Papafox's Daily TSLA Trading Charts

[Papafox]

If preliminary numbers from Fidelity are correct, the short sellers may have drawn down more than 400,000 shares from that brokerage alone today, and look at how little they have to show for their efforts.
Consider:
* The day's goal of the shorts seemed to be to push the stock below 190 and keep it below. They failed (miserably)
* 98,000 shares were sold in the first minute alone. This is a new tactic
* The day's trading is full of the steep downward dips followed by immediate near-recoveries. This is a classic short-selling fingerprint
* A hugely-important change in TSLA trading has developed. Rather than seeing the typical slow descent of stock price in the low-volume afternoon hours, we are much more likely to see a slow rise in SP during those same hours.These slow rises tend to undo all the work the shorts carefully laid earlier in the day.
* I can count at least three efforts to cap the stock price as it rose in the afternoon: one inverted plateau around 2:45 pm, a longer one from about 2:50 pm to 3:20pm, and a long one for the final 35 minutes of the day. All except the final capping efforts were defeated.

Let's see if the short numbers stand. If they do and shorts introduced hundreds of thousands of shares with this little to show for their efforts, today will go down as a substantial defeat for the shorts and a confirmation that the game has changed since Nov 17.

Conditions:
* Dow up 65 (0.33%)
* NASDAQ up 24 (0.44%)
* TSLA 192.23, down 0.92 (0.48%)
* TSLA volume 3.1M shares
* Oil 49.89, down 1.04 (2.04%)

 

[Papafox]

Shortanalytics.com says that 40% of trading today (Thursday) was by the shorts. That number strikes me as somewhat low. Certainly that percentage could absorb 500,000 or more shares sold short today, but I'm beginning to wonder about how useful their number is. Perhaps it indicates that we didn't see much in the way of shorts covering today.

 

[Papafox]

OK, even though we saw a drawdown of more than 400,000 short shares today at Fidelity, it is entirely possible that one or two big shorts went long on Wednesday when they saw the stock ready to stream upward despite their efforts. I suspect they closed their morning short positions and went long, just as they had on Monday. What has baffled me is the size of that 47,000 and the 45,000 share buys in early afternoon. This looked similar to the two 30,000+ share purchases on Monday. If the shares purchased for about $189 and 191 and then sold during the first minute of trading on Thursday for an average of about $192, that's nearly $200,000 profit for moving 92,000 shares. Not bad for a day's work. This selling by a "long" would of course distort the numbers at shortanalytics.com . My hunch is that because both Tuesday or Thursday were days with lots of apparent shorting but little price drop by the end of the day, the 60% long number for both of these days is consistent with shorts going long on Monday and Wednesday when they couldn't hold the stock back and then carrying shares into the next day for sale that morning. If it makes money, why not change roles for the day? All of the pieces of the puzzle actually fit together with this scenario.

 

[Papafox]

As I mentioned in the short-term trading thread, TSLA gained more than $10 this week and it looks like shorts threw more than a million additional shares at trying to control the rise. Usually some black swan or successful FUD campaign comes along to temper a week's trading, but it never happened and the shorts had a bad week with TSLA. If next week is this successful for TSLA longs, TSLA will rise above the 50 dma and set itself up to rise higher. For this reason, expect to see a battle on Monday morning if TSLA tries to top 194.50 and hold it.

According to @vgrinshpun , shorts drew down 254,000 short shares this morning and depleted the Fidelity supply of shares. The first order of business was to bring TSLA from green to red, and this transition took place dramatically at about 10:20 am today when more than 48,000 shares were sold over a 3 minute period. From then on, it was a game of "bop the mole" and push TSLA down every time it appeared ready to go green again. Volume of 2.7M shares was light, which worked in the best interest of the shorts today. Nonetheless, this was not a good week for their side. With Nov 30 short interest data showing more than 35M TSLA short shares outstanding, the spring is being compressed mighty tightly right now.

Conditions:
* Dow up 142 (0.72%)
* NASDAQ up 27 (0.50%)
* TSLA 192.18, down 0.11 (0.06%)
* TSLA volume 2.71M shares
* Oil 51.43, up 0.59 (1.16%)

 

[neroden]

I expect the "spring" to compress more. Schwab isn't borrowing my shares yet. We have had the short interest increase to levels where Schwab was paying 4%, three separate times. I expect short interest to go back to that level before it unwinds. Though that may just be wishful thinking.

