Pre-Owned MS Pricing

[yobigd20]

I am not sure how you have up with $52k.

By my model :

$118,000
- $7,500
_______________
$110,500

30k miles = 30% depreciation = $33,150
5% drive off penalty = $5,525

Car Value = $110,500 - $33,150 - $5,525 = $71,825

Yobigd20's calculations are:

$103,000 - $7500 (tax credit) - $8240 (1% per month depreciation) - $33,150 (mileage depreciation) = $54,110

If you put on 30k miles in 8 months, you bet your car has depreciated really really bad. Your warranty is just about up. At your rate, warranty will be out in another 5 months.

Tesla will use the "original purchase price" for their calculations and not the "current MSRP". I assume that because when I got Roadster's trade in value, they used the original 2009 purchase price not the latest 2011 model price. Which makes sense because who knows what the "current car" has for options and design changes.

correct, I started from the $103k number and just did a rough estimate without using calc. so that $$ sounds about right. assuming I drive 50k a year, basically this means my $103k (or $118k, however you want to look at it) car is worth $0 in about 18-19 months? I don't think so.

My model comes up with $71,825, and honestly, with 30,000 miles on your car, that is a pretty fair price. Most 8 month old cars will have less than 10,000 miles on them. To reach 30,000 in such a short time, one would have to assume that you have likely used almost an entire battery cycle every day, and would most likely have taken frequent advantage of the supercharger network. Using the battery in this way has the potential to significantly increase the rate capacity degradation. (note, you may not have done this, or that your car has suffered any range decay, but without any details one way or another, most buyers will make this assumption).

I just ranged charged last weekend to 265 rated range. I have seen NO degradation. I do a little over two half cycles daily. 80%->~35%->80%->35% etc. I have never supercharged. Once of those half cycles is on a NEMA 14-50 set to 25amps and the other is on a Chargepoint pulling 30amps. This is consistent 5 days/week plus a few shallow charges cycles on the weekends. In total I have probably ranged charged about 5 times total including last weekend. IMO this battery could last a VERY VERY long time. Mileage doesn't seem to affect rated range degradation. I would have expected to see a few miles lost by now but I have seen none.

 

[Rifleman]

I just ranged charged last weekend to 265 rated range. I have seen NO degradation. I do a little over two half cycles daily. 80%->~35%->80%->35% etc. I have never supercharged. Once of those half cycles is on a NEMA 14-50 set to 25amps and the other is on a Chargepoint pulling 30amps. This is consistent 5 days/week plus a few shallow charges cycles on the weekends. In total I have probably ranged charged about 5 times total including last weekend. IMO this battery could last a VERY VERY long time. Mileage doesn't seem to affect rated range degradation. I would have expected to see a few miles lost by now but I have seen none.

2 half discharge cycles per day is much better than 1 full discharge cycle per day (funny how that math works out) Either way, it sounds like your battery is holding up really well. At this point, we do not have a lot of good data about just how long a 85 kWh Model S battery will last. Your data point is actually really valuable in determining just what a Model S is worth.

My model of 1% depreciation per 1000 miles will hold pretty true up to a certain point, but I am not sure at what point it needs to be adjusted. Clearly your car will not be worthless at 100,000 miles, but the real question is what value will it hold. The fact of the matter is, ICE rarely hold more than 20% of their value at 100,000 miles. The Model S may have a life significantly longer than 100,000 miles (your data point on battery degradation clearly suggests that it will), but until we have more data, the market will most likely price it like an ICE. Your Model S will be one of the first to hit 100,000 miles, so there will probably not be alot of data for you to work with when it comes time to sell. The good news for you is that means you get to name your price, and hope someone bites

An additional factor that will further lower the value of a 100,000 mile Model S is the fact that many banks will not finance a car with over 100,000 miles, and those that do finance high mileage cars normally have $10,000 or less caps on their loan. This cap would cover the majority of the over 100,000 market. Even if your car only has 25% of its value left at 100,000, that still puts it out of the financing range most banks are comfortable with for used cars, further limiting the market, and thus lowering the price.


No matter how you look at it, the pricing models for used Tesla's are by no means set in stone, and it will be interesting to figure out what they are actually worth as more come onto the market.

 

[sub]

I would be interested in at least hearing more about this car from the OP. He is in California as am I, so add in another $2500 in state refund, or shall I say subtract from the value. If it had black or Tan interior I would be really interested, grey is my least favorite. Pics would be nice as well as a full build sheet (I will go back and look at original post to see if I missed this).




Edit - you did list all the options it appears. Would love to see some pics.

 

[omgwtfbyobbq]

I just ranged charged last weekend to 265 rated range. I have seen NO degradation. I do a little over two half cycles daily. 80%->~35%->80%->35% etc. I have never supercharged. Once of those half cycles is on a NEMA 14-50 set to 25amps and the other is on a Chargepoint pulling 30amps. This is consistent 5 days/week plus a few shallow charges cycles on the weekends. In total I have probably ranged charged about 5 times total including last weekend. IMO this battery could last a VERY VERY long time. Mileage doesn't seem to affect rated range degradation. I would have expected to see a few miles lost by now but I have seen none.

