Model 3 vs CPO easier or harder with so much inventory?

[socal_suburbanit]

First, thank you for clicking through, this forum is a great resource for lurkers, shoppers and owners. I find myself transitioning from lurker to shopper and am looking for other's experience.

I live in SoCal with my family and am the primary carpool driver with two kids of my own. I really want to upgrade to a Tesla and after getting the guarantee of 2018 delivery email I spoke with my wife and got preliminary approval to make a purchase.

After looking over the current Model 3 options I hopped over to ev-cpo and was floored by the sheer number of used Model S sedans currently offered. I have been casually watching over the past year (mostly at close of quarter) and the current prices appear to be quite a bit lower. 85D for low 50s, P85D and even P90D for 60k. Facelift 70 for 55k. Basically a stones throw from a Model 3.

I am super tall (6'7") and fit in a Model 3 as well as a Model S with solid glass roof. Not sure if I can sit in a Panoramic roof sedan-I've read lots of threads about tall drivers and it appears that many people find a way to make things work, but others simply cannot. Hoping at the SC they have some used I can try out.

From forum searches it appears that most people that have both Models would purchase a 3 over an S, partially for newer tech and convenience as well as price. But with low mileage Model S available the idea of 'version 3.0 of a Tesla for half the price' doesn't seem an accurate description of a Model 3 right now.

I am skewing the results by asking in the Model S forum, but what do you guys think is the car to recommend to a family guy that will take a couple road trips a year with a family of four and dog? Am I right that the consensus is the Model 3 has a bit more passenger room both front and back for four while the S holds the fifth more comfortably as well as double cargo space? And if Model S, at the same price is the facelift 70 a better purchase than a 2015 85D?

For sake of argument lets assume the Model 3 will not have autopilot activated. I'm aware of the differences in the systems but don't believe Tesla will crack autonomy during my term of ownership. For me it would be a nice to have for my road trips, so Model S comes with AP1 as a CPO but I won't pay 5k to activate it on a new 3.

And you guys probably know this, but to those that are starting to shop and may not realize Model 3 is now available to test drive. Had no idea.

 

[BulldogsRus]

First, thank you for clicking through, this forum is a great resource for lurkers, shoppers and owners. I find myself transitioning from lurker to shopper and am looking for other's experience.

I live in SoCal with my family and am the primary carpool driver with two kids of my own. I really want to upgrade to a Tesla and after getting the guarantee of 2018 delivery email I spoke with my wife and got preliminary approval to make a purchase.

After looking over the current Model 3 options I hopped over to ev-cpo and was floored by the sheer number of used Model S sedans currently offered. I have been casually watching over the past year (mostly at close of quarter) and the current prices appear to be quite a bit lower. 85D for low 50s, P85D and even P90D for 60k. Facelift 70 for 55k. Basically a stones throw from a Model 3.

I am super tall (6'7") and fit in a Model 3 as well as a Model S with solid glass roof. Not sure if I can sit in a Panoramic roof sedan-I've read lots of threads about tall drivers and it appears that many people find a way to make things work, but others simply cannot. Hoping at the SC they have some used I can try out.

From forum searches it appears that most people that have both Models would purchase a 3 over an S, partially for newer tech and convenience as well as price. But with low mileage Model S available the idea of 'version 3.0 of a Tesla for half the price' doesn't seem an accurate description of a Model 3 right now.

I am skewing the results by asking in the Model S forum, but what do you guys think is the car to recommend to a family guy that will take a couple road trips a year with a family of four and dog? Am I right that the consensus is the Model 3 has a bit more passenger room both front and back for four while the S holds the fifth more comfortably as well as double cargo space? And if Model S, at the same price is the facelift 70 a better purchase than a 2015 85D?

For sake of argument lets assume the Model 3 will not have autopilot activated. I'm aware of the differences in the systems but don't believe Tesla will crack autonomy during my term of ownership. For me it would be a nice to have for my road trips, so Model S comes with AP1 as a CPO but I won't pay 5k to activate it on a new 3.

And you guys probably know this, but to those that are starting to shop and may not realize Model 3 is now available to test drive. Had no idea.

