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Blog Musk Hopes SpaceX Falcon Heavy Launch Will Inspire Space Race

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SpaceX received cheers around the world this week for the successful launch of Falcon Heavy, which is now the most powerful rocket in operation. In fact, TMC members from all over traveled to view the launch in person.

Now that Starman’s breathtakingly scenic livestream has ended, here’s roundup of some of the details that emerged around the mission.

Payload: The Roadster – SpaceX delighted the world with a livestream of Elon Musk’s Tesla Roadster traveling through space. Typical of a Tesla, acceleration was more rapid than expected. The Roadster was supposed to follow a path around the Sun that would place it near Mars’ orbit. However, the second stage burn overshot that trajectory and beyond an encounter with Mars. Musk previously said the car may reach the asteroid belt, but SpaceX later updated the projection to say the car will come short of that distance. As Space.com notes, “Starman and Musk’s Roadster are in an elliptical orbit around the sun. At their closest point to the sun, they will fly just inside the Earth’s orbit. At their farthest away, they’ll be 243 million miles (390 million kilometers) from the sun. For comparison, Earth’s average distance from the sun is about 93 million miles (150 million km). Mars orbits the sun at 142 million miles (228 million km).”

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The livestream of Starman and the Roadster was the second largest in YouTube’s history, reaching more than 2.3 million concurrent views.

Track the Roadster as a Celestial ObjectNASA’s Jet Propulsion Laboratory’s website allows users to track the Roadster’s position in space. Within the interface, click “change” next to the target body, type in “SpaceX,” hit enter, then click “Generate ephemeris.” The same system tracks all the other bodies in the Solar System.

But NASA also provides a disclaimer: “Prediction errors could increase significantly over time due to unmodeled solar presure [sic], thermal radiation, or outgassing accelerations that are not characterized.”

Middle Booster – The center core only fired one of the three engines necessary for landing and it missed the drone ship. The booster slammed into the water at 300 mph, showering the deck of the ship with shrapnel, according to Musk. SpaceX at least knows the source of the landing failure to address before the next launch.

The outer boosters, however, separated as expected about two and a half minutes after liftoff and returned to Earth, spectacularly touching down just seconds apart.

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Arch Mission Foundation
– SpaceX placed an “Arch” storage system containing Isaac Asimov’s Foundation book series inside the Roadster. An Arch is “5D optical storage in quartz” – small glass disks – capable of storing 360 terabytes of data, with an estimated lifespan of up to 13.8 billion years. The disks are expected to survive even in the harsh conditions of space. Asimov’s work was added to the payload in support of the Arch Mission Foundation. The foundation’s goal is to permanently archive human knowledge for thousands to billions of years. “We exist to preserve and disseminate humanity’s knowledge across time and space, for the benefit of future generations.”

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Space Suit
– The Starman mannequin was wearing an actual production SpaceX crew spacesuit. The sleek suit will be worn by SpaceX astronauts flying on Crew Dragon. And Starman wasn’t just being stylish. The suit was being tested in the correct conditions to meet qualification articles set by NASA in order to operate crewed launches.

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“I mean, it’s a dangerous trip, you want to look good,” Elon Musk said at a press conference following the launch. “It’s easy to make a spacesuit that looks good but doesn’t work; it’s really hard to make a spacesuit that works, and looks good.”

Falcon Heavy is Capable – The rocket proved its power. “The great thing about Falcon heavy is that it opens up a new class of payload,” Musk said. “It could launch one more than twice as much payload as any other rocket in the world, so it’s up to customers what they might want to launch. But it can launch things direct to Pluto and beyond. No stop needed.”

Musk Wants to Inspire – Despite losing the center core and missing the payload target, the Falcon Heavy launch is considered a great success. Musk said he welcomes competitors, as it will help continue to push science and technology forward.

“I think it’s going to encourage other countries and companies to raise their sights and say hey we can do bigger and better, which is great,” he said. “We want a new space race. Races are exciting.”

 
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Putting serious resources into developing the capability to deflect large asteroids is definitely worth doing. But as far as I know, currently no real effort is being made, just theoretical research into how it might be done. Elon is busy, to the 10th power. Someone else needs to step up. Private companies aren’t interested because there is no profit to be made. Governments can’t get a consensus in place to spend the money. We need another very wealthy visionary who cares about the future.

Has the theoretical research come up with an approach that can reliably provide the protection for a feasible cost?
If the answer is not really, why would anyone invest massively now in a project that has little underlying support as to effectiveness vs
waiting until there was a good solution?
 
Has the theoretical research come up with an approach that can reliably provide the protection for a feasible cost?
If the answer is not really, why would anyone invest massively now in a project that has little underlying support as to effectiveness vs
waiting until there was a good solution?
Extinction causing asteroids are rare. Planet sterilizing even more rare. But city killer size asteroids come once in 100 - 200 years. For example Tunguska event - Wikipedia was about 1000 times more powerful than nuclear bomb dropped to Hiroshima. It would be very useful to detect these early enough to evacuate target area. Chelyabinsk meteor - Wikipedia was only 26 to 33 times Hiroshima. It came in shallow angle. Because of this it exploded high in the atmosphere and nobody died. If it had come straight down into densely populated area, many would have died. We did not detect it before impact.

Nobody has died yet because of meteorite, so it is not taken seriously. We have 3 got warnings. Two mentioned above and Comet Shoemaker–Levy 9 - Wikipedia It did hit Jupiter with roughly same energy as one that killed dinos here. Jupiter is much bigger target, but we certainly don't detect all meteors hitting it, not even large ones.

It has been calculated that for an average person risk in dying on meteorite impact is same as dying on airplane crash. Of course most people on Earth do not have money for airplane trip. We'll wait when and where next one comes.

