NYT/FX documentary on FSD

[doug]

There is doc coming out on May 20 about FSD.
At least from the marketing of it, it seems to have a particular slant:

‘New York Times Presents’ Doc Series to Investigate Elon Musk’s Tesla Self-Driving Tech Ambition

"Elon Musk's Crash Course" will probe "how Autopilot has been a factor in several deaths and dozens of other accidents that Tesla has not publicly acknowledged," according to FX.

www.hollywoodreporter.com

New York Times Presents: Elon Musk's Crash Course

 

[S4WRXTTCS]

It's probably going to make me groan at inaccuracies, and I don't even really like AP/FSD.

But, I'll definitely give it a watch when it hits Hulu.

 

[2101Guy]

I thought no one has ever died due to FSD, per this forum?

 

[VanFriscia]

I thought no one has ever died due to FSD, per this forum?

I believe that's true, but AP is different from FSD. There have been several deaths reported from people sleeping at the wheel (literally or figuratively) while using AP. The story typically goes that the nags were ignored, AP disengaged before the accident and the driver either failed to react at all or reacted too late.

 

[doug]

There have been several deaths reported from people sleeping at the wheel (literally or figuratively) while using AP. The story typically goes that the nags were ignored, AP disengaged before the accident and the driver either failed to react at all or reacted too late.

Also, earlier autopilot didn't have the level of nags there are today.

 

[2101Guy]

'Elon Musk's Crash Course' shows the tragic cost of his leadership

A New York Times/FX documentary explores the dangers of Tesla's self-driving technology and the fatal accidents it has caused.

www.npr.org

 

[2101Guy]

“As part of FX's The New York Times Presents documentary series, Elon Musk's Crash Coursesuggests that Musk oversold the cars' self-driving capabilities, leading to public confusion over what it could actually do. And when federal authorities began an investigation into a fatal crash involving the technology, the program says Musk pressured officials to curb the investigation.”

 

[JamesBond]

It's interesting this piece shows up just when Luminar's hit piece also dropped. Coordinated?

 

[doug]

Well, perhaps one sided, but I didn't find anything particularly inaccurate about it.

Not sure how much impact it will have, though. Perhaps I'm too close things, but I didn't hear anything I didn't already know.

 

[Tam]

...I didn't hear anything I didn't already know...

1) I knew that the official Tesla Full Self Drivng demo video was edited and I also assumed that the software was specially prepared for that demo only.

Thus, I thought the car was able to execute the software flawlessly when the bugs were flushed out by the end of the filming. That meant I thought the car drove one continuous run with no stopping in between. But this film revealed that there were multiple runs including one to fix the collision to the fence during the filming. OK! I did hear about the collision but I thought the bugs were fixed for the filming so, in the end, it should be a flawless perfect single run but this film seemed to suggest that Tesla cut out bad incidences and then combined only good portions from multiple runs.


2) I've read that Tesla has had a big advantage of the vast quantity of data for its system to learn how to drive but this film burst my bubbles: Neither the hardware nor the backend infrastructure existed to boast that kind of advantage.

 

[madodel]

1) I knew that the official Tesla Full Self Drivng demo video was edited and I also assumed that the software was specially prepared for that demo only.

Thus, I thought the car was able to execute the software flawlessly when the bugs were flushed out by the end of the filming. That meant I thought the car drove one continuous run with no stopping in between. But this film revealed that there were multiple runs including one to fix the collision to the fence during the filming. OK! I did hear about the collision but I thought the bugs were fixed for the filming so, in the end, it should be a flawless perfect single run but this film seemed to suggest that Tesla cut out bad incidences and then combined only good portions from multiple runs.


2) I've read that Tesla has had a big advantage of the vast quantity of data for its system to learn how to drive but this film burst my bubbles: Neither the hardware nor the backend infrastructure existed to boast that kind of advantage.

There were no facts or data to back up the attacks on AP/FSD. Just opinions from friends of the guy who died and a handful of former employees. Did you hear the guy say that the 40% reduction in accidents after AP was introduced was provided by Tesla, but that some experts didn't believe that number. OK where's their data to back up why it's wrong. It's all BS. The video paints a picture as if nothing has changed since 2016. I'D Cancel my subscription to the NYT is I still had one. This is just a hit piece. Musk is not helping things with his insane tweets, but there certainly is a lot of attacks on Tesla coincidentally popping up of late.

 

[Tam]

...OK where's their data to back up why it's wrong...

The data was hidden from researchers until Quality Control Systems sued for public access and got it 2 years later.

The raw data show the 40% calculation is flawed. By using that same raw data, the calculation is actually a 59% increase in accidents with the activation of Autosteer.

Quality Control Systems doesn't conclude that there's a 59% increase in accidents with the activation of Autosteer if there's a large sample but that's what the number is with the raw data supplied by NHTSA.

In 2017, the feds said Tesla Autopilot cut crashes 40%—that was bogus

Small firm gets Tesla crash data after 2-year legal battle with NHTSA, finds flawed study.

arstechnica.com

Tesla's explanation did not deny it's flawed but said it's because the sample is too small:

"given the dramatic increase in the number of Tesla vehicles on the road, their analysis today represents about 0.5% of the total mileage that Tesla vehicles have traveled to date, and about 1% of the total mileage that Tesla vehicles have traveled to date with Autopilot engaged." QCS focused on NHTSA data from only 5,714 vehicles."

