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Poll: Which sub-$40k 200+ mile BEV will come out first?

Discussion in 'Electric Vehicles' started by Kipernicus, Feb 9, 2015.


Which sub-$40k 200 mile BEV will come out first?

  1. Tesla Model 3

  2. Chevy Bolt

  3. Leaf 2

  4. Other American

    0 vote(s)
  5. Other German

  6. Other Japanese

  7. Other Chinese

    0 vote(s)
  8. Other

  1. Kipernicus

    Kipernicus Model S Res#P1440

    Dec 2, 2009
    Belmont, CA
    #1 Kipernicus, Feb 9, 2015
    Last edited: Feb 9, 2015
    Just for grins and bragging rights, let's have a poll about which car will be first.

    I know we like to sweat the details, so here is my attempt to constrain the parameters:
    When I say "base car" below I mean the cheapest configuration of a car that can go 200 miles.
    1. Price: under $40k USD after federal incentive. Even if the incentive moves to, say, $10k and the base starting price is 39.999 after $10k incentive that counts.
    2. Range: current EPA rating at time of vehicle sales should be 200 miles or better for the base car
    3. BEV: it should be a pure BEV, no range extender like gas, diesel, or fuel cell
    4. Date: It needs to be owned or leased by an "average" consumer in the US. CEOs, ex-CEOs, EVPs, VCs, journalists, etc don't count.
    5. Availability: I think if it has limited availability that is ok. It is reasonable to start slow and limit sales to certain states. I hope that availability scales to nationwide and global soon afterwards, but that is beyond the scope of this poll.

    Other stuff beyond the scope of this poll: availability/cost of quick charging network; upsized battery capacities at additional cost; cheaper versions of the car with sub-200 mile range; "must-have" options that would push the base car above $40k

    Of course, we won't know the final results of who wins this poll for several years, so be patient!
    I'm sure there are more details and caveats, so please let me know and I will consider adding to this first post.

  2. FLDarren

    FLDarren Member

    Apr 19, 2014
    Seminole, Fl.
    I voted Model 3 because I do believe Tesla will get this timeline correct and there won't be a delay. Hopefully they've learned.
  3. EarlyAdopter

    EarlyAdopter Active Member

    Jun 24, 2012
    Redmond, WA
    Tesla. Model 3.


  4. MarkR

    MarkR Member

    Mar 24, 2012
    N. Scottsdale, AZ
    I would like to have have said Tesla Model 3, but I just voted, "other German" because Tesla tends to delay models and I'm fearful that the Model 3 may be delayed until 2018 or 2019.

    That would give Audi or BMW plenty of time of come up with a viable car and it's pretty obvious that BMW is aggressively pursuing new models that are at least partially electric. (i3, i8)

    It appears that the German government is aggressively pushing an EV infrastructure and I gotta think that they are working in concert with their auto manufacturers. Germany is small enough that a 200 mile (322km) car would satisfy their public especially given that they are building out the charging system on the 8,000 miles of the Bundesautobahnen (federal highway system).
  5. Rifleman

    Rifleman Now owns 2 Model S's!!!

    Nov 29, 2011
    Harrison Ohio
    I think GM may beat Tesla to market with a <40k 200 mile range EV, but I think the Bolt will be a rushed product available only in limited quantities and limited markets for the first year or two that it is available. GM has not solved the battery supply issues that will come with a mass market EV, and thus will not be able to produce the Bolt in meaningful quantities at launch. Throwing a large battery into a small car to make a 200 mile range EV is not hard for a company like GM, but building a good car with the infrastructure to support it in large numbers is a challenge that I don't think they are up to.
  6. ggies07

    ggies07 Supporting Member

    Nov 8, 2012
    Ft. Worth, TX
    #6 ggies07, Feb 10, 2015
    Last edited: Feb 10, 2015
    This is a tough one. The Bolt is just a concept right now, so who knows. I do think someone will win the battle of getting the 200 mile EV out there first, but Tesla will dominate and win the war over sales of the 200 mile EV.
  7. ItsNotAboutTheMoney

