Poll : When will Waymo cover top 50 cities in US ?

[diplomat33]

Given that robotaxis do not need to be able to drive everywhere - only within a limited territory each - it's curious that Waymo cannot get their vehicles to operate in multiple cities now. That implies, to me, that their approach does not currently scale even to the level of a single city.

Exactly what I’ve been saying for a while which Waymo fans dismiss as blasphemy.

I believe Waymo could probably deploy like 10,000 robotaxis with safety drivers in 20 cities if they just wanted to be like "Look at us! We can scale!" And Tesla fanbois would probably be impressed. But scaling if you are not ready yet, would be a huge mistake. And successfully scaling a robotaxi service essentially requires 3 key ingredients: safety, profitability and convenience. Scaling a robotaxi service before you solve those 3 things is a recipe for failure. I think Waymo understands this. That is why Waymo is focused on safety and convenience before scaling:

Waymo: "Our current focus is really continuing to develop a safe and convenient experience for all of our riders."

Now, we can discuss whether we think Waymo is being too slow to scale. Maybe they are. But the bottom line is that Waymo is committed to making sure their robotaxi service meets their benchmarks of safety and convenience first before they scale which is a wise approach.

 

[EVNow]

Tesla fanbois

If you don’t want want to talk to Tesla fans you shouldn’t be here. You can go to Waymo forum … oh wait, there isn’t one

But scaling if you are not ready yet, would be a huge mistake. And successfully scaling a robotaxi service essentially requires 3 key ingredients: safety, profitability and convenience. Scaling a robotaxi service before you solve those 3 things is a recipe for failure. I think Waymo understands this. That is why Waymo is focused on safety and convenience before scaling:

So, they need to be profitable before they scale

[/QUOTE] Now, we can discuss whether we think Waymo is being too slow to scale. [/QUOTE]
Nothing to discuss here - it’s a foregone conclusion.

The basic question is does Waymo have a viable technology that can scale. I see no evidence of it, though Waymo fanbois (your deregatory term, not mine) are mighty impressed with running around in a small strip of Chandler.

 

[diplomat33]

If you don’t want want to talk to Tesla fans you shouldn’t be here. You can go to Waymo forum … oh wait, there isn’t one

No need to be snarky. Of course, I want to talk to Tesla fans. I am on this forum because I am a Tesla fan and I love the car. I just have a different opinion on some things. I happen to also like Waymo too for different reasons.

Nothing to discuss here - it’s a foregone conclusion.

The basic question is does Waymo have a viable technology that can scale. I see no evidence of it, though Waymo fanbois (your deregatory term, not mine) are mighty impressed with running around in a small strip of Chandler.

That's just your opinion, one that I don't share. I think Waymo has viable tech that will scale, it is only a matter of time. But if it is already a foregone conclusion in your mind that Waymo can't scale, why did you even start this thread? And why start a thread and a poll on when Waymo will scale to 50 cities if you won't accept any opinions other than yours?

 

[Bladerskb]

The basic question is does Waymo have a viable technology that can scale. I see no evidence of it, though Waymo fanbois (your deregatory term, not mine) are mighty impressed with running around in a small strip of Chandler.

The basic question is does Tesla have a viable technology that can reach L4. I see no evidence of it, though Tesla fans are mighty impressed with running around the country with a L2 system that requires a safety disengagement every couple miles.

 

[diplomat33]

So, they need to be profitable before they scale

You are missing or ignoring my point. I said that any successful robotaxi service needs safety, profitability and convenience and it would be a bad idea to scale if you don't have these three things. I think that is a very reasonable position. I doubt anyone would argue that you should scale a robotaxi service that isn't safe or that isn't profitable or that isn't convenient.

 

[StealthLSU]

Well even the question of 50 cities is not well defined.

If it just means a presence in the city with a very small footprint only around downtown. I did 2025-2030.