 

[superblast]

There was a time when most documentaries seemed to provide fair and accurate information for a subject but these days, most seem to have an agenda and can't be trusted. I'm sure this is no exception considering who produced it.

 

[madodel]

In California are you seeing constant reports of Tesla collisions? Other than the handful of nationwide press articles on accidents they keep regurgitating, where are all these accidents from FSD? Every time I see a report of a car catching fire, driving through a building or in an accident that caused a fatality I know from the headline a Tesla wasn't involved or it would be in headline. The movie only mentions 3 and the last 2 were in the last quarter and again from years ago.

 

[nvx1977]

In California are you seeing constant reports of Tesla collisions? Other than the handful of nationwide press articles on accidents they keep regurgitating, where are all these accidents from FSD? Every time I see a report of a car catching fire, driving through a building or in an accident that caused a fatality I know from the headline a Tesla wasn't involved or it would be in headline. The movie only mentions 3 and the last 2 were in the last quarter and again from years ago.

Only way to put an end to the hit pieces is to just walk the walk. You've been around the Tesla community for a while. Do you still hear people talking about demand cliffs due to the expiration of the Fed EV tax credit, for example? Or that Model 3 is totally going to cannibalize Model S and X, the cars with biggest margins?

 

[madodel]

Only way to put an end to the hit pieces is to just walk the walk. You've been around the Tesla community for a while. Do you still hear people talking about demand cliffs due to the expiration of the Fed EV tax credit, for example? Or that Model 3 is totally going to cannibalize Model S and X, the cars with biggest margins?

Sorry, no idea what your point is. Walk what walk? Yes there have been endless bear theories on the imminent collapse of Tesla that are just lies that get lots of momentum in the press for as long as I've been following TSLA. That's a given. But with gas prices skyrocketing it seems the attacks on TSLA are becoming feverish. Like someone doesn't want people to believe they have an option to get away from the oil companies extortion racket. I don't know about you but I'm down about 20 million in the past couple months. Musk isn't helping things, but even though I've given up on him I still believe that Tesla will keep producing and selling all product they can make and making money. Unless we hit a depression or COVID becoming the Black Death, I don't see anything stopping Tesla from growing. No matter how much garbage the bears, shorts, Consumer Reports and the NYT shovel out. But that doesn't stop clueless people from believing this nonsense. Twenty years ago I saw a lot of the same against Apple. I held then and it paid off handsomely, I'm holding now. I may buy more next week.

 

[nvx1977]

Sorry, no idea what your point is. Walk what walk? Yes there have been endless bear theories on the imminent collapse of Tesla that are just lies that get lots of momentum in the press for as long as I've been following TSLA. That's a given. But with gas prices skyrocketing it seems the attacks on TSLA are becoming feverish. Like someone doesn't want people to believe they have an option to get away from the oil companies extortion racket. I don't know about you but I'm down about 20 million in the past couple months. Musk isn't helping things, but even though I've given up on him I still believe that Tesla will keep producing and selling all product they can make and making money. Unless we hit a depression or COVID becoming the Black Death, I don't see anything stopping Tesla from growing. No matter how much garbage the bears, shorts, Consumer Reports and the NYT shovel out. But that doesn't stop clueless people from believing this nonsense. Twenty years ago I saw a lot of the same against Apple. I held then and it paid off handsomely, I'm holding now. I may buy more next week.

Sorry, i wasn't very clear. I meant that Tesla was able to shut up all the hit pieces back in the day by simply executing well. They proved that demand was healthy, and that the cannibalization of S and X was a non-issue. If they continue to execute (walk the walk) on their FSD goals, eventually all the current FUD and hit pieces around FSD will also subside. It's just a matter of time. And despite the current ramp-up of hit pieces, and despite Musk getting publicly political when shutting up would be more prudent, I don't think it will have much long term effect on the stock.

I also don't think these hit pieces have as much reach as we might imagine. There are still TONS of people who don't know the first thing about EVs or Tesla or Elon Musk. The people with the vitriol and hate against the company, or the people who default hate billionaires made up their minds long ago. And their voices get amplified on Twitter because Twitter is a cesspool of venom, hate, and ignorance.

 

[Tam]

In California are you seeing constant reports of Tesla collisions?...

That's because when a consumer pays for technology, it should be better than humans or it should be free.

We don't want to pay for a calculator that sometimes produces a correct result and sometimes does not.

Thus, the message to the consumers must be consistent and clear, not just on the website but also in talks and lectures: They are not buying a car that can drive itself. In public, Elon Musk keeps insisting on L5, sleeping, and not buying the FSD is just like buying a horse.

The inconsistency led to the over-confidence and the arrest of Param Sharma who kept sitting in the back of the car so the car could drive on its own citing that:

“Elon Musk really knows what he’s doing and I think people are tripping and they're scared.”

Tesla owner who “drives” from back seat got arrested, then did it again

Man jailed for leaving driver seat empty says he feels safer in back seat.

arstechnica.com