Model X Crash on US-101 (Mountain View, CA)

[d21mike]

If you replay the video when the car starts to follow the gore lines, the change is abrupt. Why did the driver not pay attention to the road at this time? This sudden movement can happen while driving with AP and usually indicates something is wrong.

I watched a few times. Does not seem that abrupt to me. I have been following a lot of the discussion and what happened in this video seems to be the most logical answer to what happened. I have not followed up but I wonder what Firmware release this guy is on. 10.4 was a pretty big change for me and others.

Anyway, I think CALTRANS needs to do a much better job on these types on roads. It is not just Tesla AP that would have an issue here. As we know there was an accident there within very recently.

This is a very dangerous stretch of highway. So many things can be done by CALTRANS (cheaply) to make it safer.

 

[sinv]

The AP detected something abnormal and warned the driver for 5 seconds,
but the driver did not took control while a sonor and a flashing warning were emitted.

So, who is at fault?

The AP never warned.

 

[Barklikeadog]

The examples I cited all had the Volvo driver at probable fault, but that's immaterial. The fatality stats that I was citing don't consider fault so it doesn't change the numbers. So as for how these kind of statistics get generated, that is most certainly how it works.

To the extent that your comment on the demographic differences between Tesla drivers and the general driving population is pointing out that there will probably be an error in my estimate I agree with you. That's why I called it a rough estimate. However to the extent that your comment is denying the conclusion that AS is a substantial net benefit I disagree. As I illustrated before, no matter how severely you assume the demographics to be skewed it's not enough to make up for the benefit AS seems to provide.

At least, that's true to the extent that I can find supporting evidence. I'd love to see (and I'm not being sarcastic here - seriously) a better set of numbers if you want to propose an alternative quantified analysis.

As an aside. Thanks for engaging with me in a debate about the statistics. It seems to me to be an important aspect of this topic, particularly since it appears to be a key part of Tesla's justification for their decisions.

Here I was warming up my fingers to type something snarky until your last line.
Thumbs up good debate.

 

[JTseng]

I am afraid the point is that Tesla Autopilot IS NOT SAFE

I had an accident January of this year.
Model S P90DL AP1
I was in motorway’s left lane and suddenly a truck went in my lane.
The system did not react at all!
Because of the very normal road conditions, normal speed, straight road, no rain I was relaxed and my intervention has been slower than normal.
I went into the truck and almost destroyed th front part of my Tesla.

Today I am not driving a Tesla anymore and I am writing this few words because I feel right to take part to this discussion.

The point is : ATTENTION

When AP is engaged every human being attention level will be lower than when you drive yourself!
I thougth much to what happened me and this point is very clear to me.
No way that attention level and reaction time can be equal to self driving!

So, until Tesla’s AP will improve to a reasonable safety functioning - and there is much work still to do - its use should be restricted much more than today.

Best Regards
Marco Merati

Very nice of you to share your experience here. I wonder if you traveling speed was much greater than the truck as you approaching the impact location? The lesson to learn here (for me) is to either slowdown or be ready when passing an adjacent vehicle at higher speed. The other question for Tesla's engineer is the current state of AP's collision avoidance capability?

 

[MXWing]

There is no ACC or autosteer on a Bolt. That's why I won't bother with one. I like it's ergo and visibility, but even the ELR had ACC.
You'd have to compare to the only autosteer system GM has in showrooms, the Super Cruise.
The lack of Super Cruise on the Bolt is curious. But Cadillac always gets first dibs on technology.

Curious. Some Volts have ACC so it would have been a sure thing for the Bolt, assumption on my part then.

My point with Lane Keep Assist is its touted as a safety feature that tries to keep you in your lane if you drift. Legally, no difference between that and Chevys. We know though what is the superior system in the field:

 

[d21mike]

The AP detected something abnormal and warned the driver for 5 seconds,
but the driver did not took control during the time where a sonor and a flashing warnings were emitted.

So, who is at fault?

Not sure where you got this information. Below is the only thing Tesla said.

1. "earlier in the drive". How much earlier? You get these warnings every minute or two of not applying Torque.
2. We all no that what they mean my "not detected". I.E. No Torque which means nothing.
3. I am a big fan of Tesla but I am not sure who at Tesla wrote that statement. Seems misleading to the general public.

The driver had received several visual and one audible hands-on warning earlier in the drive and the driver’s hands were not detected on the wheel for six seconds prior to the collision.

 

[Ketchups]

There was a bus accident at this same location a tad over 2 years ago; 2 people died:

https://www.ntsb.gov/investigations/AccidentReports/Pages/HWY16MH005_prelim.aspx

NHTSA's conclusion was reached in March 2018: https://www.ntsb.gov/investigations/AccidentReports/Pages/HAR1701.aspx



Details here: https://www.ntsb.gov/investigations/AccidentReports/Reports/HAR1701.pdf

It was raining that night, which impaired visibility. But, again CalTrans was lax in keeping the attenuator up to snuff (the reflective coatings were missing/worn). AND they were supposed to have updated signage for that intersection by 2014 - and it's still out of compliance today. But also there were (and are still) no markings to indicate the "gore area" is not to be driven in.