 

[BulldogsRus]

As a non-owner who has been "religiously and maniacally" researching both new and pre-owned (they've apparently dropped 'certified'), from my experience pre-owned can be somewhat of an adventure/crapshoot. Because of the growing pains I'd need tons of patience to get any existing issues resolved under warranty on one, simply because there are so many others...along with new M3 owners. Secondly, I've yet to find a well-cared for used X or S via pics they've sent me. Honestly, it really comes down to how picky you are, are you willing to overlook alot just to be part of the Tesla family? Or are you like myself, who is seeing alot of $60-80k vehicles with dings, scrapes, cracked lenses and molding hanging off? Now it is starting to make sense why Tesla is no longer completely refurbing these units.

If you are fine with the range of an S70 refresh then that may be the way to go, but understand there are already mockups of the next gen interior online which IMHO will have many of the simplistic traits of the M3, the question is when exactly it will be implemented (my guess is mid 2020, if not 2021 at the earliest).

 

[ReddyLeaf]

Family of four with a dog? Wow, I have a S70D and have trouble with just two. Maybe I should start leaving the kitchen sink at home.

 

[socal_suburbanit]

Test drove the LR RWD today in the pouring rain. It was nicer than I expected it to be. Basically found what has been written here before (and let me apologize for creating another one of these threads). The Model 3 has more head room front and back compared to a Model S with Panoramic roof (the sunroof). But for more than four passengers it is pushing it compared to the Model S. They don't sell any used full glass roof cars that i've seen yet-they shipped November 2016 so maybe in a couple months they will start showing up.

So for me the Model S back seat is not going to work with the pre-facelift cars. The Model 3 storage would need my family to learn to pack light for the Model 3 to be useful on trips. But would be fine zipping around town in.

FWIW, they do have quite a few Model 3 in inventory at zero discount, but should be deliverable before EOY for the tax rebate for those that don't meet the 11/30 cut off. My spread sheet has a mid-range, a long range and a long range AWD priced out but my wife and I are still working out how to blend the model 3 into the family successfully. I may sit until I can get a Model S with a full glass roof. Right now a 2016 loaded P90D with a full used warranty is less than $60k. So depreciated more than 50% in three years. That would be a fun ride....I wish the Tesla used buying experience (including supply) was more predictable. Thank you for the comment about the used side being a lot of beat up units. They need a better system to sell $50k-$100k product other than emailing a link to 20 photos and asking for a deposit.

Will probably toss and turn tonight.

 

[Xenoilphobe]

As a non-owner who has been "religiously and maniacally" researching both new and pre-owned (they've apparently dropped 'certified'), from my experience pre-owned can be somewhat of an adventure/crapshoot. Because of the growing pains I'd need tons of patience to get any existing issues resolved under warranty on one, simply because there are so many others...along with new M3 owners. Secondly, I've yet to find a well-cared for used X or S via pics they've sent me. Honestly, it really comes down to how picky you are, are you willing to overlook alot just to be part of the Tesla family? Or are you like myself, who is seeing alot of $60-80k vehicles with dings, scrapes, cracked lenses and molding hanging off? Now it is starting to make sense why Tesla is no longer completely refurbing these units.

If you are fine with the range of an S70 refresh then that may be the way to go, but understand there are already mockups of the next gen interior online which IMHO will have many of the simplistic traits of the M3, the question is when exactly it will be implemented (my guess is mid 2020, if not 2021 at the earliest).

Dear God, I hope they don't take simplistic traits of the M3, and corrupt the interior of the Model S. Tesla time on Model S refresh, more likely 2020 becomes 2024.

You would be better off getting a "beater" Model S then switching to the pickup or Model Y when that shows up in 2020+. The Model S has already taken the first couple year depreciation curve and comes with and 8 year Infinite Mile Warranty on the drive unit and battery, while the Model 3 is limited to 8 years or 100,000 (SR&MR) and 120,000 (LR) miles on the drive unit and battery. I'm at four years and ~80,000 miles on one of my S's and 2 years ~30,000 miles on the other one, so it goes pretty quick.

