MYLR take delivery in Dec 2022 or wait it out for HD radar in 2023? Don’t ’NEED’ the car but won’t qualify for Federal EV credits either.

[ss——]

VIN got assigned yesterday for 2023 MYLR. $3750 credit and 10k supercharger miles being offered.
Should I wait it out for the new hd radar potentially being added in Jan/Feb 2023?
I know .. there is always something you can wait for.... it just feels like an HD radar would be a big one given the copious amounts of phantom braking and autosteer panicking out of nowhere that I have experienced personally on teslas (when renting - Turo, others) even on base autopilot and traffic aware cruise control.

The discount in Dec 2022 is nice and I will not qualify for federal credits in 2023 or beyond either. That said, I do not absolutely ‘need’ the car though. Drive pretty less too (8k miles a year).

Will there be a hd radar retro fit option on model Y if the radar does get added in 2023? how much will that cost if so?

What are the chances that with the EV federal credit being a thing, the market becomes more competitive and Tesla makes the $3750 discount ‘permanent’ in 2023?

Thoughts from this group?
Given all this, should I take the discount and go for it or cancel the order, wait it out?

 

[qdeathstar]

What makes you think the radar will be installed that quickly?

If you are buying fsd and the hd radar is needed for it, they will probably install the radar for free, that’s what they have done in the last with the fsd computer for instance.

If you rent fsd you might have to pay for the upgrade but how are we supposed to know what they will charge?

If you aren’t planning on buying/renting fsd the cameras work fine for TACC and lane keeping.

 

[240vPlug]

buy now. you get $3,750 + 10,000 free supercharger miles (must be used within 2 years). Even if you did qualify for the credit I am pretty sure Tesla will not qualify for the full 7500 due to battery materials sourcing requirements.

 

[ss——]

buy now. you get $3,750 + 10,000 free supercharger miles (must be used within 2 years). Even if you did qualify for the credit I am pretty sure Tesla will not qualify for the full 7500 due to battery materials sourcing requirements.

I personally will not because of the stringent income requirements for the EV tax credit in 2023.
If Tesla won’t qualify and many others do, would that not put pressure on Tesla to discount their cars? You combine that with high interest rates and recession concerns, wouldn’t that mean Tesla(the product) is a better buy in 2023? Though if everyone is doing this calculus, the dip in demand jn Dec 2022 will show up as jncreased demand in 2023 I guess .

This aside, is it worth waiting to see what happens to the hd radar or do we think getting the car now is better because the hd radar won’t help much even if it come to MODEL Y? And what do we think retrofits would be possible?

If phantom braking etc. are an issue then a high def radar should help even for basic autopilot/ autosteer, don’t you think?

 

[nate704]

If you need a car now, buy one, if you don't need one don't buy it. If you want one now, go buy it. Guess what, if you buy a car today, the next big/better thing will come out tomorrow.

 

[Kokukenji]

Echoing nate704's comment. If you don't need a car now, wait it out and see if whatever features becomes available on the next revision will push you over to buy it then.

The incentives that is happening right now is pretty nice and honestly myself and a lot of Nov delivery folks are probably a bit jaded, lmao.

 

[Happy Hippo]

Echoing nate704's comment. If you don't need a car now, wait it out and see if whatever features becomes available on the next revision will push you over to buy it then.

The incentives that is happening right now is pretty nice and honestly myself and a lot of Nov delivery folks are probably a bit jaded, lmao.

I think January will not be a great month if they only qualify for half the credit. Lets say they qualify for half the credit, people are still going to still wait for the HD4 or the radar knowing that it does not make sense to take delivery knowing that in December they gave both half the credit and free SC miles. They would need to sweeten the deal for people in January. What do you think?
On the flip side if they qualify for the full credit, do you think they will still sweeten the deal?

 

[uicandrew]

If you purchased before the last price jump, get it now. The prices only go up…… some people who are bitter about not getting the December credit when they took delivery in November also ordered a while back, meaning they locked in the lower price. (Exception being the performance models, probably)

 

[ss——]

On the flip side if they qualify for the full credit, do you think they will still sweeten the deal?

likely not. This would mean keeping prices where they are.

If you purchased before the last price jump, get it now.

No, placed order in Aug 2022.

