I meant volume production of customer dual motor cars, rather than just a few initial cars that are seemingly going to be test drive vehicles.
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Near-future quarterly financial projections
- Thread starter luvb2b
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That's helpful; thank you for clarifying. How do you define "volume" in the case of P3D?
What specifically do you believe will be the bottleneck to ramping P3D production to volume. IIRC there was a discussion on this in General by a few members who seem experienced in manufacturing, and my understanding is that P3D and LR+PUP production is more than 90% similar.
Also, I noticed that you added "customer," which may be a similar point previously raised by another member: that the first P3D may be a test vehicle, but my take is that the vehicle, photo of which Elon shared yesterday, is for customer delivery: Elon Musk on Twitter
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I don't have any special expertise, but I had previously imagined that they would install the additional equipment required after reaching the 5k/week milestone, meaning that the dual motor ramp wouldn't hit meaningful volume until a few weeks into Q3, whereas now I think that meaningful volume could start from early in the quarter.
I noticed that tweet too, so perhaps it is a customer car. I had been thinking back to Musk's earlier comments on wanting to make P3D test drive cars available in stores (I think he said before the end of the quarter), so I had assumed that they were just focusing on low volume for that at the moment before ramping closer to Q3...but maybe they are going straight to customer production after all.
I noticed that tweet too, so perhaps it is a customer car. I had been thinking back to Musk's earlier comments on wanting to make P3D test drive cars available in stores (I think he said before the end of the quarter), so I had assumed that they were just focusing on low volume for that at the moment before ramping closer to Q3...but maybe they are going straight to customer production after all.
OK. While I simply don't believe that the author of that photo is reliable, it is possible that he is telling the truth. If so, it indicates that the tent is being used for "End of Line" (which was mentioned as a point needing speedup) and the major elements of GA3 and GA4 are indoors. This would fit with the email Musk sent out.
Yes. My impression is most "plant and equipment" is calendar based rather units of production based: automobile tooling is the most often cited exception. Manufacturing (aka factory) overheads is a relatively fixed component of COGS.
Factory overhead
the skabooska guy? He has been driving by the factory regularly and posting videos
my mind is blown that the same people who say musk is just 'a bit optimistic' are so quick to discredit people with actual video/pic evidence as 'unreliable'
how those solar roofs doing these days?
i wouldn't be so hasty to believe anything posted - from either side.
i have been down that public road that leads to the location of the "tent". it terminates into a private development, and to get as close as he did in those photos, you would most likely have to do some trespassing on foot. i didn't see any fence lines so it could be he got a nice telephoto lens up to the fence, but either way would have involved some trespassing in the dark. maybe he took that photo on saturday night, or maybe he needs the stock to move his way.
separately, after the restart of the line he was out posting how full the factory lot was etc. and how many cars were being produced.
so i went there for myself. i saw that the south inventory lot was somewhat empty, the number of car carriers coming and going was fairly dramatic. he claims to have sat there and counted for a few hours one day, but he probably just missed the important idea that if a lot of trucks come and go the lot never would get very full because delivery flow had improved.
ever listen to montana sk*tic? this guy claims to be managing a billion dollar portfolio and tries to pass himself off as someone of above average intelligence. most of the stuff he says is either fluff or outright lies. his supposed billion dollar portfolio is "wisely" invested in longer dated municipal bonds, which are "much safer" than tesla. he has never revealed his true identity so apparently someone on twitter has started searching for him:
Montana Sk*tic Dossier (@SkepticMontana) | Twitter
i know montana sk*tic tells outright lies, that's not the interesting part. i'm not sure if @SkepticMontana does or doesn't.
but either way i don't forget that disruption of auto, oil, power generation, and labor is a lot of large special interests. any of which could spend 50-100k to hire some moron to spread garbage. so be careful what you believe.
i have been down that public road that leads to the location of the "tent". it terminates into a private development, and to get as close as he did in those photos, you would most likely have to do some trespassing on foot. i didn't see any fence lines so it could be he got a nice telephoto lens up to the fence, but either way would have involved some trespassing in the dark. maybe he took that photo on saturday night, or maybe he needs the stock to move his way.
separately, after the restart of the line he was out posting how full the factory lot was etc. and how many cars were being produced.
so i went there for myself. i saw that the south inventory lot was somewhat empty, the number of car carriers coming and going was fairly dramatic. he claims to have sat there and counted for a few hours one day, but he probably just missed the important idea that if a lot of trucks come and go the lot never would get very full because delivery flow had improved.