 

[Papafox]

Today was a classic short manipulation day. TSLA started with a 41,000 shares being sold in the first minute. Buyers were there all the same, even if the NASDAQ was sagging, and TSLA climbed to 194 before settling around 193. Take a look at the chart and it is apparent someone was keeping the stock from venturing much above 193 for most of the day. The final hour of the day is where much of the action comes lately, but instead of buyers bidding TSLA up, shorts were able to pull it down on very low volume. I think they were shooting for bringing TSLA into the red slightly, but it didn't work out because 22,000 buyers showed up in the final minute to keep us in the green. Nonetheless, it's a full house of mandatory morning dip, prolonged capping, and a descent into closing. Vgrinshpun showed about a quarter million short shares drawn from Fidelity in the early morning hours, so the shorts are still willing to pony up and stay in the game. Interest rose to 3% today, though, so hints are there that the supply of short shares are going to become more expensive to borrow in the near future.

Overall, TSLA did ok considering the obvious short selling efforts and the down day for the NASDAQ. Shortanalytics.com reported that shorts only accounted for 36% of TSLA trading today.

Conditions:
* Dow up 40 (0.20%)
* NASDAQ down 32 (0.59%)
* TSLA 192.43, up 0.25
* TSLA volume 2.4M shares
* Oil 52.81, down 0.02 (0.04%)

 

[3Victoria]

36% ... Does that mean that we had longs selling, or is the difference reflected in the rise in the SP?

 

[Papafox]

36% ... Does that mean that we had longs selling, or is the difference reflected in the rise in the SP?

For various reasons, there are always a reasonable number of longs buying and selling every day. I'd say with evidence of short-selling (morning dip, capping at 193, a quarter million short shares drawn down at Fidelity in the morning, etc.) the low short percentage is a pretty good indication that there wasn't much covering by shorts. Thus, we can expect the number of short shares held to be growing, which is confirmed by Fidelity's raising its lending rate to 3% today.

Keep in mind that since shortanalytics.com tracks both sides of a trade (I believe), in theory shorts could be doing all the selling if their number is 50% because the other 50% would be longs buying. It never works out that way, there is ALWAYS a mix of longs and shorts both as buyers and sellers, but with 36% short activity, in theory they could have done 72% of the selling today (again, this number is theoretical and of course too high).

 

[Papafox]

Today we saw TSLA rally big and break 200 before sliding back to close above 198. This movement took place on a very good day for the broader indexes. No particular news in the morning is suspected of sparking the rally.

A few signposts:
* A robust 73,000+ shares traded hands in the first full minute of market trading but price changed little
* Fidelity showed a drawdown of 60,000 shares in the morning and zero available shares to short. IB is low on shares to short too. Let us monitor the numbers going into tomorrow because available shares to short is a pertinent number for the day's trading.
* www.shortanalytics.com says shorts comprised only 38% of TSLA trading today. This number implies that covering by shorts was minimal
* 50 Day moving average was crossed today, as was the upper bollinger band. Welcome mat officially laid out for technically-based investors

Some TMC members suggested Elon's invite to the Trump tech meeting tomorrow sparked the rally. Electrek.co mentioned Google's dropping auto making as a part of their autonomous driving goals as a possible catalyst, and I put forward the theory that the big dog investors who had been short selling in huge blocks of 20,000-30,000 shares about twice on applicable mornings had today switched to being longs (in a similar fashion as I've observed on two other occasions). Take your pick of which catalyst you wish for explaining the jump upwards.

Once again, there are indications that short-sellers put up some resistance to today's rally but were overwhelmed. We are seeing more and more successful trading days without the shorts in control, ever since the Nov17 SCTY merger date.

Conditions:
* Dow up 114 (0.58%)
* NASDAQ up 51 (0.95%)
* TSLA 198.15, up 5.72 2.97%)
* TSLA volume 6.8M shares
* Oil 52.46, down 0.37 (0.7%)
* News: Elon Musk meeting with Trump at tech meeting in N.Y. tomorrow

 

[GoTslaGo]

View attachment 205651
Today we saw TSLA rally big and break 200 before sliding back to close above 198. This movement took place on a very good day for the broader indexes. No particular news in the morning is suspected of sparking the rally.

