Here is why the current Model 3 Performance orders by reservation holders are expected to finish production in 49 days:
Screenshot source:
Production tab
In the last few weeks. AWD production has increased a lot and they started to process lots of orders. The P VIN queue by reservation holders is already 37.6% complete. Out of 266 P3D buyers with reservations, 101 have already received their VINs and 26 more are receiving VINs per week which means 26/266= 9.8% per week.
Here is what you should expect for P3D with reservations:
27 Aug 2018 (today): 37.6% complete
4 Sep: 47.4% complete
11 Sep: 57.2% complete
18 Sep: 66.9% complete
25 Sep: 76.7% complete
2 Oct: 86.5% complete
9 Oct: 96.3% complete
However, this calculation includes only people who have already placed orders. People who will place orders in the next few days and weeks are not included. I plan to add them too because they too will receive priority over non-reservation holders.