Papafox's Daily TSLA Trading Charts

[neroden]

Options expiration day is craziness multiplied.

I am learning lessons as a trader and investor through practice. A couple of the trades I tried this year didn't work out *and* made me nervous, so I won't be doing those again. I found out I really dislike being on the wrong side of time decay, so I think I'm never going to buy an option again. On the other hand, I managed to make small profits on several of my short puts even though the stock went down, so I really like having time decay on my side; I think I will keep doing that. Gotta do what lets you sleep at night.

 

[Papafox]

Congratulations, longs, we're right on schedule for defining that the current downtrend is over for TSLA and the uptrend (hopefully leading all the way to Q3 delivery numbers release in early October and beyond) has begun. Today was day three of green trading for TSLA. We haven't seen such a thing since July. TSLA not only hit our 205 target for today but it did so in a down macro environment and added 40 cents, most of it in the last minute of trading. To stay on track for a serious statement that the slow descent of SP is over, I am hoping we see a big opening on Monday morning. This would be caused by potential longs deciding over the weekend that TSLA makes sense to jump back into, and their doing so in the amateur hour (first hour of trading) would be the catalyst that sends additional shorts to covering their positions.

Do you notice the difference in how the charts look today and yesterday when compared to previous weeks? The lack of short-selling removes most of the deep downward dips and immediate partial recoveries we've seen in previous sessions. I'd like to study the trading chart to understand what it looks like without short-selling, but we must remember that we're in an artificial environment right now with some forced recalls of short shares, which certainly affects the dynamics of trading. Nonetheless, I won't argue with the results ; )

Conditions:
* Dow down 89 (0.49%)
* NASDAQ down 5 (0.10%)
* TSLA 205.40, up 4.98 (2.48%)
* TSLA volume: 3.1M shares
* SCTY 17.50, up 0.40 (2.34%)

 

[neroden]

Bleah, spent the day unwinding trades which I didn't like, increasing my cash position to account for unexpected expenses, while simultaneously trying to do tax planning. Took longer than I'd hoped. I think I need to take an enforced break from trading for a while. I'm gonna watch your charts as a bystander for a while.

 

[Papafox]

Bleah, spent the day unwinding trades which I didn't like, increasing my cash position to account for unexpected expenses, while simultaneously trying to do tax planning. Took longer than I'd hoped. I think I need to take an enforced break from trading for a while. I'm gonna watch your charts as a bystander for a while.

Please do speak up sometimes, though. Your views have been quite valuable in these threads.

 

[Papafox]

This morning we saw the hoped-for long buying in the first hour of trading, which likely touched off some short share covering, and TSLA exceeded 209. Unfortunately, word of 4 lawsuits trying to block the merger had the effect of casting some doubt on the stock and the broader markets turned negative in early afternoon, which together led to a loss of most of the morning's gains today. The good news is that TSLA closed up nearly $1, thus extending its green streak to 4 sessions in a row now.

Enough uncertainty still remains with the SCTY merger that long buyers are being careful today, despite a bullish technical article being released by The Street early this morning. Without much play by the shorts, we saw a tiny 2.25 M shares traded today. Yes, there is indeed a correlation between few to no shares to short and low volumes. I believe most traders really don't understand just how much of the daily trading volume is through the buying and selling done by shorts or traders who switch comfortably between trading long and short as the moment requires. At some point, though, particularly as we get closer to the release of Q3 delivery numbers in 2 weeks, the longs will have to wake from their slumbers and start buying, otherwise we would be looking at a ridiculously-attractive buying opportunity on the eve of the Q3 numbers release Oct 1-3.

Although Tesla's plan has been to signify the record date during this week of Sept 19, it is possible that the record date may not be set until next week, due to the lawsuits. A week delay of the record date would have the effect of keeping the shorts on the sidelines for another week, which would aid the current uptrend to extend into the pre-October 1-3 expected buying and thereby derisk the potential mischief the shorts could do to threaten the perception that the downtrend is well behind us.