Likely to be the same conclusion then, especially if that area is out of compliance. Looks like the blame has shifted from the driver to CalTrans.

CalTrans should just add this to the barrier-

 

[mongo]

Very nice of you to share your experience here. I wonder if you traveling speed was much greater than the truck as you approaching the impact location? The lesson to learn here (for me) is to either slowdown or be ready when passing an adjacent vehicle at higher speed. The other question for Tesla's engineer is the current state of AP's collision avoidance capability?

You mis-attributed @marcopone 's post to @adjacent

 

[SMAlset]

There was a bus accident at this same location a tad over 2 years ago; 2 people died:

https://www.ntsb.gov/investigations/AccidentReports/Pages/HWY16MH005_prelim.aspx

NHTSA's conclusion was reached in March 2017: https://www.ntsb.gov/investigations/AccidentReports/Pages/HAR1701.aspx



Details here: https://www.ntsb.gov/investigations/AccidentReports/Reports/HAR1701.pdf

It was raining that night, which impaired visibility. But, again CalTrans was lax in keeping the attenuator up to snuff (the reflective coatings were missing/worn). AND they were supposed to have updated signage for that intersection by 2014 - and it's still out of compliance today. But also there were (and are still) no markings to indicate the "gore area" is not to be driven in.

Just to correct, that was NOT the same location. It did happen on 101 at a left lane flyover to 85 but way south of the Mt. View location and in south San Jose.

 

[jimmy_d]

Here I was warming up my fingers to type something snarky until your last line.
Thumbs up good debate.

Hahahaha. Man, honesty is so refreshing.

 

[SMAlset]

Likely to be the same conclusion then, especially if that area is out of compliance. Looks like the blame has shifted from the driver to CalTrans.

CalTrans should just add this to the barrier-
View attachment 291504

Strongly disagree with that photo above. We don't want a launch pad for vehicles to fly through the air and land on other cars passing by.

I have already said when I commented on the 3/28 NTBS report of the bus crash orig posting that I do think the NTSB conclusion for the primary cause of the accident will be the line markings and signage in the area with contributing factors. Do think they will find AP acted as designed...following the lines...with probably some suggestions for improvement...although don't know technically those will be possible yet.

 

[MXWing]

I am afraid the point is that Tesla Autopilot IS NOT SAFE

I had an accident January of this year.
Model S P90DL AP1
I was in motorway’s left lane and suddenly a truck went in my lane.
The system did not react at all!
Because of the very normal road conditions, normal speed, straight road, no rain I was relaxed and my intervention has been slower than normal.
I went into the truck and almost destroyed th front part of my Tesla.

Today I am not driving a Tesla anymore and I am writing this few words because I feel right to take part to this discussion.

The point is : ATTENTION

When AP is engaged every human being attention level will be lower than when you drive yourself!
I thougth much to what happened me and this point is very clear to me.
No way that attention level and reaction time can be equal to self driving!

So, until Tesla’s AP will improve to a reasonable safety functioning - and there is much work still to do - its use should be restricted much more than today.

Best Regards
Marco Merati

Out of all the dumb posts I've read in this thread, this might be the dumbest.

1 - Highly unlikely your story went exactly how you told it. This is not representative or reproducible of the AP experience.
2 - I can say I hung an orange on the steering wheel and napped for 300 miles to Vegas. What is there to prove/disprove my statement?
3 - Maybe you are not driving a Tesla because your Tesla is destroyed from your negligence?
4 - What if you had cruise control on from any other car? How would the result change?
5 - Why must you project your inability to pay attention to others? You know the, other 199,997 Tesla owners who manage to stay alive to this point?
6 - We should take away your cell phone, disable your radio, not allow you to have conversations in the vehicle, etc

Christ, this thread is the perfect thread if i wanted to learn how to deflect blame to anyone and everything but myself for anything that goes wrong.

 

[ddkilzer]

I just used the Traffic or Work Zone Concern form on the Caltrans website to request the missing paint be fixed where the accident occurred. (I assume that asking for "new" things like cross-hatching or plastic sticks requires additional approvals or a full-blown study, but fixing deficient lane paint should require much less approval and be a "simple" maintenance request.)

I would suggest that anyone else living in the San Francisco Bay Area do the same if you'd like to see the missing paint fixed.

Here's the text I used (feel free to copy it for use with the Caltrans form, although writing your own text might come across as more authentic):

Paint used to delineate the gore area is deficient (worn off) on southbound US-101 at the CA-85 S carpool exit in Mountain View. The paint that divides the gore area from the US-101 carpool lane is in most need of repair.

Here is a Google Maps reference to the area:
Google Maps

This YouTube video demonstrates the deficient paint on the left-hand lane marking of the US-101 carpool lane (see slow-motion segment at the end):

Thanks!​

 

[SMAlset]

Curious. Some Volts have ACC so it would have been a sure thing for the Bolt, assumption on my part then.

