Model X Crash on US-101 (Mountain View, CA)

[Icer]

..pile of stuff on the right side of the wall may show a hubcap from the Mazda that hit it after the initial crash.

Got me looking for the other half of the left front wheel now...

That is a much better shot of the scene.
The tire seems to have come to rest in front of the barrier?

 

[mongo]

That is what I was thinking.
Because how else could the wheel split?
The tire must have straddled that part.

if the above occurred, the right upright would hit battery
about where the worst damage is.

Yeah. The left edge of the wheel being to the left side of the barrier and the tire rubber being on the barrier lend itself to the tire impacting on the left vertical. It may also support the concept that the car was trapped by the rails as that might line the tire up for the impact.

 

[buttershrimp]

You might doubt Autopilot could fail in the scenario I described, but at least one person posted here (Alset72) that it did in fact fail at this location in the mode I described.

The assumption of most posters here is that the Model X was traveling in the left most HOV lane and tried to cut across the gore point at the last minute, but at this point we don't know which lane the car was traveling in prior to the gore point. My point is that if the car was traveling in the other (right) HOV lane that by the principles of Occum's Razor, the most probable explanation is the car simply drifted left after the gore point on AP.

The simplicity of scenario I outlined is that it doesn't involve mistakes by other drivers, or reckless behaviour/mistakes by the Model X driver, or substance impairment, or abnormal traffic movement/speed differentials. It only needs 4 basic assumptions:

1. The Model X was in the right hand HOV lane.
2. The car was on AP
3. The driver was inattentive, and
4. The lighting for APs lane resolvling was suboptimal.

Number 4 appears to be true, the other 3 I don't know yet.

We are all speculating at this point, I've mined my footage for similar scenarios at speed on the latest firmware which is likely what he was driving.

Please take a look. I base this on my experience of trying to get autopilot to fail in various scenarios. I could be wrong, but I don't think many people can guess much better than me except maybe @TaoJones or some other autopilot addict.

Demonstration of 2 high speed highway passes, one with lead vehicle blocking the view of barrier and the 2nd showing how AP must be disengaged in order to change lanes and exit.

 

[TEG]

I suspect that this part is really really strong metal meant to protect the pack:

But the edge of the Smart Cushion is really really strong metal meant to cut through a bumper and grab onto a vehicle.
Hardened steel vs titanium ?

It looks like it may have actually stopped the Smart Cushion edge from cutting into the pack, but the pressure was so great that it deformed the pack and maybe bulged and burst it open... (?)

 

[buttershrimp]

You might doubt Autopilot could fail in the scenario I described, but at least one person posted here (Alset72) that it did in fact fail at this location in the mode I described.

The assumption of most posters here is that the Model X was traveling in the left most HOV lane and tried to cut across the gore point at the last minute, but at this point we don't know which lane the car was traveling in prior to the gore point. My point is that if the car was traveling in the other (right) HOV lane that by the principles of Occum's Razor, the most probable explanation is the car simply drifted left after the gore point on AP.

The simplicity of scenario I outlined is that it doesn't involve mistakes by other drivers, or reckless behaviour/mistakes by the Model X driver, or substance impairment, or abnormal traffic movement/speed differentials. It only needs 4 basic assumptions:

1. The Model X was in the right hand HOV lane.
2. The car was on AP
3. The driver was inattentive, and
4. The lighting for APs lane resolvling was suboptimal.

Number 4 appears to be true, the other 3 I don't know yet.

I disagree with your post (with respect... I could be very wrong).... I disagree with the 2nd premise... I don't think AP would have taken that angle.... if you look at my video, watch towards the end.... the 2nd scenario... this is what I think happened, but perhaps with a vehicle in front of him, or TACC engaged.

 

[TEG]

At some point this whole discussion will have (already?) "jumped the shark" and just turned into morbid rehash. I am starting to ponder if I should just call it a day and stop thinking about this any further.

 

[buttershrimp]

At some point this whole discussion will have (already?) "jumped the shark" and just turned into morbid rehash. I am starting to ponder if I should just call it a day and stop thinking about this any further.

I could be wrong, but I can't think of a more important thing to try to figure out. I really appreciate your insight TEG and any help we can offer to shed light on this situation may help tremendously.

 

[sammyfan711]

At some point this whole discussion will have (already?) "jumped the shark" and just turned into morbid rehash. I am starting to ponder if I should just call it a day and stop thinking about this any further.

I think we all just want word on whether or not autopilot was engaged.

 

[Icer]

Electrek: Tesla elaborates on details and potential cause of fatal Model X crash under investigation

Tesla Blog Post: What We Know About Last Week's Accident

 

[SMAlset]

Below are screen grabs from NBCBayArea TV when they ran the video from the anonymous witness who said they helped pull him out and then videod the scene. Debris still everywhere and vehicles trying to avoid it. This video is very helpful to get an idea of where things landed. These are from the from the front left wheel. BTW notice the tire's condition in the second photo. Split apart at the bottom and the upper right is all ragged and I think missing rubber in parts. Third photo gives a nice close up of some of the parts.

