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Who can catch Tesla ? They seem to be experiencing exponential growth…..
- Thread starter Stuart Watson
- Start date
Not anymore. Sold it at end of Jan 2019. It was my "range extender" when I had a '13 Leaf (first one I got at end of July 2013). That hybrid sat idle, sometime for months at a time since I primarily drove my Leafs. I sold that hybrid a bit past the 13 year-old mark. Bought new in Jan 2006.You own a Hybrid ? … imagine my surprise
I've been ICEV-less in my household of 1 since end of Jan 2019. I'm on my 4th BEV (1st returned at end of lease, 2nd sold, 3rd was bought back related to a recall at the 3 year mark; 4th I'm leasing right now as a temp EV).
But seriously, I can point to folks at my work where we have free EV juice and hundreds of plug-in vehicles in our EV/PHEV registry who have gotten ICEVs in the past 1.5 years. I can point you to an internal Slack channel where people talk cars and many of them don't want EVs and don't care about nor for them.
Remember, I'm in California and many of the above folks in that channel are still in California.
I'm on other non-car forums and just today, there's car chatter of someone wanting to replace his '11 Nissan Versa with failed AC compressor ($2K to fix) and looking for another Versa. Then, folks who chimed in and named models of vehicles named... you guessed it, ONLY ICEVs.
In the above forum (TivoCommunity, happy hour area (need to have a free account to to see it)), there's a perpetual "what are you driving thread?" One guy posted about his wife in April 2022 getting a new Acura MDX. I checked and he bought a Model S new in 2013 and sold in 2021. Not sure what he has now.
My next door neighbor for some reason has 5 cars for 2 drivers. They've only ever had a single EV (currently a '22 Bolt EV). The rest are ICEV. They've had a previous Bolt and a Leaf before that. The husband seems to gallivant around in a relatively new guzzler Silverado despite gas being over $5/gal here. I've pointed out to the husband that even at crazy Pacific Gouge & Extort electricity prices, driving that Bolt is cheaper than the Silverado even when gas was $4/gal. (We have a 19 cent/kWh DC FC within 5 miles of home that is cheaper than charging at home.)
Apparently, he doesn't even usually go very far and not beyond where that DC FC is (he knows where it is too).
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Looking into the future is difficult but... I think that EVs will take over from ice, firstly in Europe, probably the UK first. Of course China could be the first...America will take longer, the cultural attachment to ice is stronger. For example Europe switched to diesel years ago (and are now switching back) and America never did. But change will come and once the tipping point has been reached then the trend will accelerate very very rapidly
^^^
Exactly, it will take a long time for the US. The US was the largest auto market by country but China passed us.
And, China has a done a lot of prodding and pushing consumers towards New energy vehicles in China - Wikipedia. The govt there can do whatever they want, so they sure as heck can force the market a certain direction.
For Japan, it seems the BEV movement is stalled at low penetration. And, as I said, in many markets with low incomes and/or poor electrical infrastructure, BEVs are MUCH harder to sell there.
I posted about this guy who lives in Frackville, Pennsylvania at ABG: Americans demand 'aggressive' climate action — as long as it doesn't cost much - Page 2 - My Nissan Leaf Forum where the Chevy dealer that's been going to for over 32 years will not carry Bolts. I haven't checked on him about that dealer lately but he posted in Dec 2021:
"I have to note here that I am not anti EV it is just a fact that I have yet to see a Tesla automobile yet. I just want to make that clear. The cash I have for my heavy duty GM pickup I have been trying to get built, I can buy two bolts or one Tesla but it is not useful for what I need and where I live."
In Jan 1, 2022, he posted:
"Interesting the chargers at the Dutch Kitchen are for Tesla which is smart as Frackville is right off I-81. Like I said I pass this everyday coming home from work. I pass it in the morning but that is around 5AM and it is not open. Not very many chargers in my county though. I see they put one in the new rebuilt parking garage in Pottsville.
I used the Plug Share link cwerdna posted and I changed it to my zip code.
Dutch Kitchen - Free Electric Car Charging - 433 S Lehigh Ave, Frackville, PA 17931, USA - Restaurant - PlugShare
So maybe someday I will see a Tesla charging at the Dutch Kitchen when I am passing by. Just wondering can a Chevy Bolt use these as this is where I seen the two Bolts so far."