How hard asteroid defense would be? Absolutely most important and cheapest is to find incoming rocks early enough. Oumuamua was found when it was going away from Earth.

To prevent space rock hitting Earth we must push it about 10 000 km. If we do it a year before impact, we need speed 10 000 km/year = 1.14 km/h. Ten years before 0.114 km/h would be enough. So time is very important.

Nuclear bomb is most effective and easy to understand. Gentler and cleaner methods should be used, if there is time. For very complex and very important task I would send manned mission, because if something fails they can improvise. Problem is that chemical energy is not enough to match speed with incoming object. BFS might be able to visit asteroid given enough time, but not comets or interstellar objects. In near future we must use unmanned probes.

- First option is to explode weapon near the comet. Heat would evaporate material pushing comet to opposite direction.
- If this is not enough, explode it under the surface. Some nuclear missiles are designed to do that (to destroy enemy bunkers). This ejects material and creates a crater. Crater works like nozzle of a rocket engine.
- Comet/asteroid could break into pieces. If those pieces are on collision course with Earth, situation is much worse that it was. In this case next bombs must be exploded inside of debris cloud forcing it to disperse faster.

We need:
1) Several large telescopes to find incoming objects.
2) NASA is planning space station with ion drive. This is first step towards being able to travel far away to deflect large meteors.
3) Testing this would be useful. Perhaps we have to test less powerful methods and hope really big ones don't come soon.
 
  • Informative
Reactions: Grendal
It has been calculated that for an average person risk in dying on meteorite impact is same as dying on airplane crash. Of course most people on Earth do not have money for airplane trip. We'll wait when and where next one comes.

Apparently only one person is documented to have been hit by a meteor: For the Only Person Ever Hit by a Meteorite, the Real Trouble Began Later | Smart News | Smithsonian . But she didn't die.

But lots of people have died in plane crashes. So I don't quite understand how those odds can be equal.
 
  • Informative
Reactions: Grendal
Extinction causing asteroids are rare. Planet sterilizing even more rare. But city killer size asteroids come once in 100 - 200 years. For example Tunguska event - Wikipedia was about 1000 times more powerful than nuclear bomb dropped to Hiroshima. It would be very useful to detect these early enough to evacuate target area. Chelyabinsk meteor - Wikipedia was only 26 to 33 times Hiroshima. It came in shallow angle. Because of this it exploded high in the atmosphere and nobody died. If it had come straight down into densely populated area, many would have died. We did not detect it before impact.

Nobody has died yet because of meteorite, so it is not taken seriously. We have 3 got warnings. Two mentioned above and Comet Shoemaker–Levy 9 - Wikipedia It did hit Jupiter with roughly same energy as one that killed dinos here. Jupiter is much bigger target, but we certainly don't detect all meteors hitting it, not even large ones.

It has been calculated that for an average person risk in dying on meteorite impact is same as dying on airplane crash. Of course most people on Earth do not have money for airplane trip. We'll wait when and where next one comes.

How hard asteroid defense would be? Absolutely most important and cheapest is to find incoming rocks early enough. Oumuamua was found when it was going away from Earth.

To prevent space rock hitting Earth we must push it about 10 000 km. If we do it a year before impact, we need speed 10 000 km/year = 1.14 km/h. Ten years before 0.114 km/h would be enough. So time is very important.

Nuclear bomb is most effective and easy to understand. Gentler and cleaner methods should be used, if there is time. For very complex and very important task I would send manned mission, because if something fails they can improvise. Problem is that chemical energy is not enough to match speed with incoming object. BFS might be able to visit asteroid given enough time, but not comets or interstellar objects. In near future we must use unmanned probes.

- First option is to explode weapon near the comet. Heat would evaporate material pushing comet to opposite direction.
- If this is not enough, explode it under the surface. Some nuclear missiles are designed to do that (to destroy enemy bunkers). This ejects material and creates a crater. Crater works like nozzle of a rocket engine.
- Comet/asteroid could break into pieces. If those pieces are on collision course with Earth, situation is much worse that it was. In this case next bombs must be exploded inside of debris cloud forcing it to disperse faster.

We need:
1) Several large telescopes to find incoming objects.
2) NASA is planning space station with ion drive. This is first step towards being able to travel far away to deflect large meteors.
3) Testing this would be useful. Perhaps we have to test less powerful methods and hope really big ones don't come soon.

After watching the TESS video, I think a sky scanning telescope like TESS specifically designed to look for incoming objects would be ideal. Whatever it is would need to watch in a complete sphere.
 
But that one was debunked, even in the article you quoted...
Agreed, that “meteorite death” is questionable.

There is no compelling evidence I know of that any human has ever been killed by a meteorite, but of course we can’t know for sure. However, it doesn’t matter. I think we can all agree that meteorites pose a serious threat to humanity and that a real effort should be made to develop a useful detection system and a way to prevent impacts. But that is going to be extremely difficult. It would be foolish to not attempt to make human life multiplanetary given that the technology to do so appears to be within our grasp.

I suggest we try to get this thread back on topic, which is discussing how Elon hopes the FH launch will inspire a new generation of low cost launch vehicles, and all the benefits that will bring.
 
If the answer is not really, why would anyone invest massively now in a project that has little underlying support as to effectiveness vs waiting until there was a good solution?

That’s exactly the conundrum for the industry. There’s definitely a market, but it’s a massive uphill slog to raise the technology to a sufficient level in order to secure financing for a viable solution. The intersection of necessary launch surviveability, on-orbit performance, and a green-lightable risk/reward ratio for underwriters is really really hard to find right now.

Spacex has a MASSIVE advantage because they don’t have revenue targets, or at least like the public space companies do. They have a guy that [so to speak] doesn't give a *sugar* how much money he spends on development and doesn't care when returns might land.