    ItsNotAboutTheMoney Well-Known Member

    Jul 12, 2012
    No idea.
    I think the Model 3 will be released but not be under $40k.
    I think the Bolt will be released but not actually be a 200 mile BEV.
    I think the Leaf 2 will be released but won't be a 200 mile BEV.
  8. jerjozwik

    jerjozwik Active Member

    May 12, 2014
    san gabriel valley
    bolt. im sure GM will hit the bullet points, but the car itself will probably be unimpressive. the leaf will be a evolution of a car you have to sorta be into. not sure about the 200 miles.

    the tesla... when ever it actually comes out will probably be well thought out and well designed. i can already picture the bolt vs model 3 ads coming from GM, akin to the f-150 vs silverado campaign.
  9. cpa

    cpa Active Member

    May 17, 2014
    Central Valley
    I think Tesla has more to lose if they rush the Model III to market too quickly. Many of us who purchased the S have experienced issues that are vexing and frustrating despite Tesla's exceptional service to remedy these issues. Tesla is growing at break-neck speed, and with rapid growth comes inefficiencies and poor training and poor hiring. Elon Musk is a perfectionist, and he is the face of Tesla. The Model III in theory could be ready for sale by 2017, but could easily be delayed by 18 months or so while Tesla tries to make the ownership experience the best in the entire automotive world. Things like no more 12V problems--10-15% (guessing here) failure rate on the drive train/motor--misaligned body parts--charging issues. Some have already been corrected on the S, but Model III purchasers might have a lower tolerance for these sorts of things.

    The Model III will be intended for the "average" consumer who like most of us when we bought the Roadster or the S, would drive our ICE until the needle reached empty. Would take in the car to the dealer for warranty work or service, usually 10-20 miles away from our homes and frequently closer. They will not spend time perusing forums and websites to ask questions and get information. All they will want to do is plug in at night, unplug in the morning, and go.

    As things stand today, service centers are few and far between. Many owners have posted that a service appointment can take weeks. Ranger service can be sketchy whether prepaid or not. Software updates have been known to have bugs in them. So far Tesla has shown a gosh-darn good track record in dealing with these inconveniences, but will have to do even better once the Model III comes out, even if the initial production is 25,000-35,000 units per year.

    On the other hand the conventional automotive manufacturers have less to lose since they have a fleet of ICE cars to pick up the slack if their Bolt or other model suffers from poor design or software issues or bad batteries. They can take a "hit" to the bottom line and continue their research.
  10. Newb

    Newb Member

    May 13, 2014
    I'm quite sure, Nissan will be first to deliver on the promise of a sub-40k$ 200-mile BEV. The reason is quite simple: The Nissan Leaf was the first affordable compact-sized BEV on the roads and thus far the most successful one in this price range under 40k. They've had a lot of time to work on the next-gen Leaf which might come in 2016 with more than one battery size option. It's likely that the top version will get a higher capacity and deliver about 200 miles of range.

    One comment on the poll, though: I find it disturbing that we're about to compare the Chevy Bolt (which is a sub-compact size car), the Leaf (compact size) and the Tesla Model 3 (mid-sized sedan à la BMW 3 series)... it's a much more difficult task to build a 200-mile range, sub-40k$, battery-electric BMW 3 series or Mercedes C-Class than a Chevy Cruze or Sonic, Toyota Corolla or Yaris or Honda Civic. Tesla is clearly aiming much higher than the rest of the auto industry in this regard.

    Thus, compared to Model 3 there's nothing comparable on the horizon, yet.
  11. ReddyLeaf

    ReddyLeaf Member

    Mar 19, 2014
    Pasco, WA
    Interesting poll. I went with the Bolt, but with these clarifications:
    Leaf 2: 1st to market, priced the lowest, but not make 200 mi EPA (only 160-180)
    Bolt: will only sell in limited markets (CA) and small numbers like the current Spark.
    T3: last, cost the most, with so many options that the avg selling price will be $60K
  12. wallet.dat

    wallet.dat Member

    Sep 4, 2013
    Chevrolet Bolt. Because Chevrolet will rush it to market even if it means cutting corners, just for bragging rights. Tesla will take the necessary time to ensure that the Model 3 is fully baked before release, even if it means missing a date or two.
  13. stopcrazypp

    stopcrazypp Well-Known Member

    Dec 8, 2007
    I would vote for Leaf too if forced to pick one. The next gen was supposed to launch this year if Nissan was on schedule based on their plans back in 2009. Of course they have since said they don't have hard launch date ("couple of years") that's why I don't really want to vote. #2 I would pick Model 3, last is Bolt (or whatever the production version will be). This is all based on information known since today. GM fans say maybe GM will make a production announcement at the Chicago auto show.