That guy has worked at coal mines before and might still work at one.
Since I can't edit my old posts, BTW, I've only driven about 96K electric only miles spanning my (3 former + 1 current) BEVs.
Exactly, it will take a long time for the US. The US was the largest auto market by country but China passed us.
And, China has a done a lot of prodding and pushing consumers towards New energy vehicles in China - Wikipedia. The govt there can do whatever they want, so they sure as heck can force the market a certain direction.
For Japan, it seems the BEV movement is stalled at low penetration. And, as I said, in many markets with low incomes and/or poor electrical infrastructure, BEVs are MUCH harder to sell there.
I posted about this guy who lives in Frackville, Pennsylvania at ABG: Americans demand 'aggressive' climate action — as long as it doesn't cost much - Page 2 - My Nissan Leaf Forum where the Chevy dealer that's been going to for over 32 years will not carry Bolts. I haven't checked on him about that dealer lately but he posted in Dec 2021:
"I have to note here that I am not anti EV it is just a fact that I have yet to see a Tesla automobile yet. I just want to make that clear. The cash I have for my heavy duty GM pickup I have been trying to get built, I can buy two bolts or one Tesla but it is not useful for what I need and where I live."
In Jan 1, 2022, he posted:
"Interesting the chargers at the Dutch Kitchen are for Tesla which is smart as Frackville is right off I-81. Like I said I pass this everyday coming home from work. I pass it in the morning but that is around 5AM and it is not open. Not very many chargers in my county though. I see they put one in the new rebuilt parking garage in Pottsville.
I used the Plug Share link cwerdna posted and I changed it to my zip code.
Dutch Kitchen - Free Electric Car Charging - 433 S Lehigh Ave, Frackville, PA 17931, USA - Restaurant - PlugShare
So maybe someday I will see a Tesla charging at the Dutch Kitchen when I am passing by. Just wondering can a Chevy Bolt use these as this is where I seen the two Bolts so far."
That guy has worked at coal mines before and might still work at one.
Since I can't edit my old posts, BTW, I've only driven about 96K electric only miles spanning my (3 former + 1 current) BEVs.
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A list of the best selling vehicles is not a good indicator for future sales trends. It's more accurate to look at the percentage of total new vehicle sales divided between ICE and EV's over many years while comparing their trajectories over time.
Using the USA as an example, the percentage of new market sales for EV's is increasing exponentially YoY while the ICE marketshare is declining YoY. This has been happening for several years now. If EV marketshare continues to increase like this, then YES, within five years or so there will be MORE EV sales per year than ICE sales in the US.
3% per year becomes 6%, then next year 10%, then 20%, then 35%, and then over 50% and suddenly there are more new EV's sold per year than ICE sales. New EV's are coming to the market every month now, China will be entering the US market sooner than most believe, both Ford and GM are accelerating their EV production and Tesla continues to more than double their production YoY and they alone will very likely be selling over 10 million EV's per year five years from now in 2027.
It doesn't matter how unlikely this "feels" right now, it doesn't matter what types of cars are in the top 25 bestselling lists today, the trends predict the times are changing. If the trends continue then this WILL happen. It might be a year or two longer than 5 years or it might actual accelerate and happen sooner, but at this point its very unlikely it won't happen. The writing is on the wall so to speak.
EV uptake is expanding, but in my view has some way to go before becoming mainstream. The ultimate potential market is huge, but there are human, economic and technical barriers to getting to a situation of EV dominance.
There is portion of the vehicle-owning population who will probably never own an EV. I know at least one person myself who is in the category of ‘I will only let go of my gas vehicle when you pry the steering wheel from my cold, dead hands’. They love their ICE vehicles and actively hate EVs, seemingly out of principle. Barring a ‘blinding light on the road to Damascus’ moment for such people, they are not going to become part of the EV market. My own guess though is that this is a pretty small proportion of the population, thus the potential for mass EV adoption does exist.
