as March. Historically this applies as the April numbers tend to be close to or slightly lower than March numbers. This of course does not take into account Model 3 eating away at those competitors, so it's a best case for them.

View attachment 292219 View attachment 292220

So I project Model 3 to lead the segment this month, and increase that lead as the year progresses.
I will update this with actual numbers in early May so we can see if the projections were correct.
Is that global or just US?
 

P85Dave

Member
Jan 30, 2018
324
384
McLean, VA
Great job with the charts. Could you please add one more chart that shows the breakdown my manufacturer:

Tesla: x units
Mercedes: y units
BMW: z units

etc., Many of the manufacturers have fragmented their sales with variants of the same car so it would be nice to see how Tesla stacks up to other manufacturers... What I'd like to see is Tesla beating the segment on a manufacturer level accounting for the different variants the manufacturers are offering.
 

jimmyjohn

Member
Jun 9, 2013
344
316
Durden
Great job with the charts. Could you please add one more chart that shows the breakdown my manufacturer:

Tesla: x units
Mercedes: y units
BMW: z units

etc., Many of the manufacturers have fragmented their sales with variants of the same car so it would be nice to see how Tesla stacks up to other manufacturers... What I'd like to see is Tesla beating the segment on a manufacturer level accounting for the different variants the manufacturers are offering.

^ THIS!
 
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ItsNotAboutTheMoney

Well-Known Member
Jul 12, 2012
10,766
7,980
Maine
If I look at the chart I see Audi at 32% BMW at 33% and Tesla at 14% so how is it dominating?

March was 3820. 4 x 2.5k = 10k would have been equivalent to "scoring" 36.6%. (Obviously share would not be 36.6% but other companies' share would be reduced.) 4 x 5k = 20k would have been equivalent to scoring 73.3%. "Dominant" would be at some point between since that doesn't even need to be the majority of sales.

"Set to" and "as early as" are rather strong qualifiers though. Given that Tesla is going to try to ship to Canada to see if it can defer the 200k US sales to July, I suspect any domination would deliberately be deferred.
 

ℬête Noire

Active Member
Jan 30, 2018
3,105
2,556
TX
"Set to" and "as early as" are rather strong qualifiers though. Given that Tesla is going to try to ship to Canada to see if it can defer the 200k US sales to July, I suspect any domination would deliberately be deferred.
Yes, come July 1st the caca is going to get real in this market segment %s.

However it's not clear how much these sales are going to cannibalize other manufacturer's sales this year. That should be largely baked in at this point because these are Q3 M3 purchasers have been in the Tesla pipeline for a long time, over two years. I think it's a bad assumption that it'll hit BMW and Audi sales until "word of mouth" effect bites in when potential Audi & BMW purchasers get to ride/drive their friend's M3. ;)
 
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Swampgator

Active Member
Apr 27, 2016
1,561
3,142
Florida
bmw.JPG
Yes, come July 1st the caca is going to get real in this market segment %s.

However it's not clear how much these sales are going to cannibalize other manufacturer's sales this year. That should be largely baked in at this point because these are Q3 M3 purchasers have been in the Tesla pipeline for a long time, over two years. I think it's a bad assumption that it'll hit BMW and Audi sales until "word of mouth" effect bites in when potential Audi & BMW purchasers get to ride/drive their friend's M3. ;)

Not an assumption. BMW 3 series, Audi A3/4, Mercedes C class sales are all down 20-30% from same month last year.
Here is BMW 3 series trend:
 

ℬête Noire

Active Member
Jan 30, 2018
3,105
2,556
TX
View attachment 292274

Not an assumption. BMW 3 series, Audi A3/4, Mercedes C class sales are all down 20-30% from same month last year.
Here is BMW 3 series trend:
That's cherrypicking. Look at the larger trends there in that table. Notice the Mar-Apr imbalance (not sure what did that), but there's pretty clearly already been erosion of the 3 series sales over the last 2 years. How much of that is Model 3 maybe isn't as clear but the erosion itself is there.
 
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Eclectic

Member
Nov 8, 2014
785
900
Montana
This is what should be reported, not the FUD I have seen this week.

Here is a chart I made based on March sales figures for the major players in the entry level luxury sales space. I didn't include Lexus or Alfa as their sales are rather low. If Tesla manages to sell 6000 units in April as they are on target for, they will take over the lead in the category.View attachment 292077

The problem with this theory is that the Model 3 is only PRICED like an entry level luxury car, but it is actually more properly categorized functionally as midsize sedan, like a Honda Accord. Make that sales comparison.
 

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