 

[mongo]

At some point this whole discussion will have (already?) "jumped the shark" and just turned into morbid rehash. I am starting to ponder if I should just call it a day and stop thinking about this any further.

I think we have picked through most of the available data. I did notice something that I just read corroboration of on Tesla's blog. I think the barrier was (mostly) not there. In a photo you put up in #193, you can see there is only one edge visible, the 4 or so other sections, including the impact frame/sled are not there. I thought they were ripped off, but they may have been removed before the crash.

Edit: also visible in the 3rd pic of the previous post.

Edit: reviewing other shots, Model X Crash on US-101 (Mountain View, CA)
https://teslamotorsclub.com/tmc/posts/2634035/
Shows the reverse view and all the sections are present.

 

[SMAlset]

Say what now? You're the reason I thought this informative. I figured you got the added details from the video. Or did this only mean the car pool lanes are on the left?

I believe the two posts came from different reports throughout the day. I'll try to look back and find. But I do think I watched the video AZ_Rael posted and took what was said directly from it. But the question is interpretation of left car pool lane...did it mean the 85 left most lane or was it the left lane of the 2 101 HOV lanes?

 

[buttershrimp]

I think we all just want word on whether or not autopilot was engaged.

It may not be possible if @verygreen is right, however, I do think someone at Tesla will likely or has likely already tested this scenarios out.

I can confirm AP 2 allows you to cross solid white lines. I've even posted videos on it lane changing into the shoulder.

Yes it can change over white lines, but I have not been able to get it to change over a line into a non lane if the width is not fixed (like a shoulder), which is more often the case... the other important thing to consider in this scenario is that a person who is engaging auto lane change is very likely paying attention. A person changing lanes on TACC may be more likely to be looking over his shoulder while changing lanes at a critical time. I don't see a scenario in this situation where someone wasn't obscuring the driver's vision of the barrier.

 

[buttershrimp]

Look at the 30 second mark.... is this the direction that is most likely given that he was going to work?

 

[TEG]

Something else to consider is the change in lane numbering.
CHP had said this:

The Tesla was then hit by a Mazda as it landed on the #2 lane of US-101 and then hit by an Audi on the #1 lane. Total 3 vehicles involved

I think when the left carpool split off what was once 101S lane #2 now became 101S lane #1.
Also, I am not sure at what point a car in the left carpool lane is considered still on 101, vs now on highway 85.
Are they on highway 85 just as soon as they pass the Y and have the gore area on the right and are not supposed to go back?

 

[SMAlset]

I just noticed in my post above #590 that you can actually see the chevron pattern sticking out behind the debris in a few small spots. Really doesn't look like much of any side barrier metal in that shot. Know it collapses onto itself but that looks super compact if so. Have to look through any other shots I have coming from the 85 direction heading north.

Ah after posting see Mongo noticed the same thing.

 

[TEG]

Tesla Blog Post: What We Know About Last Week's Accident

Thanks. So this part is new to us:

• Due to the extensive damage caused by the collision, we have not yet been able to retrieve the vehicle’s logs.
• We are currently working closely with the authorities to recover the logs from the computer inside the vehicle. Once that happens and the logs have been reviewed, we hope to have a better understanding of what happened.
• Our data shows that Tesla owners have driven this same stretch of highway with Autopilot engaged roughly 85,000 times since Autopilot was first rolled out in 2015 and roughly 20,000 times since just the beginning of the year, and there has never been an accident that we know of. There are over 200 successful Autopilot trips per day on this exact stretch of road.

 

[buttershrimp]

Something else to consider is the change in lane numbering.
CHP had said this:

I think when the left carpool split off what was once 101S lane #2 now became 101S lane #1.
Also, I am not sure at what point a car in the left carpool lane is considered still on 101, vs now on highway 85.
Are they on highway 85 just as soon as they pass the Y and have the gore area on the right and are not supposed to go back?
View attachment 289796

Is this the path that is most likely?

 

[Bubslug]

Look at the 30 second mark.... is this the direction that is most likely given that he was going to work?

The answer is no I think. If he was going to Sunnyvale, the lane which he mostly likely choose to travel, assuming he wanted to travel with the least input required, would be the right HOV lane, of all the 5 lanes possible, coming up to the gore point. This would mean no input was required from him approaching the 85 flyover as that lane continues south on 101.

 

[mongo]

I was off regarding missing sections, but the front structure does appear to be non existant. The barrier width is 31-13/16 inches at the back and 37 7-16 at the front. The X has a 65.4 inch track width and 10.4 inch tires (75.8 outer edge to edge). So if one edge of the barrier hit the left tire near the outer rim, the right edge would hit on the centerline. That aligns with the pack damage impact point.