If it actually means fully in the city (can do highways and suburbs and such), then I would pick after 2030

 

[TresLA]

You haven't seen me drive . I'm guessing you meant human driven taxi's but I couldn't resist

Ha! This is true. My brake pads are hardly used anymore (I use roll mode and generally time my slowdowns to only require and gentle tap at the end), but when it rains, I do love pushing into a power slide in my RWD Model 3 (when no one else is around of course).

 

[EVNow]

You are missing or ignoring my point. I said that any successful robotaxi service needs safety, profitability and convenience and it would be a bad idea to scale if you don't have these three things. I think that is a very reasonable position. I doubt anyone would argue that you should scale a robotaxi service that isn't safe or that isn't profitable or that isn't convenient.

My point is how do you get profitable before you scale ? You can’t. That is not how you commercialize technology.

In a business you make pricing plans to be profitable at a particular volume and scale to reach that volume. You don’t wait to be profitable before profitability.

Besides, for ten years Waymo has been losing money, what’s a few billions more. Google can always sell more of our data ignoring privacy concerns to make up.

 

[EVNow]

No need to be snarky.

I won’t be if you don’t use derogatory words for Tesla fans in a Tesla forum. If you try this in a -say- BMW forum, you will be banned in 2 minutes as a troll.

https://whirlpool.net.au/wiki/fanboi

fanboi or fanbois

1. Derogatory. A person with an irrational attachment to a particular item or brand name, and an equally irrational dislike for competing brands or items. This behaviour is often seen during discussion threads pertaining to ISPs, computer hardware or motor vehicles.

2. A person who has a strong dislike of a paticular item or brand name may incorrectly refer to another who uses that product as a fanboi.

 

[diplomat33]

My point is how do you get profitable before you scale ? You can’t. That is not how you commercialize technology.

In a business you make pricing plans to be profitable at a particular volume and scale to reach that volume. You don’t wait to be profitable before profitability.

Waymo is not yet profitable at low volume. So if they scale now, they would just lose even more money and go bankrupt. Waymo will improve FSD to the point where they don't need safety drivers at all anymore and then they can be profitable at low volume and then scale from there.

Besides, for ten years Waymo has been losing money, what’s a few billions more. Google can always sell more of our data ignoring privacy concerns to make up.

Most companies lose money for a several years at first. I think Amazon lost money for years in the beginning. Tesla also lost a lot money for years until they finally made a profit. In fact, we know Tesla was close to bankruptcy.

 

[diplomat33]

I won’t be if you don’t use derogatory words for Tesla fans in a Tesla forum. If you try this in a -say- BMW forum, you will be banned in 2 minutes as a troll.

https://whirlpool.net.au/wiki/fanboi

fanboi or fanbois

1. Derogatory. A person with an irrational attachment to a particular item or brand name, and an equally irrational dislike for competing brands or items. This behaviour is often seen during discussion threads pertaining to ISPs, computer hardware or motor vehicles.

2. A person who has a strong dislike of a paticular item or brand name may incorrectly refer to another who uses that product as a fanboi.

I simply said that Tesla fanbois would be impressed if Waymo did scale since they are always asking why Waymo can't scale. It was not meant as an insult. But fine, I will refrain from using the term in the future if you abstain from calling me a Waymo fanboi.

 

[okcazure]

Google can always sell more of our data ignoring privacy concerns to make up.

You've got that right!

 

[EVNow]

I simply said that Tesla fanbois would be impressed if Waymo did scale since they are always asking why Waymo can't scale. It was not meant as an insult. But fine, I will refrain from using the term in the future if you abstain from calling me a Waymo fanboi.

Whatever happened to your diplomatic language ?

You can’t go RNC, call Republicans by a derogatory word and say it was not meant as an insult and then ask them not to use that word for you first.

 

[EVNow]

Coming back to topic, I think Waymo will be shutdown before they expand to all 50 metros - so, I selected never.

There is a limit to even Google’s deep pockets.

Ofcourse the other option would be to spin it off and let stupid money chase robotaxi profits like Intel is doing.

