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Panasonic Sominoe plant (Osaka): 25M cylindrical Lithium Ion battery cells per month?

Discussion in 'TSLA Investor Discussions' started by Benz, May 1, 2014.

  1. Benz

    Benz Active Member

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    First read this news article of March 25th, 2010: http://panasonic.co.jp/corp/news/official.data/data.dir/en100325-3/en100325-3.html

    And this news article of October 21, 2013: http://www.autonews.com/article/20131021/OEM06/310219870/panasonic-to-increase-its-battery-capacity

    The last sentence in the text of the 2013 news article is very important: "Officials declined to give capacity figures for cylindrical lithium ion batteries because that capacity targets almost exclusively a single automotive customer: Tesla."

    This is the first and the second sentence from the third paragraph in the 2010 news article: "The Suminoe Factory began manufacturing electrodes last October, and will now begin mass production of battery cells this April starting with an initial capacity of 10 million units per month during the first year of operations. Panasonic plans to gradually increase the production capacity up to 25 million per month (300 million units per year) during the first phase, taking into consideration market conditions."

    Does this information tell us something about the battery cell supply figures from Panasonic to Tesla Motors during the past few years (2010/2011/2012/2013)?

    How many millions of those cylindrical Lithium Ion battery cells could Tesla Motors have received from Panasonic during the past few years (2010/2011/2012/2013)?

    If we take into consederation that the battery cells which have been produced in the first week of January will arrive at the Tesla factory in Fremont in the first week of April, would that be a reasonable timeframe?

    In 2010 Panasonic must have produced 90 million of those cylindrical Lithium Ion battery cells.
    In 2011 Panasonic must have produced at least 120 million of those cylindrical Lithium Ion battery cells (if there was no gradual increase in production capacity).
    In 2012 Panasonic must have produced at least 120 million of those cylindrical Lithium Ion battery cells (if there was no gradual increase in production capacity).
    In 2013 Panasonic must have produced at least 120 million of those cylindrical Lithium Ion battery cells (if there was no gradual increase in production capacity).

    In 2010 Tesla Motors must have received about 60 million of those cylindrical Lithium Ion battery cells.
    In 2011 Tesla Motors must have received about 120 million of those cylindrical Lithium Ion battery cells (if Panasonic made no gradual increase in production capacity).
    In 2012 Tesla Motors must have received about 120 million of those cylindrical Lithium Ion battery cells (if Panasonic made no gradual increase in production capacity).
    In 2013 Tesla Motors must have received about 120 million of those cylindrical Lithium Ion battery cells (if Panasonic made no gradual increase in production capacity).

    That is a total of 420 million battery cells. But only if Panasonic made no gradual increase in production capacity!!!

    That total will be significantly higher if we assume that Panasonic actually did make gradual increase in production capacity.

    If we consider that Panasonic increased production by 5 million per month, starting in April each year, then we get these Panasonic production numbers:

    2010: 9 x 10M = 90M
    2011: (3 x 10M) + (9 x 15M) = 165M
    2012: (3 x 15M) + (9 x 20M) = 225M
    2013: (3 x 20M) + (9 x 25M) = 285M

    Then Tesla Motors must have received:

    2010: (6 x 10M) = 60M
    2011: (6 x 10M) + (6 x 15M) = 150M
    2012: (6 x 15M) + (6 x 20M) = 210M
    2013: (6 x 20M) + (6 x 25M) = 270M

    Total: 690 million battery cells.

    Tesla Motors produced battery packs for: the Tesla Roadster, Tesla Model S, Smart ForTwo ED, Toyota RAF4 EV, and the Mercedes Benz B-Class ED.

    Now why should Tesla Motors be battery cell supply constrained?

    Somebody please help me to (better) understand these numbers.
     
  2. techmaven

    techmaven Active Member

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    Whoa.

    Panasonic started to provide 3.1Ah cells to Tesla in 2010. Think of how many Model S's Tesla delivered in 2010. Or 2011. The answer is 0. Do you really believe the Suminoe delivered 150 million cells for Model S production through 2011?
     
  3. Benz

    Benz Active Member

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    Don't they use the same 18650 battery cells for all the battery packs (Tesla Roadster, Tesla Model S, Smart ForTwo ED, Toyota RAF4 EV, and the Mercedes Benz B-Class ED)?
     
  4. techmaven

    techmaven Active Member

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    Tesla Roadster used a different generation of cells than the Model S. The entire production run from 2008 to 2012 of Roadsters amounts to about 17 million cells.

    The RAV4 EV did not commence deliveries until 2012. Same with the Model S. The B-Class ED will start deliveries this year. The Smart ED's 2nd generation had a total production run of 2,000 cars from 2009 with the bulk made in 2010.