Conditions:
Dow: down 4 (0.02%)
NASDAQ: down 10 (0.18%)
TSLA 206.34, up 0.94 (0.46%)
TSLA volume: 2.25M shares
SCTY 17.23, down 0.27 (1.54%)

 

[Papafox]

Today could be looked at as either a consolidation day after TSLA's run up from the mid 190s, or it could be a signal of uncertainty, which could lead to a short downtrend. With the release of Q3 delivery numbers less than two weeks away, one would expect buying pressure to be present some time next week. Since most of the recall of shares is likely done now, the automatic positive effect of the recall is fading and will need to be replaced with positive news from Tesla. The on-time release of Autopilot 8.0 software on Wednesday might be seen as a positive sign of Tesla's ability to quickly address a weakness in the car, similar to its very thorough and very successful fix to problems with large, heavy road debris, which caused a few f*res in Teslas back in earlier years.

The big news today was SCTY's gain of 6.50% on a day when TSLA was down 0.82%. Some stories ran today suggesting that the SCTY merger was 80% likely to go through, which likely prompted the renewed confidence in SCTY's move in the direction of Tesla's offered exchange rate. Thus, the gap has closed quite a bit today.

One of the big questions at present is when will the record date for the merger take place. Nobody is releasing shares to short while the record date is still unknown, and the arrival of shares to short will likely cause a dip as new short positions are established, despite the upcoming Q3 delivery numbers, which look like they'll be a positive surprise to the market and analysts. If the record date takes place next week while traders are loading up on TSLA shares, however, the dip could be avoided.

Conditions:
* Dow up 10 (0.05%)
* NASDAQ up 6 (00.12%)
* TSLA 204.64, down 1.70 ( 0.82%)
* TSLA volume 2.4M shares
* SCTY 18.35, up 1.12 (6.50%)

 

[TrendTrader007]

View attachment 195266
Today could be looked at as either a consolidation day after TSLA's run up from the mid 190s, or it could be a signal of uncertainty, which could lead to a short downtrend. With the release of Q3 delivery numbers less than two weeks away, one would expect buying pressure to be present some time next week. Since most of the recall of shares is likely done now, the automatic positive effect of the recall is fading and will need to be replaced with positive news from Tesla. The on-time release of Autopilot 8.0 software on Wednesday might be seen as a positive sign of Tesla's ability to quickly address a weakness in the car, similar to its very thorough and very successful fix to problems with large, heavy road debris, which caused a few f*res in Teslas back in earlier years.

The big news today was SCTY's gain of 6.50% on a day when TSLA was down 0.82%. Some stories ran today suggesting that the SCTY merger was 80% likely to go through, which likely prompted the renewed confidence in SCTY's move in the direction of Tesla's offered exchange rate. Thus, the gap has closed quite a bit today.

One of the big questions at present is when will the record date for the merger take place. Nobody is releasing shares to short while the record date is still unknown, and the arrival of shares to short will likely cause a dip as new short positions are established, despite the upcoming Q3 delivery numbers, which look like they'll be a positive surprise to the market and analysts. If the record date takes place next week while traders are loading up on TSLA shares, however, the dip could be avoided.

Conditions:
* Dow up 10 (0.05%)
* NASDAQ up 6 (00.12%)
* TSLA 204.64, down 1.70 ( 0.82%)
* TSLA volume 2.4M shares
* SCTY 18.35, up 1.12 (6.50%)

SCTY is forming a triple bottom in 2016 cooling at daily chart
TSLA is simply a very nice and orderly pullback to 13 EMA on 2 hourly chart
both should continue to go up

 

[Papafox]

This was one of the few days when I risked whiplash by watching a stock chart. Wow. Starting at about 10:45am TSLA dropped from a nice positive start to well into the red. Then at about 12:42pm, TSLA shot up to touch the green briefly. In retrospect, I am thinking that the drop was caused by the Apple/McLaren rumor and the rise was caused by the McLaren denial of the rumor. If anyone has time to check the times of these notices, we can determine whether or not these explanations fit the time frames (I am at the airport about to travel for the next 5 hours).