A few signposts:
* A robust 73,000+ shares traded hands in the first full minute of market trading but price changed little
* Fidelity showed a drawdown of 60,000 shares in the morning and zero available shares to short. IB is low on shares to short too. Let us monitor the numbers going into tomorrow because available shares to short is a pertinent number for the day's trading.
* www.shortanalytics.com says shorts comprised only 38% of TSLA trading today. This number implies that covering by shorts was minimal
* 50 Day moving average was crossed today, as was the upper bollinger band. Welcome mat officially laid out for technically-based investors

Some TMC members suggested Elon's invite to the Trump tech meeting tomorrow sparked the rally. Electrek.co mentioned Google's dropping auto making as a part of their autonomous driving goals as a possible catalyst, and I put forward the theory that the big dog investors who had been short selling in huge blocks of 20,000-30,000 shares about twice on applicable mornings had today switched to being longs (in a similar fashion as I've observed on two other occasions). Take your pick of which catalyst you wish for explaining the jump upwards.

Once again, there are indications that short-sellers put up some resistance to today's rally but were overwhelmed. We are seeing more and more successful trading days without the shorts in control, ever since the Nov17 SCTY merger date.

Conditions:
* Dow up 114 (0.58%)
* NASDAQ up 51 (0.95%)
* TSLA 198.15, up 5.72 2.97%)
* TSLA volume 6.8M shares
* Oil 52.46, down 0.37 (0.7%)
* News: Elon Musk meeting with Trump at tech meeting in N.Y. tomorrow

Love the volume!

 

[Papafox]

Today the shorts drew down about 62,000 shares from Fidelity and used some of them in their mandatory morning dip. The game has changed, though, and the longs no longer get spooked so easily. TSLA rose to nearly 203 and looked on track to closing above 200 when the feds announced the expected rate hike. The broader markets jumped around but ended up closing about 1/2 of a percent lower than they traded at time of announcement. TSLA, on the other hand, closed more than 2% lower.

Here's a chart of the NASDAQ today.

The power of the shorts to manipulate has been scaled back significantly since the SCTY merger, but there are times when they can still exert their will and a quick descent into close is one of those times. Basically, TSLA was dropping because the broader markets were puzzled how to react to the rate hike, and this ambiguity allowed the TSLA shorts to define the situation as SOMETHING BAD and push the SP down. Longs for the most part just sat back and watched, not willing to buy until an uptrend reestablished itself. So, longs have a way to go in order to become prepared to buy towards the end of the day if the shorts go out of their way to offer a discount. Nonetheless, TSLA gained a bit today and is solidifying its hold on the upper 190s before heading higher. A bad macro day tomorrow could be a factor, though.

Conditions:
* Dow down 119
* NASDAQ down 27
* TSLA 198.69, up 0.54
* TSLA volume 4.14M shares
* Oil 50.77, down 2.21 (4.14%)

 

[Papafox]

Shortanalytics.com says shorts made up only 36% of the trading today. I'm of the opinion that short-selling was the main reason why Tesla fell so abruptly after 2:45pm, much faster than the general market. On the other hand, 36% is quite low and suggests a lack of shorts covering today.

The missing percentages in the conditions today are as follows:
Conditions:
* Dow down 119 (0.60%)
* NASDAQ down 27 (0.50%)
* TSLA 198.69, up 0.54 (0.27%)
* TSLA volume 4.14M shares
* Oil 50.77, down 2.21 (4.14%)

 

[Papafox]

Today was a really great opportunity to assess the strengths and weaknesses of manipulations performed by the shorts. It was an up day for the broader markets. The mandatory morning dip was minor, something the longs could easily overrule, which they did. Rather than capping, we saw selling in blocks big enough to bring the stock price from green down into the red. I count 17 transitions between the two colors today. TSLA would climb back into the green and another sale would bring it down again. Thus, on light volume days with no real oomph behind TSLA, the shorts can still have some influence on the trading. The big advantage the shorts still hold is in the late afternoon when volume gets really light, a selling streak can make quite a difference in stock price during the final hour of trading. About an hour before the end of trading, I predicted that the shorts would try to bring TSLA to 197.99 or below. They managed 197.58 and really low volume. It was a walk in the park today for them. Shorts do not at the moment have access to the large banks of shares they did weeks ago, so they must be frugal with their manipulations. Unfortunately, until longs start anticipating the late afternoon attempts at dips and start recognizing these dips for what they are (manipulation rather than a response to actual weakness in the stock), the afternoon dips remain a weakness for longs in TSLA.

Conditions:
* Dow up 60 (0.30%)
* NASDAQ up 20 (0.37%)
* TSLA 197.58, down 1.11 (0.56%)
* TSLA volume 3.2M shares
* Oil 51.12, up 0.22 ((0.43%)

 

[Papafox]

It all came together today. we saw 117,000 shares trade hands in the first minute, but vgrinshpun reports that short drawdown at Fidelity was quite low this morning, so we should look elsewhere for our explanation. No capping activity is visible. It looks like around 1pm we had the typical "falling off a cliff going into the afternoon" swan dive, but it was quickly overruled by buyers. How significant is today's climb? Take a look at the next chart.