Then there are the categories of people who are misinformed about EVs or simply uniformed. There are vehicle owners that could eventually could be part of the EV market, but who believe that EVs simply are not ready yet - i.e., EVs are for EV ‘hobbyists’ or enviro-warriors who are prepared to severely compromise their mobility. And there are others who have not thought about it even to that degree - they are only barely aware of EVs, aren’t interested in finding out more, and will continue to own ICE vehicles just as a matter of course. My guess is that the proportion of people in these categories is pretty large (I know many) and that it will take some time to before they are willing to adopt EVs.
Then there are categories of persons who would like an EV now, but for whom current EVs are simply too expensive or do not yet quite meet their driving needs. The expense factor is a big one. Unless and until the relative price of EVs comes down, many drivers are likely to be unable or unwilling to buy. Addressing this issue is going to require technological changes, mostly in battery materials and battery production techniques. But driving needs are also a factor. While the current EVs are already very good, and meet or exceed the general practical needs of most drivers (contrary to the impressions of persons in the previous categories), they do not yet meet all needs. Range, especially cold weather range, needs to be improved and fast-charging speeds increased in order for EVs to attract some segments of the driving population.
Finally, there those who would like to buy an EV now, but have to wait - perhaps a couple of years - because of lack of production. Getting back to the original topic of this thread, Tesla seems to be the only company that has yet achieved true mass production. Other manufactures will probably get there too, but it may take a while and not all of them will be able to profitably achieve it. And unless they can do it profitably, it will not be sustained.
So, yes, EV dominance is probably coming, but only eventually, and with delays and challenges along the road.
There is portion of the vehicle-owning population who will probably never own an EV. I know at least one person myself who is in the category of ‘I will only let go of my gas vehicle when you pry the steering wheel from my cold, dead hands’. They love their ICE vehicles and actively hate EVs, seemingly out of principle. Barring a ‘blinding light on the road to Damascus’ moment for such people, they are not going to become part of the EV market. My own guess though is that this is a pretty small proportion of the population, thus the potential for mass EV adoption does exist.
Then there are the categories of people who are misinformed about EVs or simply uniformed. There are vehicle owners that could eventually could be part of the EV market, but who believe that EVs simply are not ready yet - i.e., EVs are for EV ‘hobbyists’ or enviro-warriors who are prepared to severely compromise their mobility. And there are others who have not thought about it even to that degree - they are only barely aware of EVs, aren’t interested in finding out more, and will continue to own ICE vehicles just as a matter of course. My guess is that the proportion of people in these categories is pretty large (I know many) and that it will take some time to before they are willing to adopt EVs.
Then there are categories of persons who would like an EV now, but for whom current EVs are simply too expensive or do not yet quite meet their driving needs. The expense factor is a big one. Unless and until the relative price of EVs comes down, many drivers are likely to be unable or unwilling to buy. Addressing this issue is going to require technological changes, mostly in battery materials and battery production techniques. But driving needs are also a factor. While the current EVs are already very good, and meet or exceed the general practical needs of most drivers (contrary to the impressions of persons in the previous categories), they do not yet meet all needs. Range, especially cold weather range, needs to be improved and fast-charging speeds increased in order for EVs to attract some segments of the driving population.
Finally, there those who would like to buy an EV now, but have to wait - perhaps a couple of years - because of lack of production. Getting back to the original topic of this thread, Tesla seems to be the only company that has yet achieved true mass production. Other manufactures will probably get there too, but it may take a while and not all of them will be able to profitably achieve it. And unless they can do it profitably, it will not be sustained.
So, yes, EV dominance is probably coming, but only eventually, and with delays and challenges along the road.
The great calling card of the EV is that it can revolutionize pollution free transport while still giving everyone freedom of the open road. Before EVs the most likely solution to mass transport of the future was public transport. Hopefully that message will permeate the debate and people will realize how lucky they have such a viable option
Mengy wrote “
it doesn't matter how unlikely this "feels" right now, it doesn't matter what types of cars are in the top 25 bestselling lists today, the trends predict the times are changing. If the trends continue then this WILL happen. It might be a year or two longer than 5 years or it might actual accelerate and happen sooner, but at this point its very unlikely it won't happen. The writing is on the wall so to speak.
it doesn't matter how unlikely this "feels" right now, it doesn't matter what types of cars are in the top 25 bestselling lists today, the trends predict the times are changing. If the trends continue then this WILL happen. It might be a year or two longer than 5 years or it might actual accelerate and happen sooner, but at this point its very unlikely it won't happen. The writing is on the wall so to speak.
