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NHTSA Finds Tesla Accident Rate Drops 40% After Autosteer Installed!
- Thread starter EinSV
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- Tesla Inc.
brucet999
Active Member
Lawsuit: NHTSA Ignored Freedom of Information Act Request
QCS wants to know if NHTSA used scientific methods to validate the tests and if the results can be replicated. In addition, the company wants to know if the alleged reduction in crash rates is due to Autosteer itself and if the decreased crash rates are expected to continue.
"The surprising claim by NHTSA of an extraordinary reduction in crash rates associated with the installation of Autosteer must be carefully considered in the context of the Agency's failure to allow public access to the underlying data. Such an important conclusion by the Agency should not be based on data that the government is withholding from researchers who want to examine NHTSA's results." - Quality Control Systems
In March 2017, NHTSA responded to QCS by saying the agency was issuing “an interim response to your FOIA request dated February 24, 2017," and was “extending by ten working days the time period by which the agency must provide a response.”
Further, NHTSA said it needed additional time "to search for and collect the requested records from field facilities or other establishments that are separate from the office processing the request.” Finally, the letter stated that NHTSA expected to provide a response by April 14, 2017.
However, QCS says that communication was the last it heard from NHTSA.
The Quality Control Systems Freedom of Information Act request lawsuit was filed in the U.S. District Court for the District of Columbia - Quality Control Systems Corp. v. U.S. Department of Transportation.
QCS wants to know if NHTSA used scientific methods to validate the tests and if the results can be replicated. In addition, the company wants to know if the alleged reduction in crash rates is due to Autosteer itself and if the decreased crash rates are expected to continue.
"The surprising claim by NHTSA of an extraordinary reduction in crash rates associated with the installation of Autosteer must be carefully considered in the context of the Agency's failure to allow public access to the underlying data. Such an important conclusion by the Agency should not be based on data that the government is withholding from researchers who want to examine NHTSA's results." - Quality Control Systems
In March 2017, NHTSA responded to QCS by saying the agency was issuing “an interim response to your FOIA request dated February 24, 2017," and was “extending by ten working days the time period by which the agency must provide a response.”
Further, NHTSA said it needed additional time "to search for and collect the requested records from field facilities or other establishments that are separate from the office processing the request.” Finally, the letter stated that NHTSA expected to provide a response by April 14, 2017.
However, QCS says that communication was the last it heard from NHTSA.
The Quality Control Systems Freedom of Information Act request lawsuit was filed in the U.S. District Court for the District of Columbia - Quality Control Systems Corp. v. U.S. Department of Transportation.
hockeythug
Active Member
Some private watchdog company. Looks like they go after automotive safety.
QCS: Quality Control Systems Corporation
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SageBrush
REJECT Fascism
Sure, but then the conclusions should have embedded confidence intervals.
I would like to see Tesla randomly choose a set of owners whom did not voluntarily choose to pay for the feature receive free activation. Compare that group to those without the feature.
It just seems to me fairly likely that the drivers who pay for AP tend as a group to not be aggressive drivers and choose to drive close to the speed limit.
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QCS are asking to see the data.
Most importantly what is the sample size used that can justify the conclusion that Autopilot is 40% safer.
It seems that the publication of this finding and its replication across the web is causing Tesla users to overestimate the capabilities and safety of the Tesla Autopilot.
It seems unlikely that this 40% claim can be reliable unless the sample size is in the several thousands.
(of crashes that caused a Tesla airbag deployment)
Most importantly what is the sample size used that can justify the conclusion that Autopilot is 40% safer.
It seems that the publication of this finding and its replication across the web is causing Tesla users to overestimate the capabilities and safety of the Tesla Autopilot.
It seems unlikely that this 40% claim can be reliable unless the sample size is in the several thousands.
(of crashes that caused a Tesla airbag deployment)
SageBrush
REJECT Fascism
There are no doubt thousands of drivers in each group, and you do not need anywhere that number of accidents to exclude randomness to a high probability as the reason for the result.
If the results do not pan out, it is going to be due to selection bias
SageBrush
REJECT Fascism
A hunch, and I hope a little common sense.
Do people routinely set TACC at 90+ mph ? I don't
Do people set TACC and then tailgate ? Weave in and out of traffic ?
That the AP group have strongly self-selected themselves by virtue of paying $5,000 - $6,000 for the privilege is fact, so tread lightly when drawing conclusions from comparisons with a non-similar group.
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NHTSA report
https://static.nhtsa.gov/odi/inv/2016/INCLA-PE16007-7876.PDF
"5.4 Crash rates. ODI analyzed mileage and airbag deployment data supplied by Tesla for all MY 2014 through 2016 Model S and 2016 Model X vehicles equipped with the Autopilot Technology Package, either installed in the vehicle when sold or through an OTA update, to calculate crash rates by miles travelled prior to21 and after Autopilot installation.22 Figure 11 shows the rates calculated by ODI for airbag deployment crashes in the subject Tesla vehicles before and after Autosteer installation. The data show that the Tesla vehicles crash rate dropped by almost 40 percent after Autosteer installation"
AIRBAG DEPLOYMENTS!
So how many airbag deployments were there?
Tesla is being rather coy.
Lawsuit: NHTSA Ignored Freedom of Information Act Request
https://static.nhtsa.gov/odi/inv/2016/INCLA-PE16007-7876.PDF
"5.4 Crash rates. ODI analyzed mileage and airbag deployment data supplied by Tesla for all MY 2014 through 2016 Model S and 2016 Model X vehicles equipped with the Autopilot Technology Package, either installed in the vehicle when sold or through an OTA update, to calculate crash rates by miles travelled prior to21 and after Autopilot installation.22 Figure 11 shows the rates calculated by ODI for airbag deployment crashes in the subject Tesla vehicles before and after Autosteer installation. The data show that the Tesla vehicles crash rate dropped by almost 40 percent after Autosteer installation"
AIRBAG DEPLOYMENTS!
So how many airbag deployments were there?
Tesla is being rather coy.
Lawsuit: NHTSA Ignored Freedom of Information Act Request
Giving a simple example...
I have a non-AP, had an AP1 car, and have an AP2 car. So doesn't that make any generalized assertion about "AP driver" vs. "non-AP driver" kind of, well, confused by my data point? (Regardless of how I drive.)
SageBrush
REJECT Fascism
No
And your anecdote, even if valid, says almost nothing about a large group. Exceptions should be expected.
And your gut doesn't support any such assertion. Hence my initial query. I hoped you had something data-based to offer.
SageBrush
REJECT Fascism
No need for anecdotal or gut based estimates.
The truth will soon be revealed.
Lawsuit: NHTSA Ignored Freedom of Information Act Request
The truth will soon be revealed.
Lawsuit: NHTSA Ignored Freedom of Information Act Request
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