Lets say they qualify for half the credit, people are still going to still wait for the HD4 or the radar knowing that it does not make sense to take delivery knowing that in December they gave both half the credit and free SC miles.

I agree with the wait-for-the-radar argument for January 2023 especially if a consumer is getting the same discount now vs later, no matter how much discount it is in absolute terms. Because January 15 is when this all supposedly comes out, it will not change much for Tesla if monthly numbers are all that matters and if they can handle a peak in the second half of January. I suspect a huge lull in deliveries for the first two weeks of January. That might cause them to react and offer discounts later in Jan or Feb depending on their ability to absorb a spike, to salvage the Q1 delivery numbers. However since quarterly numbers hold the most weight, there is enough time between Jan 15 and March 31 to allow them to not play with pricing, hold the price stable with no discounts and just prepare for a slow first 2-3 weeks in January and a busy Feb and March.

If the radar bug had not struck me, I would have bought the car now, given that I will not qualify for any federal discount.
I guess if you want certainty then you cannot have leverage to take advantage of the market. Honestly since tesla has already leaked SO MUCH about some radar, they should just come clean and tell us what the plan is. If Tesla were to just announce that they will do a retrofit for all deliveries done in Dec 2022 or Q4 2022, they can easily drive up demand especially for folks that are not waiting for the federal EV tax credit next year. That segment may not be big enough though otherwise they would not have offered the discount to make up for the federal benefit. They clearly see EV credit holdout group as the primary reason for the dip in demand and cancellation, obviously.

 

[Kokukenji]

I doubt they will retrofit that many cars, the amount of cost associated with all of that. Maybe if you opt into FSD then you are covered for a retrofit as the cost for FSD can cover for the retrofit. Although unsure how that works if you just subscribe for 1 month to get the retrofit, lol.

Regarding announcing anything now, I doubt that's the move as that will not be good for shareholders as people will potentially continue to hold out until further notice and that won't help their numbers. Given the double incentives they are throwing for Dec deliveries, they are prioritizing that vs. customer service.

At least that's how I am seeing it and I'm a nobody so take my comments with a huge grain of salt.

 

[avs007]

I doubt they will retrofit that many cars, the amount of cost associated with all of that. Maybe if you opt into FSD then you are covered for a retrofit as the cost for FSD can cover for the retrofit. Although unsure how that works if you just subscribe for 1 month to get the retrofit, lol.

From what I've seen in the past, they would only retrofit for free if you bought FSD up front. If you want to subscribe, they wouldn't let you subscript until you paid out of pocket to upgrade the required hardware first.

 

[Kokukenji]

From what I've seen in the past, they would only retrofit for free if you bought FSD up front. If you want to subscribe, they wouldn't let you subscript until you paid out of pocket to upgrade the required hardware first.

Makes sense and I can see them doing that, folding in that FSD cost to pay for the retrofit.

 

[ss——]

if I have to pay for the retrofit myself, how much do you expect that to cost? Do we have any info on this from cases like this in the past? I thought I heard somewhere that upgrading the cameras was like a $1500 job, the full computer was $2500 maybe? I have no first hand info here.

 

[M3coast2coast]

My thoughts also - I want to buy now, sweet deal with the discount etc. I do think there will be a big announcement for HD radar or similar USS replacement in Jan/Feb. Maybe even a price drop. Its all speculation either way, which is rough for this kind of cost.

 

[Evpowerdan]

VIN got assigned yesterday for 2023 MYLR. $3750 credit and 10k supercharger miles being offered.
Should I wait it out for the new hd radar potentially being added in Jan/Feb 2023?
I know .. there is always something you can wait for.... it just feels like an HD radar would be a big one given the copious amounts of phantom braking and autosteer panicking out of nowhere that I have experienced personally on teslas (when renting - Turo, others) even on base autopilot and traffic aware cruise control.

The discount in Dec 2022 is nice and I will not qualify for federal credits in 2023 or beyond either. That said, I do not absolutely ‘need’ the car though. Drive pretty less too (8k miles a year).

Will there be a hd radar retro fit option on model Y if the radar does get added in 2023? how much will that cost if so?

What are the chances that with the EV federal credit being a thing, the market becomes more competitive and Tesla makes the $3750 discount ‘permanent’ in 2023?