Looking only at percentages is missing the point. Not everyone can afford a BEV at the price points they're selling at. We certainly haven't seen a ton of affordable BEVs over the years. Look at the price of some of cheapest cars and SUVs in the US now:
10 Cheapest New Cars for 2022
The cheapest new car sold in the U.S. is nearly $13,000 cheaper than the average price of a used car.
www.caranddriver.com
20 Cheapest SUVs for 2024 - TrueCar
TrueCar has ranked the cheapest SUVs for April 2024. Research the top-performing vehicles on our list before heading to the dealership!
www.truecar.com
Chinney hit the nail on the head w/the many groups of people who range from completely anti-EV to ignorant or apathetic besides those for which the vehicles don't meet their needs.
I will bet you that what I bolded will NOT happen in the US within 5 years from now, end of July 2027. I'm more than 95% sure of that even if we wait until end of 2027. Let's revisit this at end of July 2027 and in Jan 2028.
You realize what the BEV share of new automobiles in the US is now? You must be completely ignoring people who live in apartments, condos or townhouses or other housing that where they have no ability to charge at home AND have no ability to charge at work. Those folks will be dependent on public charging which ranges from good to zip depending on the area. Given the choice (the US being a free country), those who cannot conveniently charge will just choose ICE.
I'm not even sure that the strong EV market of California can hit over 50% share of BEVs for new automobile sales by end of July 2027. California will likely eventually get there but just not within 5 years.
Do you know how many automobiles are sold in the US in a year? See U.S. vehicle sales 1976-2021 | Statista. Even if we assume that somehow only 12 million new light vehicles are sold a year in the US (we've had about 14 million to 17.x million vehicles per year in the last decade), somehow 6 million of those will be BEVs by 2027? I really doubt it even if you combine Tesla + all the other automakers selling in the US.
You can bet that for the US market, as BEV sales increasingly threaten those entrenched now in the industry (e.g. fossil fuel industry all the way from oil producers down to gas station owners and gasoline truck drivers to auto dealers to garages that service ICEVs, automakers behind on BEVs and anyone who stands to lose if gasoline and diesel sales fall), you will start seeing more and more FUD via PR campaigns, news media, Astroturfing - Wikipedia and so on.
Even, electric utilities will speak up because frankly, many will not be prepared within that time. Not everyone can charge at home and at night besides those who can but will not (e.g. free EV juice at work (raises hand)). We in CA already get hit with Flex Alert: energy conservation tips, save energy on high demand days in California almost every summer. https://www.caiso.com/Documents/FlexAlertNoticesIssuedFrom1998-Present.pdf is the history. Ignore 2000 and 2001. I was out of CA at the time and 2001 for sure was caused by the Enron energy scandal.
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Why are you so evasive and vague in your predictions? What % of the global automobile market sales will be pure BEVs in 5 years? How about 7 since you say a year or two longer?Mengy wrote “
it doesn't matter how unlikely this "feels" right now, it doesn't matter what types of cars are in the top 25 bestselling lists today, the trends predict the times are changing. If the trends continue then this WILL happen. It might be a year or two longer than 5 years or it might actual accelerate and happen sooner, but at this point its very unlikely it won't happen. The writing is on the wall so to speak.
Or, why don't you just name some countries or regions? Willing to predict that 50.1+% of new consumer automobile sales in the US will be pure BEVs by July 2027? As I said, no, won't happen.
Or how about July 2029? Still not likely.
For Japan by July 2027? No way. July 2029? Still no way.
How about India or South Asia in general? How about Africa? How about the Middle East, esp. oil rich countries? How about Central and South America esp. poorer countries there?
China? Maybe.
Even my bar of 50.1% or more BEVs for new vehicle sales is much lower than yours in post 99 of "in 5 years few will want ice cars !"