This appears to be in line with what's been posted about the chemistry. Provided the the c-rates aren't too high, and the discharge rate isn't past ~80% or so, capacity loss due to cycling is very low. Losses due to aging on the other hand are higher, which is probably why Tesla will warranty the pack for an unlimited number (theoretically) of miles, for a limited time (8 years).

 

[trigga71]

Since Super Charging isn't yet available every where do you think that helps the value where can charge and hurts where you can't? Since I'm looking for used and in an area that isn't yet up running it doesn't make a difference (to me at this point) if one S60 is SC enabled over the other, I'm still "stuck" either way.

 

[Jace_91]

Since Super Charging isn't yet available every where do you think that helps the value where can charge and hurts where you can't? Since I'm looking for used and in an area that isn't yet up running it doesn't make a difference (to me at this point) if one S60 is SC enabled over the other, I'm still "stuck" either way.

I don't think it makes a huge difference, unlike some options which are very expensive to add afterwards, parking sensors etc., Supercharging can be enabled by a software update, so I would say it holds its value pretty well. If you don't have any superchargers in your area though it would just help me decide between two cars if the only difference was supercharging.

 

[NoMoGas]

Put it on ebay, 10 day auction with free shipping (wont cost over 1500 for entire US) ... let the market do its job, you will get whatever the market will pay. LOTS of pics

 

[Seven7]

This could be debated until the end of time... To get the "real" market value it would have to go on e-bay motors along with every other site like it for 14 days.

I know someone will want to debate this post....

- - - Updated - - -

Just looked on the E-Bay motors Tesla page, the P85s are selling at a premium, BUT YOU CAN HAVE ONE RIGHT NOW, JUST CLICK THE "BUY IT NOW BUTTON" :tongue:

 

[Adden Lee]

PM me OP if you still have the car for sale

 

[Electroman]

I posted this in another thread..

I think we are all playing this game with ICE mindsets. Consider a Model S85 with 3years / 100K miles / 200 mile range. It is this last parameter, 'range' the most significant parameter I would consider.

This is how I would price it:

A new 60 kWh has the same 200 mile range with $70K price tag. In essence I am getting the range of a new S60 with the wear and tear of other components, which in an EV should not be significant. So I would perhaps pay upto 60% of the price of a new S60, which would be $42K. Considering today’s EV market that is a great price. Now let us not confuse with Gen3 which may (or may not) hit the same price target and range, but that is a smaller car without the bells and whistles of an ‘S’.

In other words we could use this formula (I just made it up) for cars that are 50K miles and above on the odo:

Mileage penalty: $0.20 per mile
Range penalty: $250 per mile (from 265 EPA).

So a S85 priced new at $85K, with 100k miles on the odo :

-With 220 mile range would sell at: $48, 750
-With 200 mile range would sell at : $43,750
-With 180 mile range would sell at: $38,750
-With 100 mile range would sell at $18,750

$18K is a steal for 100 mile range EV. So we can perhaps tweak the range penalty with an additional factor to offset that so that an 100 mile range, 100K mikes Model S can be sold at 25K or above.

At the end of the day, it is all about range and less about the miles you have on the odo.

 

[bhuwan]

I posted this in another thread..

I think we are all playing this game with ICE mindsets. Consider a Model S85 with 3years / 100K miles / 200 mile range. It is this last parameter, 'range' the most significant parameter I would consider.

This is how I would price it:

A new 60 kWh has the same 200 mile range with $70K price tag. In essence I am getting the range of a new S60 with the wear and tear of other components, which in an EV should not be significant. So I would perhaps pay upto 60% of the price of a new S60, which would be $42K. Considering today’s EV market that is a great price. Now let us not confuse with Gen3 which may (or may not) hit the same price target and range, but that is a smaller car without the bells and whistles of an ‘S’.

In other words we could use this formula (I just made it up) for cars that are 50K miles and above on the odo:

Mileage penalty: $0.20 per mile
Range penalty: $250 per mile (from 265 EPA).

So a S85 priced new at $85K, with 100k miles on the odo :

-With 220 mile range would sell at: $48, 750
-With 200 mile range would sell at : $43,750
-With 180 mile range would sell at: $38,750
-With 100 mile range would sell at $18,750

$18K is a steal for 100 mile range EV. So we can perhaps tweak the range penalty with an additional factor to offset that so that an 100 mile range, 100K mikes Model S can be sold at 25K or above.

At the end of the day, it is all about range and less about the miles you have on the odo.

How do you deal with the differences in range shown on the dash between software updates?
I've seen a few MS's with 5.6 and none of them are getting 265on a range charge! (vs 4.5).
Heck, my own car was getting 235 on 4.5 (90%) and now, its 227 on 5.6!