ever listen to montana sk*tic? this guy claims to be managing a billion dollar portfolio and tries to pass himself off as someone of above average intelligence. most of the stuff he says is either fluff or outright lies. his supposed billion dollar portfolio is "wisely" invested in longer dated municipal bonds, which are "much safer" than tesla. he has never revealed his true identity so apparently someone on twitter has started searching for him:
Montana Sk*tic Dossier (@SkepticMontana) | Twitter
i know montana sk*tic tells outright lies, that's not the interesting part. i'm not sure if @SkepticMontana does or doesn't.
but either way i don't forget that disruption of auto, oil, power generation, and labor is a lot of large special interests. any of which could spend 50-100k to hire some moron to spread garbage. so be careful what you believe.
I think it should be a pretty big red flag when the thesis of the bulls becomes dependent on doxxing the critics.
Also Montana Skeptic does a lot of research and provides a lot of support to his work. His work on the Buffalo plant and the ever amended agreement with the state of NY is amazing research
Also Montana Skeptic does a lot of research and provides a lot of support to his work. His work on the Buffalo plant and the ever amended agreement with the state of NY is amazing research
just as it should be a big green flag when the primary thesis of the most prominent short (chanos) is wrong.
c'mon man, those cliches are good for novices but no good for us.
montana sk*tics research is garbage. when you look back at this episode, one good question will be why put so much capital at risk whilst relying on the "work" of others.
the only sensible thing if you have a lot at risk is to do your own work.
c'mon man, those cliches are good for novices but no good for us.
montana sk*tics research is garbage. when you look back at this episode, one good question will be why put so much capital at risk whilst relying on the "work" of others.
the only sensible thing if you have a lot at risk is to do your own work.
Is it bullish that Tesla is deeding over its factor to meet ABL obligations? (note: i don't know what was deeded over, but assume it is the factory, not sure how to check this)
TempWorker on Twitter
TempWorker on Twitter
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Uh, that's a screenshot of a database search, you didn't even bother clicking to see what those deeds are for.
same as yours, that opex scales with revenue and so higher revenue always = higher losses.
it hasn't yet been proven wrong, i'm saying it is wrong (from my view and that of many bulls).
my point is simply i can point to this or that and say well this is a red flag and this is a green flag and really at the end of all of those, who cares? i can't worry about some crazy short any more than i can worry about some overzealous bull.
i can't trade or invest based on some "green" or "red" flag, and this stock has many of each as do most stocks.
i need to know i've got favorable reward-to-risk to make a big *dog* pile of money. and for that i need my own solid work. which is what i am encouraging you to do, rather than relying on the various research tidbits of others.
my point is simply i can point to this or that and say well this is a red flag and this is a green flag and really at the end of all of those, who cares? i can't worry about some crazy short any more than i can worry about some overzealous bull.
i can't trade or invest based on some "green" or "red" flag, and this stock has many of each as do most stocks.
i need to know i've got favorable reward-to-risk to make a big *dog* pile of money. and for that i need my own solid work. which is what i am encouraging you to do, rather than relying on the various research tidbits of others.
Leveraging the work of others to form an opinion is what research is, I mean technically the auditors did the work, not me when i look at a 10-k (if you want to be super technical, Tesla Accounting team prepares the 10-k and audit attests to being free of material misstatement). I just fundamentally disagree with you that 'visiting the factory' is somehow valuable or "real" research vs gathering information from the internet, kind of feels outdated honestly (visit the stores makes more sense than the factory).
I mean did you visit factories of Ford and GM? Is tesla way better? Is building in tents the new cutting edge game?
I mean did you visit factories of Ford and GM? Is tesla way better? Is building in tents the new cutting edge game?
you think auditors do any real work? pllleeeaassseee....
let's just say there are plenty of audited financials i have seen which i have never believed.
leveraging the work of others can be useful, but when so much work on both sides is tainted... how?
the nice thing about the capital markets vs. debate team is that those who are routinely wrong are slowly cleaned out by those with superior edges.
for both of us, unfortunately this won't be clear until much later.
let's just say there are plenty of audited financials i have seen which i have never believed.
leveraging the work of others can be useful, but when so much work on both sides is tainted... how?
the nice thing about the capital markets vs. debate team is that those who are routinely wrong are slowly cleaned out by those with superior edges.
for both of us, unfortunately this won't be clear until much later.
I agree with everything except the part about auditors not doing any real work, but i think u mostly meant that in jest
to be perfectly clear: there are many auditors that do poor work, so many that i don't trust audited financials that don't make sense in a few other ways.