I think that the amazing thing about EVs is the charging network...it’s not pie in the sky...it’s here and it’s global and it’s growing..fast. And it’s potential is unlimited, every lamppost in the world is a potential charging point. The apartment dwellers and those that live in city centers are going to be the last adopters, but so what, eventually EVs will be practical for them
Because I'm not a crystal ball, I can't see the future precisely as it will happen. But I can read data and analyze trends and measure rates of growth & declines, and the DATA supports BEV sales eclipsing ICE sales (of new vehicles) within the next half decade or so. There is no way to determine if it will be exactly in 5 years, but it will happen sometime around 5 years from now.
You keep making up reasons for it NOT to happen, from your posts above:
- Too many people own apartments
- The ICE industry will fight back and won't allow it
- There aren't enough BEV's in the top 25 best selling cars list
- Electric utilities will speak up and won't be prepared
- Too many groups of people range from completely anti-EV to ignorant or apathetic
- BEV's are too expensive, not enough people can afford them
These are subjective indicators, not predictive. To be blunt, none of the above matters, the DATA is what matters when predicting trendlines.
With regards to the cost of BEV's, economies of scale and declining cost curves will bring the costs to manufacture BEV's down below ICE in the next couple of years. This is also a trendline supported by the data. Once the supply shortages are solved and BEV materials are being made at larger scales we'll see costs of BEV's begin to come down.
All of the reasons you give are true to various degrees, but none of it will be enough to stop the trendlines from progressing the way they are trending. These little reasons will prevent 100% adoption for a very long time most likely, but they won't hold the wave of BEV's below 50%. Not even close.
Like any other exponential growth curve it accelerates past the halfway point but then falls short of and plateaus before 100%. We still have horses in the world, doesn't mean the automobile didn't take over transportation. Flip phones still get sold, doesn't mean their marketshare of new cel sales didn't fall into the very low single digits. There will always be holdouts who either can't or won't buy BEV's, they'll keep buying used ICE cars and pay for expensive gasoline from the few gas stations which still exist once the world has moved on. None of that means the sales trends aren't correct or real.
You are reasoning from emotions, not statistics. Sometimes in life the data, no matter how ludicrous it seems or feels, is simply.... true.
You claim this for the US auto market within 5 years? Ok, let's look at the percentages of new ICEV vs. BEV automobiles in the US at end of July 2027. Let's look at it again at end of 2027, 2028 and 2029.
You and Stuart must just live in bubbles where everyone around them has BEVs, everyone can charge at home or work, can't see why people wouldn't buy BEVs and can't see the industry forces (e.g. fossil fuel industry) that will try very hard to not see their revenues decline besides other factors such as materials and manufacturing capacity + numerous other barriers to BEV leasing and/or ownership.
People who live in apartments in the US, rent, almost never own their units. Even w/o the multi-unit dwelling situation, there are plenty of single family homes who have no garage or have ancient electrical systems. Look at how old the houses are in say https://www.zillow.com/sunset-district-san-francisco-ca/?searchQueryState={"pagination":{},"usersSearchTerm":"Sunset District, San Francisco, CA","mapBounds":{"west":-122.51482688903809,"east":-122.45903694152832,"south":37.72749521953714,"north":37.78924576821579},"regionSelection":[{"regionId":118388,"regionType":8}],"isMapVisible":true,"filterState":{"sort":{"value":"days"},"ah":{"value":true}},"isListVisible":true,"mapZoom":14}. Or, https://www.zillow.com/downtown-san-jose-ca/?searchQueryState={"pagination":{},"usersSearchTerm":"Downtown, San Jose, CA","mapBounds":{"west":-121.94496044750976,"east":-121.83338055249023,"south":37.27738788308459,"north":37.40158494902919},"regionSelection":[{"regionId":273480,"regionType":8}],"isMapVisible":true,"filterState":{"sort":{"value":"days"},"ah":{"value":true}},"isListVisible":true,"mapZoom":13} with many that are both old and have no garages.
The majority of US auto buyers don't really care about the enviromental aspect either, in terms of what vehicles they buy. It's not just the top 25 vehicles. Look at the entire spectrum and all market segments.
Deal!
