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It’s a complete crapshoot. As far as anyone has been able to tell there is no way to predict when the latest update will reach a specific group of cars. It could be days or it could be weeks. Elon did say in a tweet not too long ago that they will add in the ability to request the latest update from your car but until that functionality comes along you must bow to the whims of the OTA gods.
 
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You can also ask at a Service Center to have them push it. They did it for me at delivery. There wasn't time to install it that day since I had a long drive ahead of me. I actually never did the update until a few days ago and I received the very latest version when I did. But I haven't had the opportunity to test the auto-dimming yet.
 
Unless it's been months and months, the SC's have enough to do without everyone calling for an update... And if you think your car is stuck and not getting updates (many of S and X's are on 10.4 or earlier still, when 'current' is 18, so 8 weeks is normal!), I'd call the Support line, not your Service Center, they can check your car and make sure it's not in some wedged state (which has been known to happen).

We are all waiting for OTA on demand, for sure! :D

As for delivery, it should have the current software, that was weird.
 
just found this: View my Tesla Model S

looks like as of today (11-May) model 3 general population is getting 2018.10 version. those of us on 2018.16 have no hope to get 2018.18 :)
I don’t think that is correct. That info is for Model S firmware, not Model 3. According to the firmware tracker the last Model 3 update in widespread release is 2018.14.13 (which is what I have). It looks like distribution has stopped on 2018.16 and 2018.18, or they were never intended for wide distribution.
Tesla Firmware Upgrade Tracker Web App

If you’re not contributing to this crowdsourced site, please do so.
 
One of the problems for ev-fw for the 3 is that there are only a few (very few) people contributing data; yes, please add your voices (cars) to the list for that! Even if the software goes consolidated, and the same versions are in all the cars (as happens and then unhappens), we still need enough 3's to tell what is going on there. :D
 
One issue is that once someone learns about a new release, they hurry over to post it on these forums.

Then everyone wants it. Car was working great before, but of course they want it better, and right now.

They go bug the service centers to get it installed in their cars...right now. Next post is from someone complaining that the service centers are to busy to get the cars out in an efficient manner.

Tesla has a master plan as to how they most efficiently can roll out these free updates. Owners are not privy to all the details, but of course want the latest and greatest ASAP.

Sometimes Tesla will do a slow roll on a new release. Send it to a few people and see how it goes. Sometimes they do not roll it out to everybody, but decide to do a little more work on it prior to full release. Some vehicle configurations may not have an urgent need for some of the code, and of course they can easily wait for the final release that might be even more stable and bug free.

Elon has mentioned that he would like to have a system where owners could request an expedited down load of the latest updates, but nothing has been released yet.

Kinda reminds me of when we were kids on a road trip. We kept bugging Dad to stop for an ice cream or frequent bathroom breaks. He was intent on getting to the campsite before it got dark. He knew he wanted to get the campsite set up and the tents erected when there was still some light...but we were relentless : >)
 
One of the problems for ev-fw for the 3 is that there are only a few (very few) people contributing data; yes, please add your voices (cars) to the list for that! Even if the software goes consolidated, and the same versions are in all the cars (as happens and then unhappens), we still need enough 3's to tell what is going on there. :D

Don't really trust it with my tesla password and haven't found easy way to get a token :(
 
I don’t think that is correct. That info is for Model S firmware, not Model 3. According to the firmware tracker the last Model 3 update in widespread release is 2018.14.13 (which is what I have). It looks like distribution has stopped on 2018.16 and 2018.18, or they were never intended for wide distribution.
Tesla Firmware Upgrade Tracker Web App

If you’re not contributing to this crowdsourced site, please do so.
I got to that page from my model 3 account page.
 
One issue is that once someone learns about a new release, they hurry over to post it on these forums.

Then everyone wants it. Car was working great before, but of course they want it better, and right now.

They go bug the service centers to get it installed in their cars...right now. Next post is from someone complaining that the service centers are to busy to get the cars out in an efficient manner.

Tesla has a master plan as to how they most efficiently can roll out these free updates. Owners are not privy to all the details, but of course want the latest and greatest ASAP.

Sometimes Tesla will do a slow roll on a new release. Send it to a few people and see how it goes. Sometimes they do not roll it out to everybody, but decide to do a little more work on it prior to full release. Some vehicle configurations may not have an urgent need for some of the code, and of course they can easily wait for the final release that might be even more stable and bug free.

Elon has mentioned that he would like to have a system where owners could request an expedited down load of the latest updates, but nothing has been released yet.

Kinda reminds me of when we were kids on a road trip. We kept bugging Dad to stop for an ice cream or frequent bathroom breaks. He was intent on getting to the campsite before it got dark. He knew he wanted to get the campsite set up and the tents erected when there was still some light...but we were relentless : >)
You must be lost. The reason I got the car is for these updates. :)

In seriousness, you are 100% correct.
 
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It looks like distribution has stopped on 2018.16 and 2018.18, or they were never intended for wide distribution.

When you see that some releases have only a few people who have installed them, that usually indicates that those people either just got the car or just had it serviced, and it was updated manually by Tesla to one of those interim builds.

Builds that are distributed OTA are usually a wide release and you'll see that in the lists by the number of cars that got it. 2018.14.13 is a wide release, nearly every Model 3 has it.