Shares to short are still in short supply and the borrowing rate at Fidelity is up to 30%. The shorts appear to be oblivious to the Q3 numbers coming in 10 days and for this reason if more shares come available to short, we can expect some downward pressure from them. On the other hand we're likely to see upward pressure on TSLA the closer we get to Oct 1, for the current SP looks extremely attractive going into the Q3 delivery numbers release.

Perhaps the best news today is that we closed in the green, which keeps TSLA on track with defining itself in the early stages of an upturn.

Conditions:
* Dow up 164 (0.90%)
* NASDAQ up 54 (1.03%)
* TSLA 205.22, up 0.58 (0.28%)
* TSLA volume2.6M shares
* SCTY 18.33, down 0.02 (0.11%)

 

[TrendTrader007]

View attachment 195423
This was one of the few days when I risked whiplash by watching a stock chart. Wow. Starting at about 10:45am TSLA dropped from a nice positive start to well into the red. Then at about 12:42pm, TSLA shot up to touch the green briefly. In retrospect, I am thinking that the drop was caused by the Apple/McLaren rumor and the rise was caused by the McLaren denial of the rumor. If anyone has time to check the times of these notices, we can determine whether or not these explanations fit the time frames (I am at the airport about to travel for the next 5 hours).

Shares to short are still in short supply and the borrowing rate at Fidelity is up to 30%. The shorts appear to be oblivious to the Q3 numbers coming in 10 days and for this reason if more shares come available to short, we can expect some downward pressure from them. On the other hand we're likely to see upward pressure on TSLA the closer we get to Oct 1, for the current SP looks extremely attractive going into the Q3 delivery numbers release.

Perhaps the best news today is that we closed in the green, which keeps TSLA on track with defining itself in the early stages of an upturn.

Conditions:
* Dow up 164 (0.90%)
* NASDAQ up 54 (1.03%)
* TSLA 205.22, up 0.58 (0.28%)
* TSLA volume2.6M shares
* SCTY 18.33, down 0.02 (0.11%)

i totally agree with your assessment
TSLA did end up forming an impressive hammer today so i suspect we will soon see some upward movement in the stock
shorts are oblivious to the train coming around the corner because they are smug with the nowhere fast movement of TSLA over the last several months but this is all about to change with Q3 numbers about to be released in less than 2 weeks
it does nowhere fast until it doesn't and shorts are about to get a surprise

 

[Papafox]

Congratulations, longs are now looking at 6 green days out of the past 7 trading days. We've established an uptrend. We began the streak at 196 and closed today over 206.

Take a look on this page and compare today's trading to yesterday's trading. Notice anything similar? Both days began with positive pre-market trading, a positive jump up on opening and then during the morning hours TSLA dipped well into the red and then recovered hours later, to close with at least a $1 gain.At the same time, IB reported shares to short available early in the morning on both days and then the shares disappeared not long afterwards. One possibility is that with these low volumes, part of the morning drop was shorts buying in and then by afternoon the bulls took the lead. It's good to see with light quantities of shorts reentering, the market can absorb and still deliver a positive day's trading and shrug off a dip and close higher two days in a row.

Conditions:
* Dow up 99 ((0.54%)
* NASDAQ up 44 (0.84%)
* TSLA 206.43, up 1.21 (0.59%)
* TSLA volume 2.4M shares
* SCTY 18.71, up 0.38 (2.07%)
* News: Tesla autopilot 8.0 software released last night and has received numerous positive media reviews

 

[Papafox]

I almost laughed out loud when I saw today's $208.99 closing price for TSLA today because it pretty much tells the story of what transpired today. The massive number of new shares to short never became available this morning, which allowed the first hour of trading (amateur hour) to produce the kind of Monday morning gain we often see, in this case TSLA rose above $210. Take a look at the trading chart and you will see unusually smooth trading increments with none of the big jumps up and down that we're used to seeing (after we reached 210). Interpretation? If you look at the small stairsteps leading down from the 210 high, I believe that shorts began selling in a fashion so that they were trying to walk the SP down to 208, but once they reached 208, the SP ran away from them and so they held it at 209 instead. Look at that long period of trading mid-day right at 209. You just don't see long stretches of horizontal trading of a volatile stock like TSLA unless some manipulation is involved. At the end of the day, shorts made sure we closed below 209, in this case 208.99, another classic sign of manipulation. We know that some shares to short were available this morning, and others could have come available during the day as some shorts bailed and others picked up those shares. On a low volume day such as today, it doesn't take a ton of shares to hold the line on the stock price if longs are unsure what will transpire this week.

