Elon stated (on the record) that before end of this year, FSD will be "much safer than a human driving" and that he "would be shocked" if FSD does not reach Level 4 autonomous driving is not reached by Dec 31 2022. What say you?
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Elon stated (on the record) that before end of this year, FSD will be "much safer than a human driving" and that he "would be shocked" if FSD does not reach Level 4 autonomous driving is not reached by Dec 31 2022. What say you?
The red part: I can SO see Elon pulling that move in Q4 of this year when pressed on it. "I never said L4 anywhere and everywhere on the globe. I merely referenced the capability being achievable at scale in an exponential manner within a specified radius. And doing so would dramatically support the push toward robotaxi service, a paradigm which would exponentially raise the value of a tesla by margins previously unheard of".L4 implies a limited ODD and the manufacturer can make the ODD whatever they want and still be L4. So depending on the ODD, sure, Tesla could achieve L4 this year. For example, they could pick a 10 sq mi geofenced area in LA where FSD is able to drive with no human intervention and that would technically be L4. Or Tesla could try FSD that works basically everywhere, except maybe certain intersections that are too tricky. Or Tesla could try do FSD everywhere but limited to good weather. There are lots of ways to do the ODD for L4. It really depends on the ODD. But Elon has really talked about FSD being safer than humans in general. He has not talked about any ODD limits. So I think Elon wants to skip L4 and try for L5. But I think it is likely that Tesla will release FSD later this year that works everywhere but still requires active driver supervision. So it will not be L4 or L5.
I'm pretty sure this is the 3rd year i've heard him say this. I believe he's losing touch with the realities of real world human driving. LIstening to the earnings call, i heard a company and a CEO obsessed with autonomy and robotaxis. Whenever i hear any of them talk, it tells me that their end goal is to stop all manual driving. I wonder why exactly this would be. If the answer is for the safety of humanity, i don't buy it.Elon stated (on the record) that before end of this year, FSD will be "much safer than a human driving" and that he "would be shocked" if FSD does not reach Level 4 autonomous driving is not reached by Dec 31 2022. What say you?
I think you bring up a good point about insurance but in my case a 30% savings on my Model Y insurance is less than $300 so that isn't enough at least for me to worry about. It's also interesting that teenagers today don't nearly have the same passion for driving as the baby boomer generation did so many people won't share you concern about not driving. I for one wonder if my young grandchildren (ages 2-8) will drive much anyway especially with both families also owning Teslas and the grandkids have seen my FSD in action. (simple drives only)I'm pretty sure this is the 3rd year i've heard him say this. I believe he's losing touch with the realities of real world human driving. LIstening to the earnings call, i heard a company and a CEO obsessed with autonomy and robotaxis. Whenever i hear any of them talk, it tells me that their end goal is to stop all manual driving. I wonder why exactly this would be. If the answer is for the safety of humanity, i don't buy it.
When a global figure such as Elon, repeats something over and over for years, it starts to imitate some great truth or fact. It started before him, but this great truth is that autonomy is the future. No one in the future will drive themselves, except a few enthusiasts, like those that own and ride horses. I call bullshit on this.
Thankfully, i don't believe FSD will be much safer than humans by the end of the year. If that ever does happen, we are in danger of losing another liberty. Not that it will be taken away explicitly, but Tesla insurance or something like it will be required. We will certainly be free to take manual control of the car, but our insurance bill will reflect the number of times we do that (and also how we drive on manual override). We will be become prisoners of autonomy by default, unless we are wealthy enough not to care about our insurance bill.
Thankfully, i don't believe FSD will be much safer than humans by the end of the year. If that ever does happen, we are in danger of losing another liberty. Not that it will be taken away explicitly, but Tesla insurance or something like it will be required. We will certainly be free to take manual control of the car, but our insurance bill will reflect the number of times we do that (and also how we drive on manual override). We will be become prisoners of autonomy by default, unless we are wealthy enough not to care about our insurance bill.
My primary complaint with FSD Beta (and the reason I consider it 100% useless to me at this point) is how it handles uncontrolled (and by that I mean things like 4-way stops, T-intersections, and roundabouts) intersections. I am wondering what your experience is, and if it's just me and any unique characteristics about the places where I drive.Many seems to think that FSD value is all or nothing, that it is only of value if L4 FSD is fully achieve. Personally, I think there is still a huge value to FSD when FSD can take over majority of the task of driving and leaving the driver to be "in command" of the vehicle like the captain of a ship. On my daily commute using FSD, we are basically already there now with 10.9. The lion share of my disengagement these days are related to stupid lane choices, and to tell the car it's safe to make the turn/intersection sooner than it can make that determination.
When did he say level 4? They aren’t even working on level 4…Elon stated (on the record) that before end of this year, FSD will be "much safer than a human driving" and that he "would be shocked" if FSD does not reach Level 4 autonomous driving is not reached by Dec 31 2022. What say you?
I think the point that @hatch is making (and it's an excellent one) is that for those who do not want autonomous driving, or cannot (because their typical trips may not be conducive to autonomous driving, or they live in a very rural area with insufficient density of robotaxis), their insurance rates (because they are not using autonomous driving) may increase significantly. The way I see it working out is that insurance rates will not actually go down (or at least not much), but as the shift to autonomous driving happens, premiums for those who do not take advantage of autonomous driving will skyrocket.But if a FSD system is better than the average driver, that insurance is going to cost way less than it does today.