The Accountant
Active Member
Yes - that's correct. My forecast shows GAAP profits when excluding Reg Credits..... which is impressive as Q1 is seasonally the weakest Qtr of the year.
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Near-future quarterly financial projections
- Thread starter luvb2b
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Yes - that's correct. My forecast shows GAAP profits when excluding Reg Credits..... which is impressive as Q1 is seasonally the weakest Qtr of the year.
Did model 3 have a 4 yr warranty when it started deliveries in mid-2017? or was it longer? Interested to know, as this would mean as we progress towards the end of year we will start to see model 3 warranty periods ending and potentially services revenue increase as we enter 2022 and the number of out of warranty repairs significantly starts to increase.
From a quick search for 2017 Model 3 warranty... not sure if it changed during the year or not
Warranty: 4 yr/50,000 mi basic, 8 yr/100,000 mi powertrain
Doggydogworld
Active Member
They didn't sell many 3s until mid-2018 when they erected the tent and went to batch manufacturing. Through Q2 2018 they sold <30k total. If those average $250/quarter that's ~7.5m in Q3 of 2022, about 1% of Services & Other revenue. And $250/quarter is probably way too high as that significantly exceeds typical 4 year old ICE service costs.
Earnings have already exceeded regulatory credits (q3 or q4?) unless you use TSLAQ’s logic of arbitrarily removing profits, while leaving in the income tax paid on those profits that are removed.
The Accountant
Active Member
Just saw this on Twitter - Fact Set has 168k for deliveries:
dc_h
Active Member
I don’t know if Fact Set or Troy will be correct. I did just buy a Y Long Range and will not get it until April 1st. The sales center said they hit regional goals last week and just icing on the cake now. That doesn’t mean anything about China or ROW, but it does sound like sales are better in the USA than Fact Set or my Patreon is saying. I think Y and some S refresh will tip us over 170.
dc_h
Active Member
@The Accountant
Any thoughts on SBC this quarter? Will it be the same 600 million +, or should it decline?
Any thoughts on SBC this quarter? Will it be the same 600 million +, or should it decline?
asburgers
Sell order in at $8008.5
Fact Set and Troy aren't far apart - his updated numbers are on twitter if you search (should just pay the $5/month though).
I think it's going to be a tough quarter for him to predict so I expect that he'll be off a little more than usual.
Near-future quarterly financial projections
(Johnny English... is Mr. Bean. Is that you sir? You never know in this place.) Unfortunately not. I am nowhere near as talented as Rowan Atkinson :)
teslamotorsclub.com
Decline of ~200M
The Accountant
Active Member
Q1 2021 Scenarios
Below I have outlined Q1 P&L scenarios for deliveries of 160k, 165k, 170k, 175k and 180k.
In all scenarios, the results look good. The only numbers that change with each scenario are Auto Revenues, Cost of Revenues and Income Taxes.
The main risks to these numbers would be lower Reg Credits (I'm estimating $420m) and higher Stock Compensation (estimating $433m).
Below I have outlined Q1 P&L scenarios for deliveries of 160k, 165k, 170k, 175k and 180k.
In all scenarios, the results look good. The only numbers that change with each scenario are Auto Revenues, Cost of Revenues and Income Taxes.
The main risks to these numbers would be lower Reg Credits (I'm estimating $420m) and higher Stock Compensation (estimating $433m).
It looks like every 5K additional cars is about another $0.04 EPS. Does this imply their GAAP break even for deliveries is about 122.5K?
asburgers
Sell order in at $8008.5
Tesla, Inc. (TSLA) Analyst Ratings, Estimates & Forecasts - Yahoo Finance
See Tesla, Inc. (TSLA) stock analyst estimates, including earnings and revenue, EPS, upgrades and downgrades.
finance.yahoo.com
Yahoo finance is showing the average EPS estimate is at 0.74.
The Accountant
Active Member
Yes - that's about right.
The Accountant
Active Member
Q1 Regulatory Credits
I have forecasted $420m in Regulatory Credits for Q1 based on very little information. My assumption is that Credits will be somewhat consistent with 2020.
Here is a chart that shows the status of the European Commission targets as of January 2021. As you can see, the FCA-Tesla-Honda pool group is dead last with a shortfall of 14% to target....meaning that FCA and Honda need all of Tesla's credits.
theicct.org
I have forecasted $420m in Regulatory Credits for Q1 based on very little information. My assumption is that Credits will be somewhat consistent with 2020.
Here is a chart that shows the status of the European Commission targets as of January 2021. As you can see, the FCA-Tesla-Honda pool group is dead last with a shortfall of 14% to target....meaning that FCA and Honda need all of Tesla's credits.
Market monitor: European passenger car registrations, January 2021 - International Council on Clean Transportation
Snapshot of the conventional and electric vehicle market in the European Union.
theicct.org
How about the BTC purchase? Wouldn't it add to other income as it has appreciated substantially from Tesla's probable purchase cost? Some sort of mark to market?Q1 Regulatory Credits
I have forecasted $420m in Regulatory Credits for Q1 based on very little information. My assumption is that Credits will be somewhat consistent with 2020.
Here is a chart that shows the status of the European Commission targets as of January 2021. As you can see, the FCA-Tesla-Honda pool group is dead last with a shortfall of 14% to target....meaning that FCA and Honda need all of Tesla's credits.
Market monitor: European passenger car registrations, January 2021 - International Council on Clean Transportation
Snapshot of the conventional and electric vehicle market in the European Union.
View attachment 649311
No, as has been covered many times they can't recognize an increase in BTC value unless they sell it. (However, they have to recognize a loss if the value goes down even if they don't sell it.)
When are technically vehicles counted towards produced, I am assuming it's not by when they leave the factory, perhaps after some level of quality check and internal certification?
I believe, in China, right after Dec-31 passed, after midnight several trucks fully loaded with Model-Ys were seen leaving the Shanghai factory. Is my seeming recollection of this correct? If yes, do estimates you guys came across factor these in?
At that time, I was wondering if that was deliberate to cushion Q1-2021.
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Why not just sell and rebuy? Maybe it would be even possible to this transaction on a private exchange.
