First read this news article of March 25th, 2010: http://panasonic.co.jp/corp/news/official.data/data.dir/en100325-3/en100325-3.html
And this news article of October 21, 2013: http://www.autonews.com/article/20131021/OEM06/310219870/panasonic-to-increase-its-battery-capacity
The last sentence in the text of the 2013 news article is very important: "Officials declined to give capacity figures for cylindrical lithium ion batteries because that capacity targets almost exclusively a single automotive customer: Tesla."
This is the first and the second sentence from the third paragraph in the 2010 news article: "The Suminoe Factory began manufacturing electrodes last October, and will now begin mass production of battery cells this April starting with an initial capacity of 10 million units per month during the first year of operations. Panasonic plans to gradually increase the production capacity up to 25 million per month (300 million units per year) during the first phase, taking into consideration market conditions."
Does this information tell us something about the battery cell supply figures from Panasonic to Tesla Motors during the past few years (2010/2011/2012/2013)?
How many millions of those cylindrical Lithium Ion battery cells could Tesla Motors have received from Panasonic during the past few years (2010/2011/2012/2013)?
If we take into consederation that the battery cells which have been produced in the first week of January will arrive at the Tesla factory in Fremont in the first week of April, would that be a reasonable timeframe?
In 2010 Panasonic must have produced 90 million of those cylindrical Lithium Ion battery cells.
In 2011 Panasonic must have produced at least 120 million of those cylindrical Lithium Ion battery cells (if there was no gradual increase in production capacity).
In 2012 Panasonic must have produced at least 120 million of those cylindrical Lithium Ion battery cells (if there was no gradual increase in production capacity).
In 2013 Panasonic must have produced at least 120 million of those cylindrical Lithium Ion battery cells (if there was no gradual increase in production capacity).
In 2010 Tesla Motors must have received about 60 million of those cylindrical Lithium Ion battery cells.
In 2011 Tesla Motors must have received about 120 million of those cylindrical Lithium Ion battery cells (if Panasonic made no gradual increase in production capacity).
In 2012 Tesla Motors must have received about 120 million of those cylindrical Lithium Ion battery cells (if Panasonic made no gradual increase in production capacity).
In 2013 Tesla Motors must have received about 120 million of those cylindrical Lithium Ion battery cells (if Panasonic made no gradual increase in production capacity).
That is a total of 420 million battery cells. But only if Panasonic made no gradual increase in production capacity!!!
That total will be significantly higher if we assume that Panasonic actually did make gradual increase in production capacity.
If we consider that Panasonic increased production by 5 million per month, starting in April each year, then we get these Panasonic production numbers:
2010: 9 x 10M = 90M
2011: (3 x 10M) + (9 x 15M) = 165M
2012: (3 x 15M) + (9 x 20M) = 225M
2013: (3 x 20M) + (9 x 25M) = 285M
Then Tesla Motors must have received:
2010: (6 x 10M) = 60M
2011: (6 x 10M) + (6 x 15M) = 150M
2012: (6 x 15M) + (6 x 20M) = 210M
2013: (6 x 20M) + (6 x 25M) = 270M
Total: 690 million battery cells.
Tesla Motors produced battery packs for: the Tesla Roadster, Tesla Model S, Smart ForTwo ED, Toyota RAF4 EV, and the Mercedes Benz B-Class ED.
Now why should Tesla Motors be battery cell supply constrained?
Somebody please help me to (better) understand these numbers.
And this news article of October 21, 2013: http://www.autonews.com/article/20131021/OEM06/310219870/panasonic-to-increase-its-battery-capacity
The last sentence in the text of the 2013 news article is very important: "Officials declined to give capacity figures for cylindrical lithium ion batteries because that capacity targets almost exclusively a single automotive customer: Tesla."
This is the first and the second sentence from the third paragraph in the 2010 news article: "The Suminoe Factory began manufacturing electrodes last October, and will now begin mass production of battery cells this April starting with an initial capacity of 10 million units per month during the first year of operations. Panasonic plans to gradually increase the production capacity up to 25 million per month (300 million units per year) during the first phase, taking into consideration market conditions."
Does this information tell us something about the battery cell supply figures from Panasonic to Tesla Motors during the past few years (2010/2011/2012/2013)?
How many millions of those cylindrical Lithium Ion battery cells could Tesla Motors have received from Panasonic during the past few years (2010/2011/2012/2013)?
If we take into consederation that the battery cells which have been produced in the first week of January will arrive at the Tesla factory in Fremont in the first week of April, would that be a reasonable timeframe?
In 2010 Panasonic must have produced 90 million of those cylindrical Lithium Ion battery cells.
In 2011 Panasonic must have produced at least 120 million of those cylindrical Lithium Ion battery cells (if there was no gradual increase in production capacity).
In 2012 Panasonic must have produced at least 120 million of those cylindrical Lithium Ion battery cells (if there was no gradual increase in production capacity).
In 2013 Panasonic must have produced at least 120 million of those cylindrical Lithium Ion battery cells (if there was no gradual increase in production capacity).
In 2010 Tesla Motors must have received about 60 million of those cylindrical Lithium Ion battery cells.
In 2011 Tesla Motors must have received about 120 million of those cylindrical Lithium Ion battery cells (if Panasonic made no gradual increase in production capacity).
In 2012 Tesla Motors must have received about 120 million of those cylindrical Lithium Ion battery cells (if Panasonic made no gradual increase in production capacity).
In 2013 Tesla Motors must have received about 120 million of those cylindrical Lithium Ion battery cells (if Panasonic made no gradual increase in production capacity).
That is a total of 420 million battery cells. But only if Panasonic made no gradual increase in production capacity!!!
That total will be significantly higher if we assume that Panasonic actually did make gradual increase in production capacity.
If we consider that Panasonic increased production by 5 million per month, starting in April each year, then we get these Panasonic production numbers:
2010: 9 x 10M = 90M
2011: (3 x 10M) + (9 x 15M) = 165M
2012: (3 x 15M) + (9 x 20M) = 225M
2013: (3 x 20M) + (9 x 25M) = 285M
Then Tesla Motors must have received:
2010: (6 x 10M) = 60M
2011: (6 x 10M) + (6 x 15M) = 150M
2012: (6 x 15M) + (6 x 20M) = 210M
2013: (6 x 20M) + (6 x 25M) = 270M
Total: 690 million battery cells.
Tesla Motors produced battery packs for: the Tesla Roadster, Tesla Model S, Smart ForTwo ED, Toyota RAF4 EV, and the Mercedes Benz B-Class ED.
Now why should Tesla Motors be battery cell supply constrained?
Somebody please help me to (better) understand these numbers.