Since August, TSLA has been on a downtrend. If you connect the peaks with a line it intercepts today's date at about 190, and as you can see, TSLA has climbed significantly above that amount. An up Friday, particularly with a nice rise into the closing, is a good clue that Monday's open could be quite positive.

Another indication that TSLA has done something significant is the 50 day moving average. This has been an elusive target for quite some time, but you can see that it too has been thoroughly vanquished.

Here's my take on why we saw our beginning of a break-out today:
* TSLA had been trading in the 180-195ish region from late October until just days ago. Lots of support from long buyers existed at 180, so we never stayed below that level, and every time we got high enough to approach the 50 dma, Activities by the shorts or other downdrafts pulled TSLA down. I remember the week when a combination short attack and FUD festival pulled us down one day, and a sector rebalancing pulled TSLA down another day that week. So, we have happened to have two weeks in a row without substantial negative catalysts.
* The shorts have been weaker ever since the SCTY merger on Nov 17. Their morning dips are smaller and their capping efforts are much more easily broken. Only the late afternoon descent on low volume remained a particularly potent tool. A primary reason for the weakness is that the shares held by shorts are at historical highs, interest rates are creeping up for borrowing, fewer shares are available each morning for shorting, and many of the techniques used by shorts only are profitable during a descent of the stock price. Many techniques only work with low volume, and volume is picking up as TSLA crosses these important technical milestones.
* The broader markets are way up, still enjoying their Trump Bump
* Elon's being named to Trump's advisory council is a positive. There have been enough positives in Tesla's news to cause the news cycle to take a break from the predominantly negative spin on anything having to do with Tesla.

What can we expect ahead?
* A good Monday open unless big macro or TSLA news interferes
* Some shorts starting to cover as TSLA rises. Yesterday, shorts were only about 38% of trading. When we see that number rising on days without substantial drawdown of shares to short, we can assume covering is taking place
* Shorts being far less capable in their tactics as TSLA enters an uptrend
* Two weeks from Monday we could learn Q4 delivery numbers, a month after that we can hear Q4 ER and 2017 guidance. If they're good they could be mega-catalysts.

Enjoy your weekend. The clouds are clearing and light is shining through again.

Conditions:
* Dow down 8.53 (0.04%)
* NASDAQ down 20 (0.36%)
* TSLA 202.49, up 4.91 (2.49%)
* TSLA volume 3.8M shares
* Oil 52.03, up 1.13 (2.22%)

 

[Papafox]

Here's a TSLA chart with the 200 day moving average.Looks like it is presently just a shade under 215.

What's interesting is to see the early October rise of TSLA to the 200 dma and then a rapid descent. Yep, that was the shorts at work, capping at 215 to keep TSLA from exceeding the 200 dma and then giving a push down. On Q3 ER day, TSLA rose to nearly 215 before selling cause it to decrease rapidly the very first day of trading after the Q4 ER.

 

[Papafox]

Today had the potential for being a noticeably positive day for TSLA. For this reason, the shorts drew down 187,000 shares from Fidelity and no doubt plenty from elsewhere as well with the aim of minimizing the damage. Despite 57,000 shares trading hands the first minute, TSLA recovered from the mandatory morning dip and rise into the green. Such a mid-morning reversal from red to green is often a signal for buyers to jump in, but the shorts contained the damage by capping. At this point, and throughout most the day, shorts appeared to be capping in the vicinity of 204. A series of ups and downs led downhill from about 1:30pm until close. Most of the trading today, from the deep dips and quick near recoveries of the morning to the valleys and hills of the remainder of the day, had the appearance of being affected by short-selling.

Shortanalytics.com shows the shorts doing 51% of total TSLA trading today. This is lower than the readings from last week but fairly normal for a day that closes not much up and not much down. Because there were serious indications of short-selling today, I would venture that short covering was minimal today with the 51% number.

I'd call today a draw for shorts vs. longs because even though the shorts prevented what could have been a nice up day for TSLA, they spent a good amount of ammo just trying to hold the stock price near the opening amount. What we want to look for is the available shares to short and the interest rate. If interest rate goes up and available shares to short become small this week, then good things can happen for TSLA longs.