 

[diplomat33]

Whatever happened to your diplomatic language ?

I try. But sometimes I slip.

You can’t go RNC, call Republicans by a derogatory word and say it was not meant as an insult and then ask them not to use that word for you first.

Ok, I get it. Sorry.

 

[voyager]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1484209976054849543

 

[diplomat33]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1484209976054849543

The article makes the point that Waymo may just be using NYC to learn about edge cases to improve the Waymo Driver and may never deploy a ride-hailing service in NYC. That seems unlikely to me. For one, NYC is a very profitable area for ride-hailing so it would not make sense for a robotaxi service like Waymo to ignore it. And, the whole point of Waymo's business model is to scale profitable autonomous ride-hailing. So once the Waymo Driver is good enough in an area, Waymo would want to deploy a ride-hailing service there. If they don't deploy a public service in NYC after getting all that edge case data, where would they deploy?

In terms of when Waymo might deploy an autonomous ride-hailing service in NYC, it might depend a lot on NYC regulations. The city council has some strict testing rules. They seem to be very wary of autonomous vehicles. So I suspect it may take time to convince them to allow a public ride-hailing service. Obviously, Mapping should not take that long. But deployment will depend on how good the Waymo Driver gets in NYC driving. Waymo is very deliberate and methodical about making sure their autonomous driving is safe before deployment. My guess is that Waymo will probably launch an "early rider" program in NYC in 2023.

Considering the challenges of driving in NYC (it is considered one of the most difficult places to drive), I think it will be an important milestone in the development of the Waymo Driver, when we see that it is able to drive safely in NYC. It will mean that the Waymo Driver is really good at dense urban driving. One aspect of driving in NYC is that you have to deal with congested traffic and learn when to be assertive to get where you are going. So being able to drive in NYC should really help the Waymo Driver develop those assertive driving skills that humans have. It is probably a big reason why Waymo picked NYC as a testing area. Mobileye recently showed off a "zero intervention" drive in NYC to showcase the capabilities of their autonomous driving. Mobileye made the case that being able to safely drive autonomously in NYC is a big deal in terms of how good your autonomous driving is. Mobileye has also made that argument that AVs will need to be assertive while also being safe.

 

[EVNow]

In terms of when Waymo might deploy an autonomous ride-hailing service in NYC, it might depend a lot on NYC regulations. The city council has some strict testing rules. They seem to be very wary of autonomous vehicles. So I suspect it may take time to convince them to allow a public ride-hailing service.

I'm sure human taxi drivers don't want Waymo to deploy robotaxis. So, it is going to be a fight as to who can bribe the city council more.

Besides Taxi medallions are a hot commodity going for $100k+ each. There are a lot of monied interests not just poor taxi drivers who will be fighting Waymo.

ps : Medallions used to go for upto $1M in 2013 !

Often asked: How much does a new york city taxi medallion cost?

Often asked: How much does a new york city taxi medallion cost?

lastfiascorun.com

 

[diplomat33]

I'm sure human taxi drivers don't want Waymo to deploy robotaxis. So, it is going to be a fight as to who can bribe the city council more.

Yeah, probably. That's politics. Although I think Waymo probably has some pretty deep pockets.

 

[EVNow]

Yeah, probably. That's politics. Although I think Waymo probably has some pretty deep pockets.

But clever people can make deep pockets of the opponent a political liability.

How Kshama Sawant Defeated Amazon

Amazon went all out to defeat Seattle’s socialist city council member Kshama Sawant in this year’s election — but Sawant emerged victorious. In an interview with Jacobin, she reflects on why it’s so important to pick fights with capitalists, and what every socialist running for office should know.

www.jacobinmag.com

ps :

AOC Is Right: Amazon Jobs Aren't Worth $3 Billion In Corporate Welfare

Deals like the one struck between Amazon and New York showcase a national policy disease that rides the paychecks of taxpayers.

thefederalist.com