If you look at TSLA's strength compared with the broader markets, investors are generally bullish about Tesla because the broader markets were down nearly a dollar and TSLA was up 0.74%.

The low-ball 22,000 delivery number proposed by Trip Chowdry today suggests that many investors including shorts are expecting lower delivery numbers that those anticipated on this forum. For this reason, fear of next week might not be all that great with the short selller community as we have expected. Meanwhile, shorts expect the available shares to short to increase dramatically sometime soon, and they are using their efforts to hold the line until more shares arrive and more shorts jump in. Thus, we have a contest of wills underway. Longs expect other longs to jump in (which seemed to be the case today) as Q3 delivery numbers approach, and shorts want to hold the line to avoid widespread defections by shorts prior to new shares showing up and a big buying effort, under the theory that the SCTY merger will sink the TSLA price. My guess is that if longs can hold the line to Friday, they will win. There's also the rather strong possibility of a significant upward breakout some time this week. If significant quantities of shares to short arrive on Tuesday, though, the shorts could gain the upper hand. Remember, lots of available shares to short do no good for the current shorts if TSLA is rising and shorts see losses if they establish new positions.

Over at SCTY, the stock momentarily exceeded $20 today and closed near that high. The arbitrage gap between SCTY and TSLA continues to shrink, implying growing confidence in the success of the merger. Today we saw greater than a 3% closing of the gap, on top of last week's substantial gap closings.

Conditions:
* Dow down 167 (0.91%)
* NASDAQ down 48 (0.91%)
* TSLA 208.99, up 1.54 (0.74%)
* TSLA volume 2.4M shares
* SCTY 19.98, up 0.74 (3.85%)

 

[Skryll]

Would have been a good time to sell I take it? My 208 sell order did not go through, so cant buy it back at 204 this time.

 

[Papafox]

Today was another significant milestone on TSLA's march to the Q3 delivery release date. Today was the first date when shorts were not limited by the available shares. Rather, they were limited by their expectations of profitability from entering a position this week. If you look at the trading, we certainly saw lots of short selling today. How do I know? You can see the steep dips in price, followed by near immediate recoveries or partial recoveries. Translation: nobody who is selling to exit a long position will sell so many shares at one time to create a dip in the SP. Rather, if you limited your selling to 1,000 shares/minute you would have little effect upon the price and you would end up with a higher selling price. Therefore, the only reason for huge bursts of selling are either 1) short-sellers trying to depress the SP as they enter, 2) longs or shorts trying to sell at the highest SP when the SP is likely to decrease immediately because of some news released just now, or 3) some type of algobot reactions.

Notice that three attempts were made to breach the 205 level today. Two of the attempts hit and bounced, and the one sneak attempt in the low volume afternoon hours was deflected early. All in all, I am happy with TSLA's resilience to the short-selling today and I am happy that the short-selling efforts were so weak.

What can we expect for the rest of the week? I would be extremely surprised not to see a rise on Friday, it's just too likely to yield positive results by Monday. So, we're down to Wednesday and Thursday with question marks. There are surely some shorts who plan to exit this week who haven't done so already, and the probability of their exits increase as the week goes on, just as the probability of new longs coming in increases as the week goes on. I suspect we'll see another short assault on 205 tomorrow, and it may succeed. Hopefully, it won't go too far below. Sometime within the next three days the stock will turn upward, perhaps climbing at a surprising rate (Friday morning?) The bottom line is that you really need to keep an eye on TSLA this week if you wish to buy more shares or calls before Friday. We may get a better price tomorrow, and then it might zoom up. I am handling this situation by spreading out my buying this week.

