Today was indeed one of high anticipation as multiple positives lined up for Tesla. Unfortunately, much of the excitement was over soon after market open as the NASDAQ began a slow downward movement and no stories came forward to strongly reinforce views that Q2 P&D will be quite positive. Volume was rather light today at 8 million shares, suggesting that neither the shorts nor the longs were changing their positions much and no big players were adding shares. What is encouraging, however, was the big near vertical run upwards around 10am and the two upward spikes in after-hours trading. I see there being continued fear of missing the big run upwards (both by shorts and longs) and when some good news arrives (P&D report, anyone?) this week, I think there will be an immediate positive response to the news.
Although the NASDAQ lost ground for most of the day, it still closed up 1.06%.
Here's your roundup of today's news:
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Jeff Osborne, research analyst at Cowen explains to CNBC why he has given Tesla the lowest price target on the street
* Phil LeBeau on CNBC says why Colin Langan of UBS has a $160 price target (because 2nd half of 2019 will be harder with fewer tax credits and a depleted delivery queue). Listening to LeBeau's language is interesting because he said the street now expects Tesla to hit its 90,000 - 100,000 delivery target (thereby suggesting a higher delivery number within the range is no big deal).
*
Lucid Motors has hired former Tesla production chief Peter Hochholdinger
* JMP Securities analyst Joseph Osha reiterated a Market Outperform rating and $347.00 price target on Tesla. It was hard to find even an article on JMP Securities on the internet today, much yet seeing him appear on CNBC.
*
Luvb2b's Q2 financial estimates are posted on TMC and is looking for a small non-GAAP loss from Q2. No doubt Luvb2b will update the spreadsheet when the actual Q2 delivery numbers and mix are known.
* Perhaps the most interesting story is
this one on Yahoo that suggests what the stock price will do with different delivery numbers.
In a nutshell, the mainstream media was very busy today reminding investors that a Tesla executive left and putting the spotlight on analysts who speculate that the second half of 2019 will not go well for Tesla. Meanwhile, they're all but assuming that Tesla will hit its 90,000 - 100,000 vehicles delivery goal for Q2 (but not giving the company much credit for this feat). Notice too how the wording is changing. It's not about reaching 90,000 any more. The media is suggesting that falling anywhere within the 90K to 100K guidance is pretty ho hum because of greater problems ahead. It's the old game of move the goalposts as Tesla seems poised to achieve a very important goal. Moreover, none of the analysts take notice of a rather large factory being built in Shanghai that will be spitting out Tesla Model 3s at an ever increasing rate come early 2020 other than mentioning there's debt associated with that factory.
As a courtesy, let me remind you of a few reasons why 2nd half of 2019 looks pretty good for Tesla
* Seasonality: Q3 and Q4 are historically good months for EV sales. Q1 is always the slowest
* Costs: Every month Tesla finds ways to produce cars less expensively. This trend will continue.
* Battery cells: We should see GF1 grow from 24GWh of battery cells per year to 35GWh. This expansion will not only lower the cost of batteries but will also enable greater revenues as LR M3s are not constrained in numbers and Tesla Energy finds sufficient cells available to start chipping away at some of that backlog in orders
* Ravens: Model S and X deliveries should increase because their battery cells are not restricted and because Q3 will be the first full quarter when the Raven upgrades of these two vehicles are available for the full quarter.
* Demand: More Model 3s in driveways yields more test drives, which equates to more orders. Further, when customers visit a Tesla store to drive a Model 3, they'll be checking out Models S and X as well. I've been in a few stores lately and have watched how the customers come for a Model 3 but spend a good amount of time wondering if they can pull off an S or X. We now have enough Model 3s in the wild to rev up organic demand.
* Nice margin increase when full feature set of full autonomy software is released some time in Q4. Expect to see a nice increase in orders for full autonomous driving software when the feature set is available, not because the vehicle is capable of driving itself without intervention (it won't be) but because the convenience of using these features will become too attractive for many owners to pass up. Adding software to hardware-enabled vehicles is normally nearly 100% gross margin, but remember that the computer board will need to be upgraded in order to realize the 20X increase in computation speeds. Analysts should start giving Tesla some credit for its self-driving program by then. Personally, I very much anticipate this day.
Why aren't analysts and the mainstream media seeing these advantages to the 2nd half of 2019? The short answer is that they don't spend enough time studying Tesla to understand what's happening (although a few analysts and media outlets clearly have a bias against the company), and many rely too heavily on TSLAQ shorts for their story ideas and views of the company.
Shorts were tagged with 34% of TSLA selling today. Yep, it's best not to stand in front of a steamroller
Looking at Dusaniwsky's updated graph, you can see that a large part of the downward pressure on the stock price in the final 10 days of May was from rapidly-growing short interest (the blue line on graph). We've seen a small unwinding of the short interest in June so far, but with every run higher in the stock price, we see additional canopies blossoming as shorts bail from their positions.
Looking at the tech chart, you can see that today's trading pulled TSLA above the near-horizontal consolidation line and gives the stock some opportunity to begin the march up in price. Also notice that even though the mid-bollinger band continues to bend upward, the upper and lower BBs are angling inward, due to the relatively small daily changes in stock price.
We should see Tesla release the Q2 Production and Delivery report either Tuesday or Wednesday. Wednesday will be a short trading day. I expect a nice climb when the production and delivery numbers are announced. It gets complicated after that. Friday, July 5, is the most likely day for manipulations since the big dog investors are still in the Hamptons for the 4 day weekend. Record delivery numbers don't necessarily mean the financials will be great in Q2, however, primarily because of fewer higher-margin S and X deliveries. What would really light the fuse would be any mention of profits in the P&D report. It's been done once before to my knowledge, but don't hold your breath.
Conditions:
* Dow up 117 (0.44%)
* NASDAQ up 85 (1.06%)
* TSLA 227.17, up 3.71 (1.66%)
* TSLA volume 8.0M shares
* Oil 58.63
* Percent of TSLA selling tagged to shorts: 34%