Northrup Grumman (was Orbital Sciences) Antares / Cygnus

[Grendal]

Maybe this is a naive question, but if people still want to use this rocket design, why can't Orbital or Aerojet basically copy the design and build their own version stateside? They have enough in storage to breakdown and know the science pretty well at this point, and technology and metallurgy have surely advanced since the 60's to improve on the design and performance specs.

Every article I read says that we can't match the metallurgy. Why? I have no clue.

My guess as to the cause of the failure is fractures in the metal. That was the stated cause of the other failures. It makes sense since these things were stored in Siberia for 50 years. You would have below freezing temps followed by heating over the course of decades. That's a lot of expansion and contraction.

Elon mentioned in the interview at MIT that he was considering a new engine design that follows the RD-180 and NK-33 style because of efficiency. The Merlin engines have the highest thrust to weight ratio but fail in efficiency.

 

[scaesare]

Great documentary on the NK-33 here

Thanks for posting this... it's been a while since I had seen it, and I couldn't place where I had seen that shot of the old Russian engines sitting in a warehouse...

 

[thelastdeadmouse]

Every article I read says that we can't match the metallurgy. Why? I have no clue.

Sounds like bull to me. Unless its some sort of situation where they cannot legally work with some of the compounds used. Its probably more "We cannot match the metallurgy for less than it costs us to buy a 50 year old engine."

 

[Doug_G]

Maybe this is a naive question, but if people still want to use this rocket design, why can't Orbital or Aerojet basically copy the design and build their own version stateside? They have enough in storage to breakdown and know the science pretty well at this point, and technology and metallurgy have surely advanced since the 60's to improve on the design and performance specs.

Yes, they can copy the design, but they won't have all sorts of information on metallurgy, treatments, surface coatings, etc. Without that, they will have to re-qualify all the parts from scratch. Engine parts aren't simply slabs of metal; they have very complex performance requirements and the process of designing and validating them is actually a very big job. So unless you can make something identical to the original, you will have to redo all that work.

Years ago I helped design a sensor for jet engines. Mechanically the sensor was an oddly-shaped piece of stainless steel pipe about six inches long. It took a couple of years and over a million dollars to validate that it would be safe to fly on the aircraft. Multiply that by all the parts on the engine and you're talking serious bucks and serious effort.

 

[c041v]

I read reports that the massive titanium panels of Russia's Alfa Class subs were welded in a construction shed filled with argon. Welder had to wear moon suits to actually do anything. I'd believe that Cold War era Russian metallurgy is not an easily replicable craft.

 

[CalDreamin]

I read reports that the massive titanium panels of Russia's Alfa Class subs were welded in a construction shed filled with argon. Welder had to wear moon suits to actually do anything. I'd believe that Cold War era Russian metallurgy is not an easily replicable craft.

Welding and other work done inside vessels filled with an inert gas are fairly common.

 

[JRod0802]

Post mortem for CRS-3 Antares notes turbopump failure | NASASpaceFlight.com

 

[sderrick]

Anteras Article

Maybe Orbital could book a few Dragon flights while they retool for a new engine? ;-)

 

[Six]

Anteras Article

Maybe Orbital could book a few Dragon flights while they retool for a new engine? ;-)

Another article in fact said something similar:

A switch to the RD-193 now appears to be favored – although Orbital officials do not wish to confirm the engine at this time. The new engine will debut on the Antares in 2016. In the meantime, one or two launches of Cygnus will take place on a different launch vehicle, possibly the Falcon 9 – among other options.

 

[sderrick]

That would be some serious crow eating for Orbital!

 

[Dutchie]

Might Space X need to save Orbital Sciences?

Might Elon Musk's SpaceX save the day for Orbital Sciences? - Washington Business Journal

 

[rabar10]

Guessing they would hitch a couple rides on the Atlas V instead -- it has a long-established track record of reliability at a time when Orbital needs exactly that, and it draws fewer direct comparisons between SpaceX and themselves.

 

[Grendal]

Guessing they would hitch a couple rides on the Atlas V instead -- it has a long-established track record of reliability at a time when Orbital needs exactly that, and it draws fewer direct comparisons between SpaceX and themselves.

Sure. But can they AFFORD to hitch a ride on an Atlas V? That's a really expensive rocket. SpaceX is still the least expensive way to LEO even if they are a competitor. And are they really competitors at this time? The contracts are done, Orbital got $1.8 billion for 8 missions and SpaceX got $1.6 billion for 13 missions. I think it would be fair for SpaceX to charge a little extra for each rocket if Orbital comes to them since Orbital was paid more up front. Orbital is a publically traded company and they need to avoid a hit to their bottom line, if possible.

 

[Cosmacelf]

I dunno, seems like just a matter of time before SpaceX effectively owns the entire launch market...

 

[HankLloydRight]

I think you mean: In no time, SpaceX is going to eat their launch.

 

[Cosmacelf]

Well, you know, There Ain't No Such Thing As A Free Launch.

 

[TEG]

Well, you know, There Ain't No Such Thing As A Free Launch.

 

[delanman]

The word from Director, Wallops, is that the flare is in fact glare coming off of ice crystals.

 

[Grendal]

Orbital looking for Cygnus launch slots next year | Spaceflight Now

"Thompson said Wednesday the company has narrowed its options to three launch providers which have openings as early as the second quarter — between April 1 and June 30 — of next year.

Two of the launch providers are based in the United States. Orbital could also launch Cygnus missions with a European-based company, Thompson said. The contractors under consideration are presumably United Launch Alliance, SpaceX and Arianespace."

Confirmation that Orbital is negotiating with SpaceX. I wouldn't be surprised if they were first on the list because of their lower price. It all comes down to whether SpaceX could fit them into their manifest. Orbital must bend to NASA's resupply needs, so timing will be critical.

 

[Cosmacelf]

One of Elon's strengths is that he can see the future very clearly. A lot of us in Technology have a pretty good idea where things are going too, but Elon has that rare ability to see the future so clearly that he effectively really knows what is going to happen.

Anyways, I mention this because imagine what he must have been thinking as the Falcon 9 was being developed, and he looks around at the competitors:

- one uses Russian rocket engines literally built 40 years ago
- one sources another kind of Russian rocket
- one is run by a bureaucracy huge and unwieldy with input from a dozen national politicians
- one is run by a country where saving face is paramount to the point of trumping safety and critical design issues (space isn't forgiving)

He must have been thinking, why the $)!?@ isn't anyone else entering this market? It is overripe for competition...

Meanwhile the rest of us go, Elon, are you crazy?