My point with Lane Keep Assist is its touted as a safety feature that tries to keep you in your lane if you drift. Legally, no difference between that and Chevys. We know though what is the superior system in the field:

View attachment 291503

If a system is always keeping a car centered, what does it do about lane splitting with motorcycles. I always felt this was dangerous to allow. Do get why motorcyclists want to get out of the way of cars.

 

[Ketchups]

Strongly disagree with that photo above. We don't want a launch pad for vehicles to fly through the air and land on other cars passing by.

I have already said when I commented on the 3/28 NTBS report of the bus crash orig posting that I do think the NTSB conclusion for the primary cause of the accident will be the line markings and signage in the area with contributing factors. Do think they will find AP acted as designed...following the lines...with probably some suggestions for improvement...although don't know technically those will be possible yet.

In the event that CalTrans continues it's proven track record of failing to repair/update that location...

I'd rather have a spaceX launch

than to end up like this

It is truly amazing that the driver did not die upon the initial impact and went on to survive two more impacts, even though he did pass away at the hospital. This really speaks volumes to Tesla's safety design.

 

[MXWing]

If a system is always keeping a car centered, what does it do about lane splitting with motorcycles. I always felt this was dangerous to allow. Do get why motorcyclists want to get out of the way of cars.

I have a solution but motorcyclists won't want to hear it.

I am unsure of full on high confidence L5 autonomy until cars and motorcycles can communicate with one another.

I've never tested what happens with AP and lane splitting motorcycles. I don't intend to so hopefully someone has data for me in a controlled test environment.

 

[mongo]

I have a solution but motorcyclists won't want to hear it.

I am unsure of full on high confidence L5 autonomy until cars and motorcycles can communicate with one another.

I've never tested what happens with AP and lane splitting motorcycles. I don't intend to so hopefully someone has data for me in a controlled test environment.

General case : motorcycles are just a narrow car with an existence and approach speed. Don't change lanes into them, or cut them off.

Specific case: Can motorcycles herd self driving cars? Or will the cars refuse to be pushed out of lane? I suppose it's no different than other cars changing lanes into you...

 

[MXWing]

General case : motorcycles are just a narrow car with an existence and approach speed. Don't change lanes into them, or cut them off.

Specific case: Can motorcycles herd self driving cars? Or will the cars refuse to be pushed out of lane? I suppose it's no different than other cars changing lanes into you...

As a FYI, You will want to look up lane splitting. It's not legal in your state so you may not have encountered it. It's not the same as lane sharing.

If a lane splitting motorcycle is going up on my right, my "assumption" is Tesla moves over to the left if the left is clear.

If it's not, it holds position. I'm not testing it though. Autosteer goes off for me in this scenario.

 

[Ketchups]

I have a solution but motorcyclists won't want to hear it.

I am unsure of full on high confidence L5 autonomy until cars and motorcycles can communicate with one another.

I've never tested what happens with AP and lane splitting motorcycles. I don't intend to so hopefully someone has data for me in a controlled test environment.

When driving with AP1 engaged in traffic, I have to manually move the car out of the center of the lane, towards the left, to give courtesy space to motorcyclists. AP1 will not do this automatically. Has your APx moved itself when approached by another vehicle?

When riding, I generally stay away from all cars but will lane split during traffic with my high-beams on and rev to be heard.

General case : motorcycles are just a narrow car with an existence and approach speed. Don't change lanes into them, or cut them off.

Specific case: Can motorcycles herd self driving cars? Or will the cars refuse to be pushed out of lane? I suppose it's no different than other cars changing lanes into you...

I like that idea !!!! and we sort of do this now with cars, during traffic. It's a very much appreciated courtesy!

 

[arcus]

Our local HOV lanes have double lines, spaced a few feet apart, between the HOV lane and the regular traffic lanes. Periodically there is a stretch where you are allowed to transfer on/off the HOV lane. When that happens the lines merge and the HOV lane gets several feet wider.

What happens when AP2 comes across this sudden widening? It follows the left-hand line at the same distance for a couple of car lengths, and then suddenly jerks towards the "new" center of the lane.

Similarly when the transfer section ends and the lane narrows up again, AP2 drives straight for a bit, and then suddenly jerks towards the "new" center of the lane again.

These jerks are so violent that I disengage autopilot when using the HOV lanes. On longer stretches I may turn it on, but then hold the wheel very solidly when we transition... or simply turn AP off just before it happens.

I don't have experience with such HOV lanes here, but the same applies to on- and off-ramps. While 2018.10.4 was WAY better than the previous incarnation, I have also observed that the car is eager to "jump" and center itself in now wider lane - and doing so rather abruptly.

Funny though, auto-lane change in previous firmware (prior to 10.4) would execute left-lane change very smoothly, but coming back to right lane was really sharp - this has been fixed in 10.4. Hope the wide lane handling will also improve.