Conditions:
* Dow up 133 (0.74%)
* NASDAQ up 48 (0.92%)
* TSLA 205.81, down 3.18 (1.52%)
* TSLA volume 3.3M shares
* SCTY 20.0, up 0.02 (0.10%)

 

[Papafox]

Today TSLA shorts started out with far fewer shares available than on Tuesday, which may largely explain the difference in trading between yesterday and today. Whereas I expected a brokerage such as IB to have over 100,000 shares available this morning, apparently it was 3X,000 shares instead. This was a surprise because it means to me that TSLA may not yet be trading as it would with unlimited shares available to short. With interest rates coming down from 12% to 6% for borrowing shares to short, one should consider that on Thursday a great many shares might be available and may influence Thursday's trading. We'll see. In think by Friday the bulls will be in charge, loading up on TSLA before the weekend, but Thursday is a bit of a question mark, as it turns out. With a low of about 205 on Tuesday and a low of about 206 today, I was expecting Thursday to be an even higher low, but that result is no longer a certainty. Suggestion: check to see how many shares are available for shorting on Thursday morning to influence your trading.

In terms of issues affecting the stock price, I think you primarily see a tug-of-war between shorts considering short-selliing cheaper, more readily-available shares and longs ready to load up on shares before the weekend. Shorts are frustrated that their selling-induced dips don't go very far before turning around, and longs are having some difficulty determining when TSLA has bottomed out this week for purposes of buying. The NASDAQ dipped at about 11am today, which coincided with a short-supplemented dip at that same time, but for the most part TSLA wasn't trading much in synch with the broader markets today. The shorts vs. longs tug-of-war seems to be the prevailing issue affecting SP at the moment.

Conditions:
* Dow up 111 (0.61%)
* NASDAQ up 13 (0.24%)
* TSLA 206.27, up 0.46 (0.22%)
* TSLA volume 2.1M shares
* SCTY 20.48, up 0.49 (2.45%)

 

[Novice]

View attachment 196715
Today TSLA shorts started out with far fewer shares available than on Tuesday, which may largely explain the difference in trading between yesterday and today. Whereas I expected a brokerage such as IB to have over 100,000 shares available this morning, apparently it was 3X,000 shares instead. This was a surprise because it means to me that TSLA may not yet be trading as it would with unlimited shares available to short. With interest rates coming down from 12% to 6% for borrowing shares to short, one should consider that on Thursday a great many shares might be available and may influence Thursday's trading. We'll see. In think by Friday the bulls will be in charge, loading up on TSLA before the weekend, but Thursday is a bit of a question mark, as it turns out. With a low of about 205 on Tuesday and a low of about 206 today, I was expecting Thursday to be an even higher low, but that result is no longer a certainty. Suggestion: check to see how many shares are available for shorting on Thursday morning to influence your trading.

In terms of issues affecting the stock price, I think you primarily see a tug-of-war between shorts considering short-selliing cheaper, more readily-available shares and longs ready to load up on shares before the weekend. Shorts are frustrated that their selling-induced dips don't go very far before turning around, and longs are having some difficulty determining when TSLA has bottomed out this week for purposes of buying. The NASDAQ dipped at about 11am today, which coincided with a short-supplemented dip at that same time, but for the most part TSLA wasn't trading much in synch with the broader markets today. The shorts vs. longs tug-of-war seems to be the prevailing issue affecting SP at the moment.

Conditions:
* Dow up 111 (0.61%)
* NASDAQ up 13 (0.24%)
* TSLA 206.27, up 0.46 (0.22%)
* TSLA volume 2.1M shares
* SCTY 20.48, up 0.49 (2.45%)

It seems like two more days to q3 result there is still no appreciable increase in SP. Wonder when q3 results are out next week will we see the long anticipated significant rise and whether it will be sustained. That brings to mind the bullish article by the street you posted last week. The article states it has deadly accuracy in predicting SP movements for the past two years and it is confident SP will move towards the 300 mark. Any possibility of that ?