We'll know before then how the trends are progressing though, my hunch is it will become painfully obvious BEVs will eclipse ICE sales way before it actually happens.
We'll revisit this discussion in 2027.
CWederna .. this is my last reply to you .
Basically; I think you have a LOLLY STICK, JAMMED, IN YOUR “VENDING MACHINE” OF THOUGHT.
I can’t believe you write the crap you do !
EV adoption, as Mengy tried so hard to explain to you, is not uncertain.
Have a look here at the most mature market , (Norway)
Ponder the chart.
Try and understand how, once adoption passes 5% , its accelerates very quickly ;
Basically; I think you have a LOLLY STICK, JAMMED, IN YOUR “VENDING MACHINE” OF THOUGHT.
I can’t believe you write the crap you do !
EV adoption, as Mengy tried so hard to explain to you, is not uncertain.
Have a look here at the most mature market , (Norway)
Ponder the chart.
Try and understand how, once adoption passes 5% , its accelerates very quickly ;
First principles say that once R&D, supply chains, and factories are built and at scale, it will be cheaper to sell/buy a bev than ice. If and when that’s true, ice will decline rapidly. Even though lifetime cost of ev lower, consumers are all about initial cost, but business do care so Amazon, UPS, FedEx etc will go heavily bev as soon as they can. While ice pickups used for towing will be around for a long time, most pickups today are used to commute to work and drop their daughters off at school.
Bruce, you make a good point about those that tow! Boat enthusiasts, caravanners. The future looks challenging for them.
SDRick
Active Member
It's tough to make predictions, especially about the future!
My take is that electric drive trains are superior (especially for urban use) and most are or becoming aware of the fact. My guess is that after a test drive, over 50% today would opt for electric if the price was the same or less.
Adoption rates will vary locally and internationally but a tipping point will be reached whether it's five years, seven years or whatever. If you are that passionate about predictions put a wager on it!. But be careful...
A few years ago I probably would have bet a large portion of my net worth that oil would never go below $5.
My take is that electric drive trains are superior (especially for urban use) and most are or becoming aware of the fact. My guess is that after a test drive, over 50% today would opt for electric if the price was the same or less.
Adoption rates will vary locally and internationally but a tipping point will be reached whether it's five years, seven years or whatever. If you are that passionate about predictions put a wager on it!. But be careful...
A few years ago I probably would have bet a large portion of my net worth that oil would never go below $5.
While the future can be especially difficult to predict 
, my own guess is that the transition to EV dominance unfortunately will be slower that some here are predicting, and for reasons already given in my earlier post and by cwerdna.
One additional thing that I would note is that a quick transition is a bit add odds with the original point taken in this thread, which is that Tesla is way ahead of everyone else in mass production of EVs. While I largely agree with that point, the implications of it pose a problem with EV availability. Tesla simply is not going to be able to supply the world with most of its vehicles even under the most wildly optimistic expansion plans. Meanwhile other new EV manufacturers and legacy vehicle makers have yet not figured out large-scale EV production, and it looks like they will not do so for a little while, let alone figuring out how to do this profitably.
This transition is going to take a while. I would love to be proved wrong about that though. I personally would be all in favour of a very quick movement to EV dominance.
, my own guess is that the transition to EV dominance unfortunately will be slower that some here are predicting, and for reasons already given in my earlier post and by cwerdna.One additional thing that I would note is that a quick transition is a bit add odds with the original point taken in this thread, which is that Tesla is way ahead of everyone else in mass production of EVs. While I largely agree with that point, the implications of it pose a problem with EV availability. Tesla simply is not going to be able to supply the world with most of its vehicles even under the most wildly optimistic expansion plans. Meanwhile other new EV manufacturers and legacy vehicle makers have yet not figured out large-scale EV production, and it looks like they will not do so for a little while, let alone figuring out how to do this profitably.
This transition is going to take a while. I would love to be proved wrong about that though. I personally would be all in favour of a very quick movement to EV dominance.
There are quite a few variables...for example...will European legislation speed up the demise of ice?...will we have a long recession?...and most importantly (I think) is this experiment that some car manufacturers are doing, putting an electric drivetrain in a ice car, if they think that is successful, they could switch all their ice production overnight
