This of course applies to my driving style and the roads I've driven on, but I've found that the car is somewhat pessimistic (meaning that it will under-predict the arrival SOC, which is a good thing), so if the car says you will arrive with 10%, it will probably be more like 15-20%.
I've found ABRP to be accurate to within 2-3%. I have no hesitation using 10% arrival SOC target on ABRP and trusting it. I usually bring it up on the car's browser, not only to get live updates on my trip progress, but because it puts all kinds of great information front and center, including live stall utilization at your next charging stop.
Regardless of whether you use ABRP or not, you will put yourself at ease by using the car's Trip Energy Graph. That way you can monitor how you are doing versus the car's prediction. Above the line and you are doing well. Below the line, and you may need to adjust your driving style, or perhaps select a closer Supercharger.
The Detailed display is ABRP gives you the same type of graph in a more compact screen that includes much more helpful information:
The actual workflow I use to properly pre-condition the battery is to always just navigate directly to the next Supercharger in the car's nav. If you want to use the car's nav completely, go ahead and plan the trip with it, but if it tries to suggest a Supercharger you don't want to go to, cancel the nav and navigate directly to that Supercharger. Then, once you are there and plugged in, go ahead and re-plan to your destination. But don't let the car override your wishes! Also, make sure you navigate to "such and such Supercharger" and not just the address of the Supercharger. When I use the "share" facility of ABRP to send the charging stop to the car, it only sends the address, and the car doesn't pre-condition the battery.