 

[Papafox]

It seems like two more days to q3 result there is still no appreciable increase in SP. Wonder when q3 results are out next week will we see the long anticipated significant rise and whether it will be sustained. That brings to mind the bullish article by the street you posted last week. The article states it has deadly accuracy in predicting SP movements for the past two years and it is confident SP will move towards the 300 mark. Any possibility of that ?

What we see in shorts and with analysts are considerably different expectations in what the Q3 delivery numbers will be. Shorts are thinking we'll see another miss of expectations (with about 22,000 vehicles delivered being pretty close to expectations) and a significant hit to gross margin because of a couple weeks of discounting inventory vehicles. The shorts who have spoken up on the issue give numbers like 19,000 vehicles with worsening GM. Analysts are giving estimates of about 22,000 vehicles, and the consensus of some of our more studious TMC members is 24,000-25,000 vehicles with a respectable 23% gross margin. I think the main reason you haven't see lots of price appreciation in the past week with TSLA is because many investors simply are underestimating what the numbers will be. Add to this the headwinds we're battling this week as short sellers start selling into new positions (which depresses the stock price) and you have a lackluster week so far. I think we'll see some positive advancement of the stock price on Friday, however, because lots of longs on this forum plan to add shares before the close of trading on Friday and they are an indication that other knowledgeable traders will be adding shares as well. So, we're set up to see lots of shorts and longs really surprised if TSLA delivers over 24,000 vehicles in Q3 and I would expect some very nice improvement in the stock price.

You ask about TSLA at $300. Certainly this price and higher is possible in the not too distant future, but it's really hard to pinpoint when the financial community will think that Tesla is through the dangerous portion of its ramp-up to produce hundreds of thousands of vehicles and lots of Tesla Energy products. As fear eases and Tesla continues to show progress, the price will continue to rise. I've seen members lose lots of money with options because they try to time the next big jump, and the moral of the story is that sometimes the timing is difficult to pinpoint. Two huge hurdles we need to overcome is getting the SolarCity merger question behind us (most likely the merger will be a go and showing that SCTY is not sucking up lots of cash will relieve much anxiety). Doing a capital raise in the next three months to insure that Tesla has the cash to complete the necessary sections of the gigafactory and bring Model 3 to a production level of hundreds of thousands of vehicles per year is the other big hurdle to cross. Once these two hurdles are crossed, and if Tesla is staying on schedule with Model 3 launch and with Tesla Energy projects and doing well with Model S and X production and deliveries, then the stock will take off. Sometimes, though, the market anticipates these good things. Consider the run up to 265 simply because of the Model 3 reservation numbers. Thus, I say again, sometimes there are very pleasant surprises in the stock price appreciation.

As an investor, what you need to keep your eye on is whether Tesla is staying on track to achieve huge Model 3 deliveries. Will it have enough money through a successful equity raise? Is the factory coming together fast enough for late 2017 production? Is autopilot on track to develop into autonomous driving in a few years? Are we going to see suitable gross margins for producing S, X and Model 3? If all these issues remain satisfactory, they we're on track to exceed $300 before the end of 2017, and possibly a lot sooner. That's a big challenge, but I personally feel that Musk and his team are up to that challenge.

 

[Novice]

What we see in shorts and with analysts are considerably different expectations in what the Q3 delivery numbers will be. Shorts are thinking we'll see another miss of expectations (with about 22,000 vehicles delivered being pretty close to expectations) and a significant hit to gross margin because of a couple weeks of discounting inventory vehicles. The shorts who have spoken up on the issue give numbers like 19,000 vehicles with worsening GM. Analysts are giving estimates of about 22,000 vehicles, and the consensus of some of our more studious TMC members is 24,000-25,000 vehicles with a respectable 23% gross margin. I think the main reason you haven't see lots of price appreciation in the past week with TSLA is because many investors simply are underestimating what the numbers will be. Add to this the headwinds we're battling this week as short sellers start selling into new positions (which depresses the stock price) and you have a lackluster week so far. I think we'll see some positive advancement of the stock price on Friday, however, because lots of longs on this forum plan to add shares before the close of trading on Friday and they are an indication that other knowledgeable traders will be adding shares as well. So, we're set up to see lots of shorts and longs really surprised if TSLA delivers over 24,000 vehicles in Q3 and I would expect some very nice improvement in the stock price.