    Therefore, there are only small production runs from 2009 through 2011, with 3.1Ah cells in mass production for Tesla only starting in 2012 for any vehicle with a Tesla power train.
     
  5. 30seconds

    30seconds Active Member

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    quick math but 270million cells would be sufficient for ~38,500 packs (@ 7000 per). So if your number are just a bit off on the ramp and there is some loss due to failure & other uses that 38,500 in 2013 could easily be closer to 30,000.
     
  6. Benz

    Benz Active Member

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    That means that what is mentioned in the first and the second sentence from the third paragraph in the 2010 news article:

    --- "The Suminoe Factory began manufacturing electrodes last October, and will now begin mass production of battery cells this April starting with an initial capacity of 10 million units per month during the first year of operations. Panasonic plans to gradually increase the production capacity up to 25 million per month (300 million units per year) during the first phase, taking into consideration market conditions." ---

    is not correct.

    But that info comes from Panasonic Headquarters News.

    What about the production capacity of the Suminoe plant of 25 million per month (300 million units per year) during the first phase?

    Should we at least consider that to be correct?
     
  7. techmaven

    techmaven Active Member

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    The Suminoe plant is a cylindrical form factor plant. Suminoe made cells for any number of customers from 2010 through 2013 including laptop batteries. It apparently was completed through phase 1, but Panasonic announced that they were not going to do phase 2 due to insufficient demand for that kind of cell output. Further, they shuttered other plants in Japan and shifted production to new facilities in China. At some point in 2013, Tesla likely dominated the usage of the output of this plant and wanted more which would have meant increasing capacity. With the new cell supplier agreement agreed upon by Tesla and Panasonic last fall, Suminoe phase 2 expansion was to commence as well as bringing back online a mothballed plant.
     
  8. vgrinshpun

    vgrinshpun Active Member

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    The second phase of the Suminoe Plant was not part of the 1.8B cells, 4 year Panasonic agreement that was signed last October. The agreement included an average of 450M cells/year (1.8B / 4). 300M cells/year were to come from the originally operating and restarted line(s) at the Suminoe plant with an additional 150M cells/year from the restarted mothballed line(s) of another plant in the Osaka Prefecture (Kaizuka Plant).

    The additional 300M cells/year to be produced at Suminoe Phase 2 plant starting in 2015 are on top of 1.8B Panasonic agreement.

    See Tesla Gigafactory Investor Thread - Page 74 for some additional details on the subject.
     
  9. techmaven

    techmaven Active Member

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    I have been meaning to go over all of the Panasonic IR in a consistent method in order to try to count properly. At the moment, from all I have read, the October announcement includes the phase 2 expansion of the Suminoe plant. Further, it is not clear how much capacity Tesla is going to use of these Japanese plants after the Gigafactory is brought online. This also ties into just how Tesla manages to achieve 30% price reduction. Many sources have pointed to scale by itself is insufficient to achieve those price reductions. I do not know how to weigh those concerns made by industry people. Also, It is possible that the Gigafactory is for Gen 3 only and these Japanese plants continue to provide cells for Model S and X even after the Gigafactory is online. Hence the Panasonic investment in these plants makes sense for more than a few years. Otherwise, the cylindrical form factor worldwide usage is likely to drop which means this expansion is risky.
     
  10. uselesslogin

    uselesslogin Enthusiast

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    Look at the Tesla gigafactory slides. There is a slide that says it will produce 35 gwhr of cells and 50 gwhr of packs. Presumably the missing 15 gwhr come from the ramp-ups that Panasonic is making now.
     
  11. azure1979

    azure1979 Member

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    models s battery is not normal battery

    Model S battery is not a normal battery. The battery need something special ingrediants. There is youtube video about Models s battery.
    Why do Li-ion Batteries die ? and how to improve the situation? - YouTube
     
  12. Benz

    Benz Active Member

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    We obviously do not know the real numbers, but if we would have to make a guess/estimate/expectation, then how would the delivery numbers of those 18650 battery cells look like?

    More specifically: "How many millions of 18650 battery cells have been delivered to the Tesla Motors factory in Fremont on a monthly basis in the first four months of 2014 (January, February, March, April)?"
     
  13. uselesslogin

    uselesslogin Enthusiast

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    OK, I'm not sure what that has to do with my comment though. I was meaning that Panasonic would produce 15 gwhr of the Model S batteries and send the to the gigafactory where they would be put in a pack alongside the batteries produced at the gigafactory.
     
  14. techmaven

    techmaven Active Member

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    Yes, that is also my presumption, but I would love to see actual confirmation. Can anyone point to any public statements to that effect?
     

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