    BTW my criteria is 200-ish miles of range. I don't expect Leaf and Bolt to actually hit that (esp. EPA) but will be in the ballpark (at minimum twice what the Leaf and Spark EV gets today).
  14. glhs272

    glhs272 Unnamed plug faced villian

    Aug 21, 2013
    Burlington, WI
    I voted for Tesla Model 3. Although I expect that the Nissan Leaf 2 will be released before the Model 3, it will not be a true 200 mile BEV (200+ EPA rated). They will promote it as a 200 mile EV, like they did with the original leaf being a 100 mile EV. I expect the leaf will double the current Leaf range (150 to 180 mile range). I expect the Bolt to come out after the leaf, but maybe before the Model 3. However the Bolt will not be a true 200 mile EV either, although GM will market the Bolt heavily as a 200 mile EV, it will just be marketing speak (i.e. a lie). Tesla originally marketed the Model S as a 300 mile EV, which it is not either. So, Tesla doesn't have clean hands in this either. I do expect the Model 3 to be a real 200 mile BEV, with range being basically about the same as my current 60kwh.
  15. EVNow

    EVNow Active Member

    Sep 5, 2009
    Seattle, WA
    It is interesting that Bolt is actually been introduced as a EPA 200 mile car. Will the batteries be dense enough to fit 50+ kWh into a car that size ?

    Leaf is said to be "double" the range - so 160+ miles EPA. That sounds more doable. Will Nissan have higher battery options - like 60 kWh - in that small space ?

    The big problem for Model 3 - whenever it comes out, will be the price. It won't be < $40k.
  16. VolkerP

    VolkerP EU Model S P-37

    Jul 6, 2011
    I went with the Bolt. I don't expect this to be a desirable car when compared to the Model 3 - but that was not the question.
    The Leaf 2 will fall short of 200 miles EPA range.

    For the German car makes, I am afraid I will have to cool down MarkR's optimism. Things look gloomy here. PHEV is the declared strateg until 2020, BEV is only for compliance cars in CAFE markets which require a zero emission quota.
  17. DuncanWatson

    DuncanWatson Member

    Apr 3, 2012
    Seattle, WA
    I went with the Leaf 2 but I think the hard line of 200 miles EPA pollutes the poll. I don't think the Leaf or the Bolt will make it and wonder if the Model 3 will as well at the lowest option. EPA mileage testing for EVs has been getting odd and I don't even know if the test will be the same as it is now.
  18. Larry93428

    Larry93428 Member

    Feb 26, 2014
    Cambria California, United States
    Very good comments in all the above.
    My vote is Model 3 as only Tesla has the commitment and the facilities to deliver 200+.
    All "dealerships" can offer charging and the manufacturers can rationalize the shorter range of their cars.
    The "dealer" giveth and the "dealer" taketh; they can shut down their chargers after EV goes away. ("No big deal, glad that's over.")
    Tesla continues to build Superchargers and will give us the true 200+ EV.
    Go Tesla!
  19. 1208

    1208 Active Member

    Dec 22, 2014
    Don't mean to be pedantic but Nissan has released a 2011 leaf, and a 2nd gen in 2013. So do you mean a 3rd gen or a completely new model Leaf? I voted for Leaf anyway.
  20. Kipernicus

    Kipernicus Model S Res#P1440

    Dec 2, 2009
    Belmont, CA
    That's a good point. I guess I am thinking of a completely new model Leaf. Ghosn has said they are working on one with much more range, right?
    While Nissan hasn't announced any concept car or prototype, hopefully the Bolt will prod them to shoot for the 200 mark.

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