Thoughts from this group?
Given all this, should I take the discount and go for it or cancel the order, wait it out?

Phantom braking happens in a lot of other high end mfgs. One of my other vehicles a 21 RDX Aspec AWD does phantom braking a lot. Not a big deal, as I am an active driver and just cancel the system or hit the gas pedal and it disengages. Positive side is that Tesla does a lot of OTA UPDATES (SOTA AND FOTA) that they will make better with more data and time - that’s not the fact with 95% of the other mfgs out there now. They system it ships with is what you are stuck with.

Tax breaks and etc - all up in the air And the fed postpones the IRA EV criteria till March of 23 now. Tesla offering a cash discount and free supercharging miles - that’s a great incentive.

 

[Mike7564]

If you purchased before the last price jump, get it now. The prices only go up…… some

Actually prices don’t always go up. Already have cut prices in China. And in the US prices have been cut before (just not recently).
Sure they’ll fight it and once the tax credit kicks in (ie fed eating the discount cost) they’ll ride that for a while and sell at normal price. But with slowing demand, more competition, higher borrowing costs, and folks beginning to expect better hardware in this price range, fully expect price erosion over the next year or two.

people who are bitter about not getting the December credit when they took delivery in November also ordered a while back, meaning they locked in the lower price. (Exception being the performance models, probably)

 

[BikerPeaBody]

thought tesla said they giving $7,000 discount from dec 21 to 31st no?

 

[avs007]

thought tesla said they giving $7,000 discount from dec 21 to 31st no?

$7500, yes. It's applied as a credit, so I guess technically it wouldn't count as a price cut, because the price is technically still the same. It's basically just an instant rebate. So I don't think it would count with those states that have specific MSRP caps, becuase the MSRP isn't lowered.

 

[kk60302]

I personally will not because of the stringent income requirements for the EV tax credit in 2023.
If Tesla won’t qualify and many others do, would that not put pressure on Tesla to discount their cars? You combine that with high interest rates and recession concerns, wouldn’t that mean Tesla(the product) is a better buy in 2023? Though if everyone is doing this calculus, the dip in demand jn Dec 2022 will show up as jncreased demand in 2023 I guess .

This aside, is it worth waiting to see what happens to the hd radar or do we think getting the car now is better because the hd radar won’t help much even if it come to MODEL Y? And what do we think retrofits would be possible?

If phantom braking etc. are an issue then a high def radar should help even for basic autopilot/ autosteer, don’t you think?

So I just bought a 2023 Model 3 Long Range with Enhanced Auto Pilot for 6K . The auto steer within lane does not work consistently as it veers of the lane and emits an alert instead of steering it back. I took it to the dealer ..he gave the once over the car and said the removal of ultrasonic radar was the cause of it and that ‘improvements to the vision sensor should be coming soon to address it . I called his bluff and told him about the HD Radar coming to new vehicles in mid Jan 2023 and he said that he was not aware of it …sheesh . All he said was towing the corporate line that improvements should be coming soon. Oh another thing ..I don’t have the summon feature/reverse summon and he attributed that to the ultrasonic radar . I sure hope that the car would be retrofitted with HD radar to have the Enhanced Auto pilot features work as advertised…

 

[Mike7564]

So I just bought a 2023 Model 3 Long Range with Enhanced Auto Pilot for 6K . The auto steer within lane does not work consistently as it veers off the lane and emits an alert instead of steering it back. I took it to the dealer ..he gave the once over the car and said the removal of ultrasonic radar was the cause of it and that ‘improvements to the vision sensor should be coming soon to address it . I called his bluff and told him about the HD Radar coming to new vehicles in mid Jan 2023 and he said that he was not aware of it …sheesh . All he said was towing the corporate line that improvements should be coming soon. Oh another thing ..I don’t have the summon feature/reverse summon and he attributed that to the ultrasonic radar . I sure hope that the car would be retrofitted with HD radar to have the Enhanced Auto pilot features work as advertised…

I’m not a technical expert but I cannot see how USS would help keep the car in its lane. Unless Tesla claims the USS bounce off the paint on the road. LOL.

Other features, like summon, etc for EAP are non-functional at this time and pending updates to Vision in “the future”. Maybe they should also take your 6k in “the future” too.