You ask about TSLA at $300. Certainly this price and higher is possible in the not too distant future, but it's really hard to pinpoint when the financial community will think that Tesla is through the dangerous portion of its ramp-up to produce hundreds of thousands of vehicles and lots of Tesla Energy products. As fear eases and Tesla continues to show progress, the price will continue to rise. I've seen members lose lots of money with options because they try to time the next big jump, and the moral of the story is that sometimes the timing is difficult to pinpoint. Two huge hurdles we need to overcome is getting the SolarCity merger question behind us (most likely the merger will be a go and showing that SCTY is not sucking up lots of cash will relieve much anxiety). Doing a capital raise in the next three months to insure that Tesla has the cash to complete the necessary sections of the gigafactory and bring Model 3 to a production level of hundreds of thousands of vehicles per year is the other big hurdle to cross. Once these two hurdles are crossed, and if Tesla is staying on schedule with Model 3 launch and with Tesla Energy projects and doing well with Model S and X production and deliveries, then the stock will take off. Sometimes, though, the market anticipates these good things. Consider the run up to 265 simply because of the Model 3 reservation numbers. Thus, I say again, sometimes there are very pleasant surprises in the stock price appreciation.

As an investor, what you need to keep your eye on is whether Tesla is staying on track to achieve huge Model 3 deliveries. Will it have enough money through a successful equity raise? Is the factory coming together fast enough for late 2017 production? Is autopilot on track to develop into autonomous driving in a few years? Are we going to see suitable gross margins for producing S, X and Model 3? If all these issues remain satisfactory, they we're on track to exceed $300 before the end of 2017, and possibly a lot sooner. That's a big challenge, but I personally feel that Musk and his team are up to that challenge.

Hi
Really appreciate your input

Thanks

 

[Papafox]

As I said yesterday, watch the number of shares available to short today to guide your trading, and with more than 200,000 shares available at IB, the shorts went to work and took maximum advantage of them today. They were supported by a macro market that dropped and by large quantities of FUD.

The good news is that all that red you see in the chart above has little to do with Tesla the company. Rather, we're seeing various forms of negative effect on the stock price as short shares come available again and various forms of manipulation occur right before the Q3 delivery date. Combine unwarranted drop in stock price with great potential for the SP next week and you have a very attractive opportunity for additional investing if you have some dry ammo.

The reason I continue to be bullish on the 3rd quarter delivery numbers is not only because the calculations suggest we'll see plenty of cars delivered, but I also believe that Elon Musk is really focused on making the 3rd quarter a smashing success so that both the SCTY merger and the upcoming capital raise are seen in the very best light. Musk seldom has his eye carefully focused on the stock price, but he does right now, and we are highly likely to benefit from this unique set of priorities at Tesla.

What to expect for Friday? Certainly the number of shares available to short will again be a factor, so be aware on Friday morning. It's entirely possible that we could start in the red, but I would be very surprised if we don't have a brisk climb into the green at some point. There are just too many Tesla longs who want to add shares before the weekend, and in case you haven't noticed, there's a sale on Tesla shares at the moment. If you bought your shares months ago or even Monday, don't fret. Most likely the time between Oct 1 and a week after the Q3 ER will be a very good time for this stock.

Conditions:
* Dow down 196 (1.07%)
* NASDAQ down 49 (0.99%)
* TSLA 200.70, down 5.57 (2.70%)
* TSLA volume 2.7M shares
* SCTY 19.68, down 0.80 (3.91%)

 

[ev-enthusiast]

Papa, already looking forward to today's edition of your stock price chart musings. Today's chart is for sure looking interesting!

 

[bdy0627]

I've been investing in TSLA for about a year and a half and I just wanted to say that these analyses are terrific. So many threads fill up with BS and go off on tangents. Thanks for spending the time to do this!