Also, remember that we are just two weeks away from Q4 delivery numbers. I suspect we'll see some price rise as we get closer to year end.

Conditions:
* Dow up 40 (0.20%)
* NASDAQ up 20 (0.37%)
* TSLA 202.73, up 0.24 (0.12%)
* TSLA volume3.5M shares
* Oil 52.11, down 0.01 (0.02%)
* News: One of Mario's rental Teslas had a major accident in Estonia today, but because of the extreme safety designed into the Model S, both occupants of the car should be ok. The other vehicle was a giant, Russian-built crane.

 

[3Victoria]

PapaFox -- Thanks for this, again. I wonder if it would be useful to not note the shorting activity and interest rate?

Thanks again!

 

[Papafox]

PapaFox -- Thanks for this, again. I wonder if it would be useful to not note the shorting activity and interest rate?

Thanks again!

Yeah, those might be good numbers to use for reference and have them in one place. The www.shortanalytics.com numbers normally come out after I have already posted, but interest rate, drawdown at Fidelity, and shares available at that time might be good to record here. Thanks for the idea.

 

[Papafox]

By popular demand, here are the 50 day ma (yellow), 100 day ma (orange) and 200 day ma (green) for TSLA.

TSLA has handily dispatched the 50 dma on the 13th and 100 dma today, but I suspect the 200 dma is going to be a tougher nut to crack. Fortunately, within 2 weeks we have the Q4 delivery numbers and the gigafactory event to give the stock a boost.

Yesterday, the shorts bought themselves some time by putting in a major effort to contain a TSLA breakout. If today had been a negative day for Tesla news or for the broader markets, their efforts would have paid off, but as you can see, today TSLA soared with help from a strong broader market. The morning dip lasted only a couple minutes, and the most noticeable short activity was the appearance of capping activity at various levels close to 208. This capping activity and the lack of an end-of-the-day slump is significant because it shows that 1) the 208 cap did not hold, and 2) the big dog shorts who were capping at around 208 may lose money on the effort. Unless TSLA descends a few dollars below 208 and stays there for a while, it will be difficult for the capping shorts to profit from this exercise. Moreover, if TSLA continues to climb, then the shorts have to decide to exit with a loss or gamble with a longer hold period during an upturn for the stock. If the manipulators get burned enough times, they'll refrain from regular efforts. If they refrain from regular efforts, TSLA stock will do significantly better.

The news cycle for Tesla remains relatively benign, with the exception of a UBC note reproduced in a Wall Street Journal blog that suggests big losses for TSLA in 2017 and 2018. One has to wonder how these analysts could come up with automotive revenues with the Model 3 ramp up uncertain and Tesla Energy revenues with exponential growth about to take off in early 2017. Perhaps the note was a gift to some clients who were short and needed help getting out.

Conditions:
Dow up 92 (0.46%)
NASDAQ up 27 (0.49%)
TSLA 208.79, up 6.06 (2.99%)
TSLA volume4.7M shares
Oil: 53.51 up 0.45 (0.85%)
Fidelity short lending rate: 2.50%
Fidelity morning short activity: 168,000 returned, 102,000 drawdown

 

[Papafox]

Today was a gain consolidation day with lots of volume. Trading began with over 80,000 shares traded in the first minute. The day's high, reached 7 minutes later, included 62,000+ transactions that minute, followed by more than 50,000 transactions the following minute. With volumes such as this, the shorts simply lack the horsepower to control the stock price. Alas, as the afternoon dragged on and it became clear that TSLA was settling down rather than revving up, volume decreased to the point where shorts could at last exert some downward pressure on the stock. Once the SP reached about 207.75, the longs started buying again, and that's about as low as she went.

The fairly typical short percentage for today suggests a reasonable amount of activity selling and buying. With lending percentage at Fidelity remaining constant at 2.5%, this suggests a possible balance between short selling and short covering at the moment. On a consolidation day such as today, some traders are taking profits after the long climb. It's a normal event. It may stretch into tomorrow, as well, but at some point the uptrend is likely to catch its second wind and resume, provided the macro markets are not too negative. If volume falls low in the afternoon, the shorts take over and push the price down. Right now, volume is the friend of the longs.

Conditions:
* Dow down 33 (0.16%)
* NASDAQ down 13 (0.23%)
* TSLA 207.70, down 1.09 (0.52%)
* TSLA volume 5.1M shares
* Oil 52.47, down 0.02 (0.04%)
* Short's percentage of transactions today: 52% (rather typical for a fairly neutral day)