 

[Electroman]

Bhuwan: you say range charge (which I mean that as to be 100%) and then after that I see you mention 90% charge. There should be NO change in the range shown between software updates on a 100% well-balanced battery pack. 100% charge means full charge irrespective of what version of software you are running.

The model needs tweaking because prices don't fall linearly with mileage or to the decrease in range, but essentially my point is a used Model S pricing should have a significant bearing only on the range available and less so on the mileage on the Odo. Atleast that is how I would price one if I were to buy one and I would not be carried away by high mileage on the Odo. For instance I have a Leaf with 25K miles that runs exactly like new, but severely degraded battery with only 78% battery capacity. I can tell you I can't sell it for anything more than 40% of its purchase price. If one were to purely go by mileage I should get much more, but I won't.

 

[speedyellow08]

Bhuwan: you say range charge (which I mean that as to be 100%) and then after that I see you mention 90% charge. There should be NO change in the range shown between software updates on a 100% well-balanced battery pack. 100% charge means full charge irrespective of what version of software you are running.

The model needs tweaking because prices don't fall linearly with mileage or to the decrease in range, but essentially my point is a used Model S pricing should have a significant bearing only on the range available and less so on the mileage on the Odo. Atleast that is how I would price one if I were to buy one and I would not be carried away by high mileage on the Odo. For instance I have a Leaf with 25K miles that runs exactly like new, but severely degraded battery with only 78% battery capacity. I can tell you I can't sell it for anything more than 40% of its purchase price. If one were to purely go by mileage I should get much more, but I won't.

@mkjayakumar... at this rated range the odds of you buying a model S is slim to none. "Good deal", " Steal" is not how general population shop for cars. Buyers can dream about "Good deals", " Steals" but sellers dream about selling theirs for "Good deal" and "Steal". Fair market value is the one makes the difference in shopping.

 

[Electroman]

Either I didn't state my point well, or you misunderstood. In fact I am making your (sellers) case.

My point is, a high mileage Tesla (more than 50k or 100k miles) should command a much higher price range than an equivalent ICE car because miles on the Odo does not mean much for an EV, whereas range means a lot. The 'range' parameter should dominate the price calculation and not so much the miles on the Odo. I gave my Leaf as an example of fairly low mileage (25k) but a ton of battery degradation that i cannot expect to sell it without a big loss ( mine is Lease though and the loss is for NMAC).

My comment about 'a steal', is exactly to illustrate your point that selling a high mileage tesla with ICE mindset will be a loss for the seller and a steal for the buyer, as long as the range has not degraded appreciably. So it should be able to command a much higher price.

I am just providing a thought process on the price range for a high mileage (50k+ miles) Tesla.

 

[trigga71]

I agree some. My main concern if a high mile S85 came up would be how much longer life does the battery have and how much is a replacement battery.

 

[Electroman]

It is my understanding (i could be wrong though) that an 85kWh battery degraded to 60kWh capacity has the same lifetime characteristics as a new 60kWh battery.

 

[brianman]

It is my understanding (i could be wrong though) that an 85kWh battery degraded to 60kWh capacity has the same lifetime characteristics as a new 60kWh battery.

My understanding is slightly different. Elaborating...

Vehicle A - 85 kWh vehicle, degraded to 55 kWh
Vehicle B - 60 kWh vehicle, degraded to 55 kWh

The degradation for Vehicle A will be slower from this point than for Vehicle B. Why? Because the degradation curve is non-linear, and Vehicle A has chewed up more of the "fast degradation" part of the curve.

 

[Ting Louie]

Here is a tesla 40 that just sold for $73k, no air suspension $2500 and no rear facing seats $2500, it does however have panoramic sunroof and 21" wheels so it's wash
ebay item # 251358524634


http://www.ebay.com/itm/25135852463...l?_sacat=0&_from=R40&_nkw=251358524634&_rdc=1http://m.ebay.com/itm/251358524634?cmd=VIDESC

 

[colinb]

Has anyone seen whether there is a premium for a Signature edition? My wife just got into med school and we are shipping off to New Zealand in February. I'm looking to post S2108 up soon with around 38,000km (mostly highway) on it.

 

[yobigd20]

Has anyone seen whether there is a premium for a Signature edition? My wife just got into med school and we are shipping off to New Zealand in February. I'm looking to post S2108 up soon with around 38,000km (mostly highway) on it.

I wouldn't think so. IMO besides the color option there's nothing really unique about it. In fact, the earliest cars were built with some prototype parts and panel misalignments and other various things that were tweaked and further refined as they got better at manufacturing. So in one sense, your paying a premium for a lesser quality vehicle that has nothing "uniquely signature" about it besides the name. Purely IMO. In other words, if I was buying , I would offer less for a sig than I would for a higher standard prod VIN with the same mileage.