Near-future quarterly financial projections

[Knightshade]

They have a list of milestones when they will have certain % in deferred revenue. Going from beta to no longer beta likely happened as they thought that they had accomplished some goals which likely correspond to the goals for recognising deferred revenue.

What functionality, specifically, was delivered by removing the beta tag?

Because that's all that matters here-- revenue is deferred when a customer pays for things and you have not delivered them.

You have to deliver something specific to recognize the revenue.

So they CAN recognize deferred revenue in Q1 from all non-USS FSD buyers who they have now delivered self-parking to that previously was a promised but undelivered feature.

But that has nothing to do with removing the word beta from the name of anything.

Ditto being able to (if they deliver it) recognize a bit more (from that same non-USS group) if they deliver summon finally in Q2.

One interesting bit--- REVERSE summon (or banish as Elon recently called it)--- this was not a promised feature at all for post 3/19 buyers... it KIND of was for pre 3/19 ones-- so I suppose they might try and recognize a fraction of revenue if/when THAT is delivered....but it'd be TINY because

A) The pool of those people is tiny- likely under 50k
B) Those people only paid ~3k for FSD
C) The BULK of deferred revenue for that small group would still need to be reserved for the primary undelivered promise to them- L4 (or better) self driving



That said- The Accountants remarks on the subscription are exactly right AFAIK- that is never deferred because you're only signing up to pay X dollars for "whatever FSD is right now" rather than a bundle of specific promised features.... (otherwise it'd be a NIGHTMARE accounting for all the folks between USS removal and today who had a subscription that are now "owed" self parking and whatever even if the subscription is gone)

 

[DarkandStormy]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1782489942649663793

This one is a head scratcher.

 

[Knightshade]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1782489942649663793

This one is a head scratcher.

On the bright side, his 69-chart threads tend to end up hilariously wrong in their predictions.

On the dark side, they usually end up that way to the negative side, not the positive one.

 

[heltok]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1782438922703741164

 

[DarkandStormy]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1782534436866634117

 

[Thekiwi]

Simple first run at earnings:

(Have not broken out leasing revenue)

View attachment 1035323

Well my original estimate (with the incorrect energy number) proved to be a penny off in GAAP EPS.

I should have refused to correct it

 

[Knightshade]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1782534436866634117

Can we officially stop citing James Stephenson for... anything?

Troy, OTOH, was within 1 penny for non-GAAP EPS.

 

[heltok]

So I was wrong about FSD revenue recognition due to sFSD no longer being beta. But seems that Autopark released some revenue:

I am gonna guess ASS will recognize some more revenue in Q2.

 

[Knightshade]

So I was wrong about FSD revenue recognition due to sFSD no longer being beta. But seems that Autopark released some revenue:
View attachment 1041169

I am gonna guess ASS will recognize some more revenue in Q2.

Yes.

Literally what I told you (and everyone) multiple times previously, including as recently as last week, 8 posts ago, in this very thread.

 

[DarkandStormy]

So I was wrong about FSD revenue recognition due to sFSD no longer being beta. But seems that Autopark released some revenue:
View attachment 1041169

I am gonna guess ASS will recognize some more revenue in Q2.

Autopark works?

 

[DarkandStormy]

Can we officially stop citing James Stephenson for... anything?

Troy, OTOH, was within 1 penny for non-GAAP EPS.

Do you think James will apply for the now-open head of IR position?

 

[Knightshade]

Autopark works?

Has on my USS car for years

It was released for non-USS cars in Q1 this year and by all reports works very well...arguably even better since you can select from a variety of spots instead of just a single one behind you.

 

[The Accountant]

I'm not an accountant, but I am under the impression that the charge is a short term cost and a long term savings. All the costs will be in Q2, but the savings will take a few quarters to even out.

I calculate that Tesla has about $5B in personnel costs each qtr and thus a 10% cut should yield $500m in savings per quarter.
The restructuring charge will be $350m, so perhaps this is a wash for Q2 depending on when people exit.

 

[Doggydogworld]

I calculate that Tesla has about $5B in personnel costs each qtr and thus a 10% cut should yield $500m in savings per quarter.
The restructuring charge will be $350m, so perhaps this is a wash for Q2 depending on when people exit.

View attachment 1042526

In the earnings call they said "The savings generated are expected to be well in excess of $1.1 billion on an annual basis". Despite the odd phrasing, I interpret this to mean a bit less than 300m/quarter. The savings should be a bit less in Q2 since the cuts didn't all happen on Day 1, but it depends on how they account for some of the employee costs.

 

[AudubonB]

I calculate that Tesla has about $5B in personnel costs each qtr and thus a 10% cut should yield $500m in savings per quarter.
The restructuring charge will be $350m, so perhaps this is a wash for Q2 depending on when people exit.

View attachment 1042526

You are assuming that, for example if the dropped headcount of 500 in the SpC team statement is true, at least some fraction will not be replaced?

 

[MC3OZ]

I calculate that Tesla has about $5B in personnel costs each qtr and thus a 10% cut should yield $500m in savings per quarter.
The restructuring charge will be $350m, so perhaps this is a wash for Q2 depending on when people exit.

View attachment 1042526

What we don't know at this stage is if more of that 10% cut was for staff positions with higher salaries:-

• Management
• Engineers
• IT

Seems to me that factory production at most factories is largely unaffected, only factory staff for the new compact car in Austin were laid off.

So I think it is safe to say it if doesn't end up being 10% of the headcount, it is still 10% of personnel costs.