Get the car, if it needs some TLC, there are whole companies that do this for a small fee. I would compare the specs carefully, a family of four + dog in a Model 3 for road trip with all our stuff would my vision of hell, especially if they are teenagers. You can't even get four sets of golf clubs and four people in the Model 3, I wish it was more wagonesque than sedan and I don't mean that crappy aero'ed out kind that lose 60% of wagon due to the slope of the rear glass. Also if you have kids and dog, you get so stressed out by the wear and tear that the will incur on your daily driver.

Check this thread on a 130,000 mile Model S, first 30 day report..
First 30 days in my used 2014 P85 with 130,735 Miles

 

[kaidou]

I'll be honest after saw the number of people in the car. You will need MX instead of MS or M3. Since you are at SoCal, check EV-CPO out of MX options. the lowest you can get is around 63k I believe. It's slightly overbudget compare to MS or M3, but it will worth it.

 

[Eevee]

If you plan to use the Tesla for those roadtrips then I think the S makes the most sense. That's what I chose and we're a family of three humans, we leave the dogs at home when we roadtrip. There's A LOT more storage space in the S and honestly I wouldn't want to roadtrip in the 3.

 

[Zorg]

At 6'7" in a 3, there will be no legroom for rear passenger.

 

[BulldogsRus]

Dear God, I hope they don't take simplistic traits of the M3, and corrupt the interior of the Model S. Tesla time on Model S refresh, more likely 2020 becomes 2024.

You would be better off getting a "beater" Model S then switching to the pickup or Model Y when that shows up in 2020+. The Model S has already taken the first couple year depreciation curve and comes with and 8 year Infinite Mile Warranty on the drive unit and battery, while the Model 3 is limited to 8 years or 100,000 (SR&MR) and 120,000 (LR) miles on the drive unit and battery. I'm at four years and ~80,000 miles on one of my S's and 2 years ~30,000 miles on the other one, so it goes pretty quick.

Get the car, if it needs some TLC, there are whole companies that do this for a small fee. I would compare the specs carefully, a family of four + dog in a Model 3 for road trip with all our stuff would my vision of hell, especially if they are teenagers. You can't even get four sets of golf clubs and four people in the Model 3, I wish it was more wagonesque than sedan and I don't mean that crappy aero'ed out kind that lose 60% of wagon due to the slope of the rear glass. Also if you have kids and dog, you get so stressed out by the wear and tear that the will incur on your daily driver.

Check this thread on a 130,000 mile Model S, first 30 day report..
First 30 days in my used 2014 P85 with 130,735 Miles

Yup, the reason I said simplistic is that I guarentee that they'll move to that central vent system to cut production costs and probably a floating screen, albeit larger (either horizontally or vertically), and per the mockups probably a simpler main driver display ( possibly w/ HUD?). As far as when, well I guess it will depend on how well the M3 sells AFTER the tax credit reduces. Because honestly, it will be almost 6 years on the MS without any noticeable interior changes, maybe they update the taillights finally. But otherwise sales will plummet without a complete redesign after a DECADE if near 2024. I mean, isn't that why everyone is recommending an older one with Performance for best bang for the buck? You get an almost identical vehicle save for nose and headlights (remedied somewhat w/aftermarket) and almost identical performance of a P100D for less than the half the price. You could literally buy an M3 w/the savings!

 

[luvacoustic]

I have a ‘17 75S refresh with 3 kids, wife, and a biking/kayaking habit. We frequently take 200-450 mile road trips as a family with all of our stuff and it’s not an issue. We also have a minivan, but haven’t used it on the weekends or for road trips in almost 2 years. It’s a big car and very comfortable - larger inside than the 3. It’s not as tall inside and I’m only 5’11, so my seat isn’t all the way back. You may need an X if you put the seat back. My kids are young and the 6 and 7 year old fight to make sure they get to sit in the rear facing seats - which saves a ton of room.

These are my kids when we first picked it up:

 

[luvacoustic]

Since you’re looking for a family road trip car, here are a few more pics to show you how fun it is with a large 7 seat MS.

I’m a foster dad and had twin 2 months old along with my 3, 6, and 7 year olds. They all fit, plus scooters for the park!

Also, bikes for 5 and two 13 foot long tandem kayaks.